17OctoberQ3Preview:ExpectSolidResultsandGuidance;ValuationRemainsAttractiveYTD,thepackagingcompanieshavelaggedthemarket,down14%vs.theS&P’s5%gain.SincetheendofQ2,however,thepackaging17OctoberQ3Preview:ExpectSolidResultsandGuidance;ValuationRemainsAttractiveYTD,thepackagingcompanieshavelaggedthemarket,down14%vs.theS&P’s5%gain.SincetheendofQ2,however,thepackagingstockshavestartedtoperformalittlebetter,up1%vs.theS&P's3%increase.Wethinkthisbouncebackforthepackagersisduetovaluationsthatbecameincreasinglyattractive(andatlowsnotseeninrecentyears),somestabilizationofthedollar,andmorecertaintyaroundtheimpactfromhigherfreightandotherrawmaterialcosts.Lookingoutinto3Q18,weexpectthepackagerstopostsolidEPSgrowthofaround26%.Volumesshouldbeupabout1%y/yonaverage,withmostoftheEPSgainsfromacquisitions,sharerepurchasesandlowertaxrates.OurtoppickscontinuetobeBERY,BLLandCCK.TylerJ.LangtonFreightratesstartingtoease.FreightratesintheU.S.startedtomovemeaningfullyhigherearlierintheyearandhithighsattheendofJune.Theseincreaseshaveweighedontheearningsofthepackagingcompaniesas,inmostcases,theircontractsonlyallowthemtopassthroughthesecostsonanannualbasis.However,freightrateshavestartedtodecline,andaredownroughly20%sincetheendofJune.Withthesedecreases(assumingtheyhold)andthecompanies’abilitytopassonthesecostsstartingin2019,wethinkthepackagersshouldbeabletolargelyoffsetthesecostsnextyear.ARD–resultsdowncloseto10%y/yonfreightcostsandGlassN.A.Q3EPSandEBITDAshouldbedowncloseto10%y/y.MetalAmericas’EBITDAshouldbedownmodestlyy/ymostlyonhigherfreightcostswithvolumesupinthelowsingle-digitrange.MetalEuropeshouldalsobedowny/ymainlyduetothenon-repeatoflowerpensionexpensefrom3Q17.GlassEuropeshouldbedownonmodestvolumedeclines.Finally,GlassNorthAmericashouldcontinuetoseemeaningfuly/ydeclinesonamid-single-digitvolumedropandhigherfreightcosts.BERY–resultsshouldbeupjustslightlyascontributionsfromClopaymostlyoffsetbyhighercosts.F4QEPSandoperatingEBITDAshouldbeabout1-2%highery/y.EBITDAinConsumershouldbedowninthelowsingle-digitrange,withcontinuedpressuresfromfreightandhigherrawmaterialcostsoffsettinglowsingle-digitvolumegrowth.EngineeredMaterials’EBITDAshouldberoughlyunchangedy/ywithvolumesaboutflatandaneutralprice/costspread.HH&SEBITDAshouldincreaseabout10%y/yoncontributionsfromtheClopayacquisition,withpartialoffsetsfrommodestvolumedeclinesandcontinuedprice/costpressures.EquityRatingsandPrice($ Price ArdaghARDPriceNBallCorporationBerryGlobalCrownHoldingsSealedAirBLLUSCCKUSMYEUSOIUSSEEUSSLGNSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof16OctSeepage48foranalystcertificationandimportantJ.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.每日每日免費(fèi)獲取報(bào)（增值服務(wù)關(guān)注回復(fù)：研究加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”微信群17October17OctoberTylerJ.LangtonBLL–solidgrowthdrivenbyRexamsynergies,footprintoptimizations,easiercompsandbuybacks.Q3EPSshouldbeuproughly14%y/y,withEBITDAupabout9%.TheincreaseshouldbedrivenbysynergiesfromtheRexamacquisitionandfootprintoptimizations,astrongquarterinNorth&CentralAmerica(ashurricaneimpactsfromayearagoarenotrepeatedandfromeasiervolumecomps),continuedvolumegainsinEurope,improvedearningsinAerospaceasprogramsramp,andalowersharecountfrombuybackswithpartialoffsetsfromlowerearningsinSouthAmericaandthesaleofBLL’sU.S.steelfoodandaerosolassets.CCK–growthdrivenbySignode.Q3EPSshouldbeuproughly21%y/y,withEBITupasimilaramount.TheSignodeacquisitionshouldbethelargestdriverofthisgrowth.AmericasBeverageresultsshouldbedown,despitehealthyvolumegains,oncontinuedpressuresfromhigherfreightcosts.WealsoexpectEBITinEuropeanBeveragetobedowny/yoncontinuedvolumeweaknessintheMiddleEast,whichcarriesahighermixthanCCK'sbusinessincontinentalEurope.MYE–EBITDAroughlyflatonweakermixandslowingvolumegrowthinMaterialHandlingandcontinuedvolumedeclinesinDistribution.Q3EBITDAshouldberoughlyflaty/y,whileEPSshouldbeuproughly39%y/y,benefittingfromalowertaxrateandinterestexpense.MaterialHandlingEBITDAshouldbeaboutflaty/