IBMInstitute

forBusiness

Value

|ResearchInsightsTheenterprisein2030Engineered

for

perpetualinnovationHowIBMcanhelpIBM

has

been

providing

expertise

to

help

organizations

winin

themarketplace

formore

thanacentury.Clientscanrealizethepotentialof

AIandbetternavigateachanging

worldusingIBM’s

deep

industry,

functional,

and

technical

expertise;enterprise-grade

technology

solutions;

and

science-basedresearchinnovations.IBMisalsoagloballeaderinquantum

computing,readyto

aid

clients

as

they

embark

on

their

own

quantum

journeys.For

more

information

about

AI

services

from

IBM

Consulting,visit

/services/artificial-intelligence.Formoreinformation

about

AI

solutions

fromIBM

Software,visit

/watson.Formoreinformationabout

AIinnovations

fromIBMResearch,visitresearch./artificial-intelligence.For

more

information

about

quantum

computing

from

IBM,visit

/quantum.1Andy

Baldwin

drives

profitable

growth

throughAI-enabled

offerings,ecosystem

collaboration,and

market

execution.With

three

decades

ofAndy

Baldwinleadershipexperience,hebringsdeepexpertiseGlobalManagingPartner,OfferingsandGrowthinlarge-scaletransformation,multiculturalteamIBMConsultingleadership,and

building

solutions

that

deliver/in/andybaldwin12/measurable

client

value.NeilDharhas30yearsofconsultingexperience,guiding

growth,strengthening

strategic

clientrelationships,and

advancing

industry-ledNeilDhartransformation.He

brings

deep

expertise

inGlobalManagingPartner,Americascommercial

strategy,value

creation,and

applyingIBMConsultinghybrid

cloud,AI,and

emerging

technologies

to/in/neildhar/help

organizations

transform

at

scale.RitikaGunnarbringsmorethanadecadeofIBM

leadership

experience

building

products,leading

technical

services,and

driving

clientoutcomes

in

data,AI,and

automation.WithRitika

GunnarGeneralManager,

DataIBM

Software/in/ritika-gunnar/a

strong

background

in

product

developmentand

customer-focused

innovation,she

helpsorganizations

adopt

data-driven

solutions

thataddress

their

most

complex

challenges.RahulKaliaoverseesend-to-endbusinessandtechnology

consulting

across

a

major

globalmarket.With

extensive

experience

leading

globaltransformation

programs,cloud

and

enterpriseapplication

services,and

high-performing

teams,he

helps

clients

accelerate

change

through

hybrid

cloud,data,and

AI-powered

workflows.RahulKaliaManagingPartnerIBMConsulting,UKandIrelandlinkedin.com/in/rahulkalia-ibm/Abouttheauthors2JamesKavanaughleadsglobalfinancialmanagement,corporate

strategy,and

enterpriseJamesJ.Kavanaughtransformation.With

nearly

three

decades

atSeniorVicePresidentandIBM,hehasheldseniorrolesacrossfinanceandChiefFinancialOfficeroperations,helping

steer

the

company

throughIBMmajor

shifts

in

technology,operating

models,andlinkedin.com/in/james-j-kavanaugh-780629b2/market

dynamics.SalimaLinleadsconsultingstrategy,acquisitions,and

the

IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value.Salima

LinManagingPartner,Strategy,Transformation,Shehasmorethan25yearsofexperienceinMergersandAcquisitions,andThoughtstrategy

and

transformation

and

brings

deepLeadership(IBV)expertise

in

innovation,business

model

design,IBMConsultingand

guiding

organizations

through

complex,linkedin.com/in/salima-lin-b17bb71/technology-driven

change.Joanne

Wright

drives

IBM’s

enterprisetransformation

as

the

company’s“ClientZero”—deliveringUSD4.5billioninsavingswhilesimultaneously

proving

how

AI

and

hybrid

cloudunleash

productivity,innovation,and

growthatglobalscale.LeadingIBM’soperations,procurement,CIO,ChiefDataandAnalyticsOffice,andGlobalRealEstateorganizations,Joannehastransformed

how

the

company

works.Joanne

WrightSeniorVicePresident,Transformation

and

Operations,IBMlinkedin.com/in/joanne-wright4/3Foreword5Executivesummary6Prediction1:Competitive

pressure

willmakebigbets

non-negotiable.12Prediction2:Today’s

productivity

gains

will

fundtomorrow’s

industry

transformation.20Prediction3:ThebestAIwillbeone-of-a-kind.Yourkind.30Prediction4:AI

won’t

do

all

your

thinking

for

you.38Prediction5:Quantum

will

cause

the

next

seismic

shift.48Contents4AIisn’tjust

enhancing

thebusinessmodel.By

2030,it

will

be

the

business

model.Acrossindustries,

thepatternis

the

same:

AIischanging

whatcompaniesdoandhow

theydoit.

