1、新冠疫情背景下綠色復蘇A J U S T G R EE N R E C O V E R Y F R O M C O V I D - 1 9 T 3 The Case for a Just Gr een Reco ver y he world is responding t o an unprecedented health, social, and economic emergency.A t the time of publication, o ver three million lives ha ve been lost due t o the cor ona virus pandem -

2、 ic.1 Societies ha ve been se verely disrupted-both fr om the health impacts and the pandem - ic-induced recession.The International Moary F und (IMF) estimates that global output declined about three times as much as in the 20_7 –0 8 global fi nancial crisis, in half the time.2 The W orld

3、 Bank estimates that Co vid-19 could push up t o 100 million people int o e_treme po ver ty.3 In response, governments ha ve rolled out emergency measures t o bolster health systems and create supportive conditions t o maintain livelihoods and jobs for those hit hardest.The IMF re - por ts that as o

4、f March 2021 , governments ar ound the world had intr oduced fi scal measures and liquidity suppor t t otaling more than $16 trillion.4 The majority of these fi scal responses ha ve been emergency measures and stabilization spending, as opposed t o reco very spending that has a longer-term impact.5

5、Howe ver , the Co vid-19 reco very dow offers a r are oppor tunity t o structur ally tr ansform economies and accelerate the green tr ansition.There is renewed openness t o large-scale pub - lic investment as governments seek t o rebuild their economies and boost long-term gr owth potential.A t the

6、same time, the Co vid-19 crisis has re vealed the depth of inequality within and among countries, suggesting the need for policies that can create new sources of gr owth while also adv ancing equity and justice.There is a risk that if the lessons fr om pre vious crises are not lied, hist ory will re

7、peat itself and reco very spending will neither accelerate decarbonization nor tackle inequality.Some estimates suggest that ar ound 16 per cent of global stimulus measures follog the 20_7 –0 8 fi nancial crisis suppor ted green initiatives.6 While there was a 1 .4 per cent decrease in glo

8、bal emissions that was A J U S T G R EE N R E C O V E R Y F R O M C O V I D - 1 9 4 obser ved in 2021 as a result of the economic downturn, the global stimulus contributed t o a 5.1 per cent rebound in global emissions in 2021 -more than offsetting the original decrease.7 Then-re - cord levels of pu

9、blic spending also failed t o aver t or remedy persistent structur al inequalities.Reco very spending patterns o ver the past year r aise similar concerns, as most reco very pack - ages are failing t o sufficiently emphasize decarbonization.The United Nations Envir onment Pr ogr am (UNEP) estimates

10、that of the spending announced acr oss the fifty largest countries in 2021, 13 per cent of o ver all spending was directed t oward long-term reco very type mea - sures, of which only 18 per cent was directed t oward green reco very initiatives, mostly in a small group of wealthy countries.8 The stak

11、es are high, and the oppor tunities are significant for delivering a green reco very fr om Co vid-19 that addresses underlying injustices and builds resilience amongst vulnerable groups for future tr ansitions and shocks.There is a mounting body of e vidence that suggests that investments in clean,

12、sustainable infr astructure can be one of the most effective ways t o boost shor t-term employment and sustain long-term socio-economic activities while creating quality jobs.9 Conversely, directing reco very funds t o high-carbon businesses and fossil fuels risks locking in harmful emissions and wi

13、ll ine vitably make such investments more e_pensive and disruptive t o re verse and replace.This sentiment is encapsulated in government mit - ments t o “Green Reco veries” and “Building Back Better .” A shor t-term focus on policies that suppor t health care spending and targeted suppor t t o affec

14、ted households and firms is critical.F ollog the immediate response effor t, it is im - per ative that focus shifts t o rebuilding in ways that deliver greater justice and social equity alongside accelerated decarbonization.Some of the options a v ailable t o governments include investing in green i

