TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\uOakCity’sShop Olympic OakCity’sShop月原始原ThefollowingeditorialappearedintheElmCityp"TheconstructionlastyearofashopmallindowntownOakCitywasamistake.Sincethemallhasopened,anumberoflocalbusinesseshaveclosed,andthedowntownareasuffersfromanacuteparkingshortage,andarrestsforcrimeandvagrancyhaveincreasedinthenearbyOakCityPark.ElmCityshouldpayattentiontotheexampleoftheOakCitymallanddenytheapplicationtobuildashopmallinElmCity."考思因果關系-錯誤因果：不一定是由于shopmallopen導致其他商店關閉當?shù)厣倘思娂娺x擇；(2)和流浪者增多可能是其他因素造成的，比如房價太高，大學生畢業(yè)找不到工作，只好選擇或者流浪。錯誤類比：ElmCityOakCity不可完全等同，兩座城市的經(jīng)濟狀況，基礎設施和生活水忽略了帶來的好處，例如createnew ernmentrevenue,置疑：以上提到的幾項數(shù)據(jù)全部來源不明，可能不夠中立客觀考范InthiseditorialtheauthorrebukesOakCityforallowingtheconstructionofanewdowntownshopmall.Citinganumberofproblemsthathaveoccurredsincethebuildingofth,theauthorconcludesthattheresidentsofOakCityhavenotbenefitedfromthandthatOakCityexercisedpoorjudgmentinallowingthtobebuilt.Amongtheproblemscitedbytheauthoraretheclosureoflocalbusinesses,lackofparkinginthedowntownarea,andincreasedtrashandlitterinacityparknearthemall.Moreover,theauthorarguesthatprofitsderivedfromsalesarenotbenefitingOakCitybecausetheownerofthemalllivesinanothercity.Theauthor'sargumentisproblematicinseveralrespects.Intheplace,theauthorassumesthatadditionofthenewmallisthecauseofthevariousproblemscited.Theonlyevidenceofferedtosupportthiisthattheconstructionofthemalloccurredbeforetheseproblemsmanifestedthemselves.However,thisevidenceisinsufficienttoestablishtheclaiminquestion.Achronologicalrelationshipisonlyoneoftheindicatorsofacausalrelationshipbetweentwoevents.Inthesecondplace,theauthorhasfocusedonlyonnegativeeffectsthemalthashadonthecity.Amoredetailedysisofthesituationmightrevealthatthepositivebenefitsforthecityfaroutweightheproblemsonwhichtheauthorfocuses.Forexample,newjobsmighthavebeencreatedfortheresidentsofOakCity,andtaxrevenuesmighthavebeenincreasedforthecity.LackingamorecomprehensiveysisoftheimpactofthonOakCity,itispresumptuousonthepartoftheauthortoconcludethatOakCity'sdecisiontoallowthemalltobebuiltwasInconclusion,theauthor'sargumentisunconvincing.Tostrengthentheargumenttheauthorwouldhavetodemonstratethattheconstructionofthemallcausedthevariousproblemsmentioned.Theauthorwouldalsohavetoshowthatthenegativeeffectsoftheprojectoutweighedthepositiveeffects.Olympic月原始原ThefollowingappearedaspartofanannualreporttostockholdersbyOlympicFoods,aprocessoroffrozenfoods.“Overtime,thecostsofprocessinggodownbecauseasanizationsl rhowtodothingsbetter,they emoreefficient.Incolorfilmprocessing,forexample,thecostofa3-by-5-inchprintfellfrom50centsforfive-dayservicein1970to20centsforone-dayservicein1984.Thesameprincipleappliestotheprocessingoffood.AndsinceOlympicFoodswillsooncelebrateitstwenty-fifthbirthday,wecanexpectthatourlongexperiencewillenableustominimizecostsandthusize考思錯誤類比：Thefoodindustryisnotogoustothecolorfilmindustry.食品行業(yè)與彩色膠因果關系：Otherfactorsthatmaycontributetothecostdeclineoftheprintingcostshouldbeconsideredandruledout.無根據(jù)假設：Theconclusionoftheargumentisbasedonagratuitousassumptionthatthecompanycanminimizecostandizeprofitbecausethecompanyhasbeenconductedfor25years.(1)(2)costprofit就會增加，只有在銷考范Citingfactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustrythatindicateadownwardtrendinthecostsoffilmprocessinera24-yearperiod,theauthorarguesthatOlympicFoodswilllikewisebeabletominimizecostsandthusizeprofitsinthefuture.Insupportofthisconclusiontheauthorcitesteralprinciplethat“asanizationslearnhowtodothingsbetter,theyemoreefficient.”Thisprinciple,coupledwiththefactthatOlympicFoodshashad25yearsofexperienceinthefoodprocessingindustryleadstotheauthor’srosyprediction.argumentisunconvincingbecauseitsuffersfromtwocritical,theauthor’sforecastofminimalcostsandumprofitsrestsonthegratuitousassumptionthatOlympicFoods’“l(fā)ongexperience”hastaughtithowtodothingsbetter.Thereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase.Nordoestheauthorciteanyevidencetosupportthisassumption.Justaslikely,OlympicFoodshaslearnednothingfromits25yearsinthefood-processingbusiness.Lackingthisassumption,theexpectationofincreasedefficiencyisentirelyunfounded.Second,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromthecolor-filmprocessingindustryareapplicabletothefoodprocessingindustry.Differencesbetweenthetwoindustriesclearlyoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingtheogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,problemsofspoilage,contamination,andtimelytransportationallaffectthefoodindustrybutarevirtuallyabsentinthefilm-processingindustry.Problemssuchasthesemightpresentinsurmountableobstaclesthatpreventloweringfood-processingcostsinthefuture.Asitstandstheauthor’sargumentisnotcompelling.TostrengthentheconclusionthatOlympicFoodswillenjoyminimalcostsand umprofitsinthefuture,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatthecompanyhaslearnedhowtodothingsbetterasaresultofits25yearsofexperience.Supportingexamplesdrawnfromindustriesmoresimilartothefood-processingindustrywouldfurthersubstantiatetheauthor’sview.月原assistantmarkingredirectorwritetothecompany'smarketdirectordeparmetn:basedonoursamllerfranchisesinfor,peopleprefertogotolocalownedgrocery,sincethelocalgroceyalreadyhavethecutomerloyalty.samethingwillhappentothesupermarketchainwhichwewillopenatthisareaeventhoughwecanprovidelowerprice.forsolvingthisproblem,theassistantdirectorsuggestthat:shiftinghalfnationaladvisebudgettothesponsringlocalcommunicatoinwhichfocusafter-schoolcommuncatoin.然后問你