Yeta

strikingblind

spotremains.79%ofexecutives

say

AIwill

significantly

contribute

to

their

revenue

by2030,but

only24%can

clearly

seewhere

that

revenue

will

come

from.

That

gap

between

expectations

and

outcomespresents

the

leadership

challenge

of

this

decade.Withnocleardestinationin

sight,

winningCEOs

won’tchasecompetitiveadvantage.

They’llcodeitintoexistence.That

requires

tailored

technology—digital

agents,

AI

models,

and

data

that

capturetheessenceofeachorganization’sbusinesslogic.Genericalgorithmsand

off-the-shelfagentsalone

won’tdifferentiate.

Therealadvantage(andROI)comes

from

AIcapabilities

that

no

competitor

can

replicate.

When

you

encode

your

organization’sintellectual

property

and

proprietary

data

into

every

product,

service,

and

process,youcancreateentirelynewmarketsandrevenue

streams.

That’show

youdisruptyour

business

quarter

after

quarter.It’snot

aboutbolting

AI

onto

existing

ways

of

working.It’spivoting

toan

AI-first

enterprise.Most

executives—57%—now

say

theircompetitiveadvantage

will

come

primarily

from

the

sophistication

of

their

AI

models

by2030.While

people

will

remain

essential,organizations

will

need

to

build

differentiatingtechnology

for

even

the

best

teams

to

deliver

an

edge

in

an

AI-first

world.Acrossindustries,leadersarerecognizing

that

the

futureofbusinessisahybridofpeopleand

software—alotof

software.Everyprocess

thatcanbeautomatedwillbe.Everyrole

willbeenhancedbyintelligent

systems

thatlearnandadapt.But

therealadvantage

willcome

fromhoworganizationsdesignandorchestratethousands

of

AI

agents

that

work

alongside

employees,each

one

tuned

to

thecompany’spurpose,culture,andcompetitiveedge.Leaders

willneed

toask:Where

should

AI

augment

people—and

where

should

people

augment

AI?Themost

successfulorganizations

willreimaginehowhumansandmachinescollaborate

to

achieve

more

than

either

could

on

their

own.It’s

this

dynamic

that

will

define

the

winners

of

the

next

decade:not

deployingthe

most

powerful

technology

and

making

the

biggest

cuts

to

headcount,butbuilding

AI

thatknows

thebusiness,reflectsits

values,

and

amplifies

theexpertise

of

its

people.What

does

that

look

like

in

practice?

The

following

pages

detail

five

predictionsaboutwhat

will

define

the

most

successful

enterprises

in2030—and

the

stepsleaderscan

take

to

turn

an

AI-first

advantageinto

a

transformation

success

story.

|Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5ForewordAI-firstadvantagedemandstailored

technologyMohamadAliSeniorVicePresident

IBMConsulting5

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5Executive

summaryThedawnof

thesmarterenterpriseToday,mostorganizationsareplayingafamiliargame:boltingAIontoexistingprocessestoautomatetasksand

optimize

workflows.It

yields

incremental

gains.It’s

not

too

disruptive.And

it’s

missing

the

pointentirely.The

enterprise

of

the

future

won’t

winby

fine-tuning

today’s

operations.In

tomorrow’s

AI-powered

global

economy,

success

will

flow

fromlightning-fast

decision-makingand

real-time

course-correction.Gettingthere

requires

rewiring

the

enterprise

to

make

it

less

monolithic,moremodular—lesslikehardware,morelike

software.Think

about

what

makes

software

powerful:

You

can

rewrite

any

partof

it

without

rebuilding

from

scratch.Improvements

can

be

rolled

outat

scaleinminutesorhoursrather

thanmonthsor

years.

As

AIembeds

thesecapabilities

into

organizations,

static

design

becomes

dynamic

intelligence;

rigid

structures

give

way

to

fluid

adaptation.What

emerges

is

the

smarter

enterprise.

