1、Association for Sense About ScienceNatural History MuseumM.S. Swaminathan, FRSUNESCO Chair in EcotechnologyPresident, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World AffairsM.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, ChennaiWhere the Green Revolution has left us and where we need to go now?London, 22 May 2003Pub

2、lic Good Plant Breeding : What are the international priorities?Famines and Public Good Plant BreedingThe Irish Potato Famine of 1840s triggered the search for new genes in tuber-bearing Solanum species.“This Conference, meeting in the midst of the greatest war ever waged, and in full confidence of

3、victory, has considered world problems of food and agriculture and declares its belief that the goal of freedom from want of food, suitable and adequate for the health and strength of all peoples, can be achieved”.Resolution of Conference convened by President Franklin D. RooseveltHot SpringsVirgini

4、a (18 May to 3 June 1943)Major Famines of the 20th CenturySource : Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines, 1981HaitiCant- be-savedEgyptCant-be-savedThe GambiaWalking WoundedTunisiaShould Receive FoodLibya Walking Wounded IndiaCant-be-savedPakistanShould Receive FoodFamine : Triage classification of countr

5、ies- Paul and William Paddock, 1967Variation in Australian Average Wheat Yield (Ten-Year Mean) from 1860 to 2000Fighting Soil HungerWater Conservation and Management : Key to Crop SecurityThe rice terraces of BaliGreen Revolution in EuropeoBegan with Liebigs discovery of mineral fertilizer in the 18

6、50soSoil health, water management and plant protection proved to be key factors in determining crop productivityoMendelian genetics helped to breed strains capable of responding well to soil fertility and irrigation water managementDaruma(Japanese semi-dwarf)XFultz(U.S. winter wheat, high yield)Fult

7、z-Daruma(semi-dwarf, high yield)Locals(adapted to U.S. Northwest)XXTurkey Red(U.S. winter, high yield)Norin 10(semi-dwarf, winter, high yield)Gaines(semi-dwarf, winter, U.S. adpted)XLocal StrainsNew Wheats(semi-dwarf, high yield, adaptable, rust-resistant, fast-maturing,spring)Origin of the semi-dwa

8、rf wheatsPower of Mendelian BreedingPublic good Plant Breeding and assured and remunerative marketing triggered rapid progressWheat Production India now occupies theSecond Position in the World1965: 10 Million t2000 : 80 Million toSome time between 1970 and 1985 the world will undergo vast famines h

9、undreds of millions of people are going to starve to death. That is, they will starve to death unless plague, thermonuclear war, or some other agent kills them first.oThe United States should announce that it will no longer ship food to countries such as India where dispassionate analysis indicates

10、that the unbalance between food and population is hopeless.Ehrlich 1968Synergy between Technology and Public PolicyScience and Agricultural Progress1968 The Beginning of Green Revolutiono Pedigree Selectiono Inter-varietal Hybridizationo Winter x Spring Wheat crosseso Mutation Breedingo Aneuploid an

11、d Genomic Breedingo Restructuring Plant Architecture : Semi-dwarf wheato Shuttle Breeding and Photo-insensitivityo Hybrid Wheato Apomixiso Functional Genomics and Molecular BreedingHundred Years of Wheat BreedingLand and Forest Saving AgricultureNon-lodging , greater absorption of sun light, better

12、root system, higher harvest index and photo-insensitivityNew Plant Type in Rice8000BC1900Landraces1930Purelineselection1950Crossbreds2010Biotech-nology1995Indica/Indicahybrids2005Indica/Tropicaljaponicahybrids196519902000NewplanttypeSemidwarfs(IR8) (IR72otential yield (t/ha)From Green t

13、o Gene Revolution in RicePublic SectorPublic-Private SectorGenetic Resources(building blocks)Biotechnologies(tools)Commercial Products(market value)$Sui generis Systems(Rights)Benefit-sharing(collective rights)(e.g. Farmers Rights and the Global Plan of Action)Intellectual Property Rights(individual

14、 rights) % (e.g. Plant Breeders Rights)FAO International Treaty Art, 9(also Art. 12 &13)CBD Art, 8 (j)WIPOWTO/TRIPS (Art. 27.3.b)UPOVAccess to Genetic Resources andBiotechnologies for Food and Agriculture“Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall. He will end by destroying the earth”

15、- Albert SchweitzerEnvironment and Development : Early WarningRachel Carson 1962 : Silent Spring“Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility and soil structure would lead ultimately to the springing up of deserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in

16、soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscie

17、ntific tapping of underground water would lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming. The rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread

18、 of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened prior to the Irish potato famine of 1845 and the Bengal rice famine of 1942. Therefore, the initiations of exploitative agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced i

19、nto traditional agriculture and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us into an era of agricultural disaster in the long run, rather than to an era of agricultural prosperity.”Scientific rationale for an Ever-green revolution- M S SwaminathanIn

20、dian Science Congress, Varanasi, January 1968What nations with small farms and resource poor farmers need is the enhancement of productivity in perpetuity, without associated ecological or social harm. The green revolution should become an ever-green revolution rooted in the principles of ecology, e

21、conomics and social and gender equity. - M S Swaminathan, 1990Concept of Ever-green RevolutionGreenRevolutionEver-greenRevolutionCommodity CenteredExperiment StationResearchIntegrated Natural Resources Management CenteredParticipatory ResearchParadigm Shift : Adding the Dimension ofEnvironmental sus

22、tainabilityGrowth Rates in the Production of Food Grain2.82.293.941.780123451970-711980-811990-912000-01YearPercentageFatigue of the Green RevolutionWhere do we need to go now?o In population rich and land hungry countries, there is no option except to produce more from less per capita arable land a

23、nd irrigation water.o The smaller the farm, the greater is the need for marketable surplus, to get cash incomeo There is need for anticipatory research to face future challenges like global warming and sea level riseo Obviously an integrated approach to Mendelian and molecular breeding will be essen

24、tial to make progressMangroves : Useful Sources of Genes for Salinity ToleranceAnticipatory ResearchcDNA libraries were constructed from the Mangrove species Avicennia marinaA number of genes with potential application to abiotic stress has been isolated and charactreisedFour isolated genes were use

25、d for developing transgenics in rice, Brassica and VignaTransgenic plants with salinity tolerance genes Avicennia marinaFacing the Challenge of Sea level RiseIntegrated Mendelian and Molecular BreedingTransgenic (T1) rice plants with genes from mangroves in the greenhouse (salt tolerance upto 150 mM

26、)“Organic agriculture includes all agricultural systems that promote the environmentally, socially and economically sound production of food and fibres. These systems take local soil fertility as a key to successful production.” International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) - 2002

27、Organic Agriculture and Evergreen RevolutionOrganicFarming1) Soil Health2) Water Quality3) Plant Health5) Animal Health Vermiculture Bio-fertilisers Stem nodulating green manure crops Bioremediation Genetic Resistance Biopesticides Vaccines High quality feeds and fodder6) Environment Biomonitoring t

28、hrough Bio-indicators Higher Carbon Sequestration4) Post-harvest Technology New strains with improved keeping, processing and transport qualitiesIFOAM : Genetic Engineering is excluded in organic agricultureBiotechnology and Organic Agriculture“We are committed to study, share and facilitate the res

29、ponsible use of biotechnology in addressing development needs”Civil Society Organisations Declaration“Genetically modified organisms represent a threat to family farmers, other food producers, the integrity of genetic resources and human and environmental health. They will affect particularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly alternative”World Food Summit Plus 5,