15、nfr astructure t o help mitigate climate change, strengthening social assis - tance and social insur ance t o arrest rising inequality, intr oducing initiatives t o boost produc - tive capacity, and resolving debt o verhangs.10 This paper focuses on whether green reco very measures are also suppor t

16、ing a just tr ansition, or at least the elements of a just tr ansition.We pr o vide an analytical fr amework t o e_amine green stimulus measures fr om a just tr ansition perspective.We ly the fr amework t o inter - ventions in different countries and offer initial insights on how reco very measures

17、can acceler - ate decarbonization while enhancing equity.“ F ollo g th e imm edia te r e sp onse e ff or t, it is imp er a - tiv e tha t f ocus shifts t o r ebuilding in wa y s tha t deliv er gr e a t er jus tic e an d social equity along side ac c eler a t ed decarb oniza tion .” 5 Elements of a Ju

18、st Gr een Reco ver y E_amining green reco very inter ventions thr ough the lens of a just tr ansition can help assess whether systemic inequalities are being addressed, and which reco very policies can best miti - gate losses and distribute gains fairly.The Just T r ansition Initiative has de velope

19、d a fr amework t o help analyze the key dimensions of just tr ansitions and suppor t more tr ansformative and inclusive roaches t o addressing climate change.11 The fr amework emphasizes the impor tance of distributional impacts of climate action or the fair allocation of the benefits and harms asso

20、ciated with tr ansitions, as well as social inclusion , or the recognition of marginalized groups thr ough their par ticipation and influence in decisionmaking processes.A deep and ple_ tr ansformation is required t o achie ve both distributive justice and social inclusion goals in responding t o th

21、e urgent challenges of climate change.This may require fundamental changes t o e_isting social and economic systems that are potentially inpati - ble with sustainable de velopment and social equity.As such, the fr amework also emphasizes a cr oss-cutting element of tr ansformative intent, or the amb

22、ition t o address structur al inequal - ity and reshape the social and economic status t o achie ve a just tr ansition.A F ram e w ork f or Jus t T r ansitions Empo w erment Int ention: T r ans f ormation Social In clusion P ar ticipa tion Int ention: R e f orm F ocused Int ention: R e f orm Dis tri

23、butional Impacts E_pansiv e Int ention: T r ans f ormation A J U S T G R EE N R E C O V E R Y F R O M C O V I D - 1 9 II: Narr o w T r ansition In clusiv e but f ocused r oach Social I nclusion: recognizes, includes , and empowers a diverse r ange of stakeholders thr oughout tr ansition processes.Di

24、stribu tional Impacts: considers a narr ow r ange of impacts for specific sectors and stakeholders .I ntention: seeks tr ansformation thr ough inclusive and empowering processes.I: Sy s t ems Change In clusiv e pr oce ss an d br oad impact Social I nclusion: recognizes, includes, and empowers a dive

25、rse r ange of stakeholders thr oughout tr ansition processes.Distribu tional Impacts: considers a broad r ange of i mpact s acr oss sectors and stakeholders.I ntention: seeks tr ansformation thr ough the o verhaul of systems inpatible with sustainable de velopment and social equity.III: In cr em ent

26、al R e f orm Le ss inclusiv e an d f ocused r oach Social I nclusion: recognizes and includes select stakeholders in as pects of the tr ansition process .Distribu tional Impacts: considers a narr ow r ange of impacts for specific sectors and stakeholders .I ntention: seeks reform via changes within

27、e_isting social and economic systems.IV: T op -Do wn T r ansition Le ss inclusiv e pr oce ss but br oad impact Social I nclusion: recognizes and includes select stakeholders in as pects of the tr ansition process .Distribu tional Impacts: considers a broad r ange of i mpact s acr oss sectors and stakeholders.I ntention: seeks tr ansformation thr ough consider ation of a broad r ange of distributional impacts.A J U S T G R EE N R E C O V E R Y F R O M C O V I D - 1 9 6 The two dimensions in the fr amework, namely distributi