Where

traditional

enterprises

arebuilt

around

fixed

processes,linear

decision-making,

and

periodic

executivereviews,

the

enterprise

of

the

future

embeds

transformationintoitsoperational

DNA.It

uses

every

interaction,

transaction,

and

outcometocontinuouslybecome

smarter,

faster,andmoreresponsive.“Theconceptof

‘resourceoptimization’

isalready

outdated.Ibelievetheadventof

generativeAIisas

impactfulastheemergenceof

theinternet.”AkiyukiUiOperatingOfficer,Mizuho

Bank6

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5“By2030,insightwillbeeverywhere.Interfaceswillberadicallydifferent,andAIwillactasthebusinessintelligencesystem,decisionengine,andaparticipantinoperations.”ChadGatesManagingDirector,ProntoSoftwareThis

isn’t

just

an

idealistic

vision

of

the

future.IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value(IBM

IBV)research

shows

this

transition

is

alreadyunderway.In

partnership

with

OxfordEconomics,

we

surveyed2,000executivesin

thethird

and

fourth

quarters

of2025

about

how

theyexpect

their

organization

to

evolve

over

the

nextfive

years.Responses

fromleadersacross33geographiesand23industriesreveala

seismicreconfiguring

of

operational

practices

andstrategicassumptions(see“Researchmethodology”on

page56).Among

the

dramatic

findings:by2030,technology

willhaveremovedmanyof

themostpersistent

challenges

enterprises

face

today.Forexample,67%ofexecutives

expect

AI

toeliminate

theresource

and

skillsconstraints

thatcurrently

hold

their

organization

back.

And64%

saycompetitive

advantage

willcome

frominnovation

rather

than

resource

optimization(seeFigure1).“Mymarketingteamssitwithengineeringtobuild

growthintotheproductratherthan

justadvertisingit.In2030,everyeffectivegrowthleaderwilloperatethisway,managingcross-functionalsquadswherethedistinctionbetween

‘building’

and

‘selling’

isblurred.”AlexSchultzVPAnalyticsandCMO,MetaThis

is

the

difference

between

AI-enabledand

AI-first.Instead

of

using

quarterly

strategysessions

toanalyzemarketchanges,

thesmarter

enterprise

processes

market

signalscontinuouslyandadjustscourseinreal

time.Insteadofrelyingonannualperformancereviews,itassessesanddeploys

talentdynamicallybasedonprojectneedsandindividual

performance

metrics.Instead

ofsticking

with

established

business

models,it

experiments

with

new

revenue

streamsautomatically,

scaling

what

works

anddiscontinuing

what

doesn’t.Instead

ofoperatingona

fixed

schedule,it’s‘a(chǎn)lwayson’andready

to

adapt.7

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5FIGURE

1By2030,

technology

willremove

some

of

themostpersistent

challenges

enterprises

face

todayAnd64%say

competitive

advantagecome

from

innovation

rather

than

resource

optimization.67%of

executives

expect

AI

toeliminate

the

resource

andskillsconstraintsthatcurrentlyholdtheirorganization

back.will8

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5“Inaworldthatisincreasinglydigital,theluxuryconsumerisgoingtoexpectmorehumanconnection—becausethatisgoingtobealuxury.”TinaEdmundsonPresident,Luxury,Marriott

InternationalExecutives

expect

to

shift

funding

accordingly.Between2025

and2030,

theypredictAI

investment

will

surge

approximately150%.1

While

a

large

portionof

AI

spend(47%)is

focusedonefficiency

today,executivesexpectalmosttwo-thirds(62%)

to

be

dedicated

to

product

and

service

and

business

modelinnovation

by2030.

This

may

reflect

the

fact

that,in

a

smarter

enterprise,efficiencyandinnovation

shouldbeoneand

the

same.In

this

vein,product

and

service

innovation

is

the

top

priority

for

organizationsbetween2026and2030,rising

from

thirdplaceinour2025CEOStudy.2Businessmodelinnovationandmarket

sharegrowthareloweron

thelistof

futurepriorities,buthaveinchedupascompared

with2025(seeFigure2).This

shows

that,in

thenear

term,leadersare

focusedonchange

withintheproduct

and

serviceportfolio.But

they’redelaying

themore

significantdisruption

thatbecoming

an

AI-first

enterprise

willrequire.Is

thatbecauseorganizations

lack

the

bandwidth

needed

to

transform

at

scale

today?Or

areexecutives

simplyunclear

about

what

the

futurebusinessmodel

shouldlooklike—so

they’rekicking

thecandown

theroad?Either

way,delaysarenotaluxury

that

enterprises

can

afford.Leaders

also

expect

a

few

of

today’s

top

priorities

to

be

less

important

in2030.Ecosystemsandcybersecurity,

forexample,bothdroppedinranking.That

doesn’t

mean

these

focal

areas

are

unimportant—in

fact,

they

will

beessential

tomake

themostofemerging

technologies.Rather,executivesexpect

them

tobecome

table

stakes.If

they’ve

alreadybeen

well-handled,they

won’t

need

to

be

top

priorities

in2030.“By2030,competitionwillbedilutedinthefaceofcollaborativeecosystemsthatdefineglobalstandards

andaccelerateinnovation.Ecosystemswillwin—not

isolatedcompanies.”SusanaMeseguerExecutiveManagingDirectorofDigitalizationandServices,Repsol92026-2030ProductandserviceinnovationProductivity

oref?ciency/pro?tabilitySpeedofexecutionConstituent/CustomerexperienceAI

and

technologymodernzationScalability

ofservice

deliveryForecastaccuracyMarketsharegrowthTalent

recruitingand

retentionBusinessmodelinnovationMarketingorsaleseffectivenessCybersecurityanddataprivacySupplychainperformanceEnvironmentalsustainabilityDiversityandinclusionEcosystemandpartnerships

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5FIGURE

2TopC-suitepriorities2025Forecast

accuracyProductivity

or

ef?ciency/pro?tabilityProductandserviceinnovationCybersecurityanddataprivacyConstituent/CustomerexperienceTalent

recruiting

and

retentionAI

and

technologymodernzationEnvironmentalsustainabilityEcosystemand

partnershipsSupplychain

performanceScalability

ofservice

deliveryMarketingorsales

effectivenessDiversityand

inclusionMarketsharegrowthBusinessmodel

innovation12345678910111213141516123456789101112131415Source

for

2025

priorities:

IBM

Institute

for

Business

Value

2025CEO

Study.10

|

Foreword|Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5“We’llneedmoreproblemsolverswhounderstandboththebusinessandthemodels—peoplewhocanmarrytechnicalcapabilitywithbusinessinsight.That’sthefutureofeverycompany,includingours.”UmangDharmikSVPandHead

of

ITMercedes-BenzResearchDevelopmentIndia(MBRDI)It’sdifficult

toimagine

therevolutionary

capabilities

AI

willdevelop

over

thenext

five

years.Buildinganorganization

thatcan

succeedin

the

futuremeanspreparing

for

continual

tech-driven

disruption—abandoning

the

comfort

ofincremental

change

and

embracing

constant

evolution

that

matches

the

paceofalgorithmicinsight.Everythingelseis

justplayingcatch-up.In

this

paper,drawn

from

our

proprietary

quantitative

research

as

well

asin-depth

qualitative

interviews

with

select

C-suite

executives,

we

highlightfive

predictions

for2030

that

leaders

can

act

on

today

to

bring

the

smarterenterprise

to

life.2.Today’s

productivitygains

will

fundtomorrow’sindustry

transformation.3.Thebest

AI

willbe

one-of-a-kind.Yourkind.4.AI

won’tdo

all

your

thinking

for

you.5.Quantum

willcause

thenextseismic

shift.Competitive

pressurewillmakebigbetsnon-negotiable.1.11

11Prediction

1Competitivepressure

willmake

big

betsnon-negotiable.

|

Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction512

|

Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5In2030,successwon’tbemeasuredbysteady

progresstoward

long-term

targets.It

will

be

defined

by

how

muchanenterprisedisruptsitsindustryquarterbyquarter.Thebiggestriskwon’tbemakingthewrongbets—but

makingbetsthataretoosmall.What

does

it

take

to

turn

incremental

progress

into

exponential

gains?

Itstarts

by

embracing

the

unknown.By2030,79%ofexecutives

say

AI

willcontribute

significantly

to

their

revenue,up

from

just

40%

who

say

AI

drivesrevenue

today.Butonly24%canclearlyidentify

what

theirmain

sourcesofrevenue

willbein2030(seeFigure3).FIGURE

3Executives

arebankingon

theunknownBy2030,79%of

executives

say

AI

will

contributesigni?cantlyto

their

revenue.Butonly24%clearly

see

whattheir

main

sources

of

revenuewillbe.<13

|

Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5“In2030,Ithinkwewillbebringingofferingsand

solutionstomarketthatwecan’tevenenvisiontodaybecausethetechnologyisn’tthereyet.I

wouldsay50%ofourrevenueswillcomefrom

newofferings.”MaureenPowerSweenyChiefRevenueOfficer,

RapidScaleThis

lack

of

visibility

isn’t

due

to

a

lack

of

imagination.It’s

a

symptom

of

the

AIparadox.

When

used

to

its

full

potential,

AI

promises

to

provide

differentiatedvalue.Whenusedasacrutch,it

fuelshomogenization.

Already,

two-thirdsofexecutivesareconcerned

that

AIiscreatingconformity,leadingmanyorganizations

tomake

the

samedecisions,basedon

the

samedata.Ourresearchindicates

that

winningin2030

willdependonacombinationofcreativity,confidence,and

speed:55%ofexecutives

say

competitiveadvantagein2030

willdependmoreon

speedofexecution

thanmakingperfectdecisions.

Theseleadersknow

they’llhave

tomakebiggerbetsfaster—with

less

complete

information

at

their

disposal.Unlike

today’s

calculated

risks,

tomorrow’s

bets

will

prioritize

enteringuncharted

markets,creating

entirely

new

revenue

streams,and

challengingtraditional

business

logic.

The

airline

industry

offers

a

nascent

case

in

point:

as

the

world’s

first

AI-native

airline

takes

flight,

traditional

organizationsmust

beginto

adapt

their

business

models

to

compete.3

If

consumers

seeone

company

offering

products

and

services

that

are

more

aligned

to

theirpreferences,

that

pressure

could

quickly

compound—pushing

companiesto

rethink

everything.“AIneutralizestheclassicadvantageoftheincumbent.Astartupcannowoperateatthesamescaleasalargeenterprise,butmoveatamuchfasterspeed.Thatmeanssmallercompaniescanreallydisruptthemarketsthey’regoingafter.”AaronLevieCEOandCo-founder,Box14

|

Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5Organizations

thathaveembraced

theunknownexpect

toacceleratemuchfasterthan

their

peers.Our

analysis

shows

that

organizations

leaning

intoAI-firstoperations

anticipate70%

greater

improvement

in

productivity,74%greaterreductionsinprocesscycle

timesand,67%greaterimprovementinproject

deliverytimes

than

their

peers

by2030.

They

are

more

confident

thatAI

can

eliminate

traditionalresource

and

skill

constraints,

theyprioritizeinnovative

growthoverresourceoptimization,and

theyplaceagreateremphasis

on

developing

new

revenue

from

products

and

services

that

theyarenotdelivering

today.Thisisasmuchofanoperationalchallengeas

a

strategic

one.

Tomoveat

speed,organizations

need

to

foster

a

culture

of

outcomes-focusedexperimentation:rapidly

deploying

minimum

viable

products(MVPs),iteratingand

trackingperformance,anddeciding

whichMVPs

to

scale

todeliver

themostbusiness

value.

Theyalsoneeda

stableecosystem,

withpartners

thatcan

support

the

agility

AI-first

organizationsrequire.

And

theyneed

AIcapabilities

andmodels

fine-tuned

with

their

organization’sproprietarydata,coupled

with

agents

that

can

access

the

most

up-to-date

information

as

dataisprocessedand

flowsacross

theorganizationinreal

time.Organizationsthat

get

it

right

aren’t

just

beating

competitors

to

market.They’re

operating

ondifferentprinciples.In

the

timeit

takes

slowerorganizations

to

complete

one

full

cycle

of

development,

testing,

and

delivery,theseleadershavecompletedmultipleiterations—learning,adapting,andimproving

with

each

round.

This

creates

a

compounding

effect

that

traditionalenterprises

can’t

match;

an

advantage

that

compounds

exponentially

witheachacceleratedcycle.“Themoreweusetechnologytogetclosertopeople,themorecompetitiveweare.”EstrellaBotasCOO,

Unicaja15

|

Foreword|

Summary|Prediction1|Prediction2|Prediction3|Prediction4|Prediction5Every

faster

delivery

generates

fresh

customer

feedback.Each

shortenedprocessrevealsoperationalinsights.

Andchange

willbecomeevenmoredramatic

as

AI

advances

over

the

next

five

years.

The

smarter

enterprisetransforms

this

velocity

into

wisdom,using

every

interaction

as

a

data

pointto

refine

its

understanding

of

what

works,

what

doesn’t,

and

what’s

next.It’s

always

on

and

continuously

adapting.In2030,it

won’tbeenough

to

simplybeagileorlean—concepts

thatassumeyou

know

what

you’re

optimizing

for.Instead,

success

will

come

from

buildingorganizationalintelligencewith

clear

accountability

structures

that

canrecognize

patterns,

anticipate

shifts,

and

cultivate

the

confidence

leadersneed

toplacebigger,

smarterbetsaheadofcompetition.

Thisalsoinvolvesasking

how

AI

will

rede