y.Volumesshouldbeupslightlyandthesegmentshouldcontinuetobenefitfromitsfootprintconsolidationactivities,butthesetailwindsshouldmostlybeoffsetbyaweakermix.EBITDAinDistributionshouldbeaboutflat,withcostsavingsoffsettinglowtomid-single-digitvolumedeclines.OI–earningsdownonFxwithflatshipments.Q3EPSshouldbedowninthelowsingle-digitrange.Shipmentsshouldbeaboutflat.TotalSystemsCostinitiativesshouldcontinuetocontribute,butpressuresfromFx(especiallyinLatinAmerica)shouldoffsetthesegainsandbea$0.03-0.04incrementalheadwindinthequarter(whencomparedtotheexpectedimpactontheQ2call).Bysegment,Europeshouldseehigheroperatingprofitsandmargins.Americas'operatingprofitshoulddecliney/ymainlyduetoFxinducedcostinflation.TheassetimprovementactivityinAPACiscomplete,butOIexpectsmarginsinthe5-6%range(insteadofthe6-7%expectedontheQ2call)withsomepressuresfromFx.SEE–earningsuponmodestvolumegains,positiveprice/costspreadandlowerinterestexpenseandtaxrate.Q3EPSshouldincreaseabout40%y/y,withEBITDAup6%.EBITDAshouldbehigherinbothsegmentsonlowsingle-digitvolumegains,apositivemix&price/costspread,andtheFagerdalaandAFPacquisitions.Earningsshouldalsobenefitfromalowersharecount,interestexpenseandtaxrate.SLGN-earningsuponmodestvolumegainsandlowertaxrate.Q3EPSshouldbeupabout17%y/y,withEBITincreasing3%.ResultsinClosuresshouldmovehigheronmodestvolumegainsandsomeremainingy/ysynergiesfromtheacquisition.EarningsinMetalContainersshouldbeupslightlyonamodestvolumegain,whilePlastics’resultsshouldincreaseonlow-single-digitvolumegainsandsomefurthermarginimprovementfromcostreductioninitiatives.Finally,earningsshouldalsobenefitfromalowertaxrateofaround24-25%comparedtoyear-agolevelsofroughly33%.2TylerJ.Langton17October3Q18PackagingTylerJ.Langton17October3Q18PackagingYTD,thepackagingcompanieshavelaggedthemarket,down14%vs.theS&P’s5%gain.SincetheendofQ2,however,thepackagingstockshavestartedtoperformalittlebetter,up1%vs.theS&P's3%increase.Wethinkthisbouncebackforthepackagersisduetovaluationsthatbecameincreasinglyattractive(andatlowsnotseeninrecentyears),somestabilizationofthedollar,andmorecertaintyaroundtheimpactfromhigherfreightandotherrawmaterialcosts.Lookingoutinto3Q18,weexpectthepackagerstopostsolidEPSgrowthofaround26%.Volumesshouldbeupabout1%y/yonaverage,withmostoftheEPSgainsfromacquisitions,sharerepurchasesandlowertaxrates.OurtoppickscontinuetobeBERY,BLLandCCK.Figure1:EarningsExpectationsandStockPriceSource:Companyreports,BloombergandJ.P.Morganestimates.Note:3Q18EPSestimatesforBERYrepresentsitsFQ18EPS.ARD3Q17and2017EPShavebeenconvertedtoFreightcostseasing,shouldbemostlyrecoveredinAsshowninFigure2below,FreightratesintheU.S.startedtomovemeaningfullyhigherearlierintheyearandhithighsattheendofJune.Theseincreaseshaveweighedontheearningsofthepackagingcompaniesas,inmostcases,theircontractsonlyallowthemtopassthroughthesecostsonanannualbasis.However,freightrateshavestartedtodecline,andaredownroughly20%sincetheendofJune.Withthesedecreases(assumingtheyhold)andthecompanies’abilitytopassonthesecostsstartingin2019,wethinkthepackagersshouldbeabletolargelyoffsetthesecostsnextyear.InFigure3below,weestimatetheimpactthathigherfreightandothercostsshouldhaveontheearningsforthepackagingcompaniesinourcoverageuniversethisyear.3Pack S&P 3Q18EEPS3Q18EEPS3Q18EEPS 2018EEPS 2018EPS StockPrice? StockPrice? Y/YEPS? Y/YEPS? 2018YTD SinceEnd2Q18TylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure2:FreightTylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure2:FreightDryVanTLSportY/YIncreaseinFreight1Q18=2Q18=3Q18=4Q18=-1Q19=-2Q19=-3Q19=-4Q19=Note:4Q18-4Q19y/yestimatesarebasedoncurrentfreightratesholdingconstantthrough4Q19.Source:Figure3:ImpactofHigherFreightY/Ychange$in551475182244Source:CompanyreportsandJ.P.MorganARD–ElevatedfreightcostsimpactedARD’s1H18resultsby$35mm(about2/3inGlassNorthAmericaand1/3inMetalAmericas),andthecompanyexpectsthesepressurestocontinuefortheremainderoftheyear.BERY–Theunderrecoveryofcosts(freightandrawmaterials)negativelyimpactedBERY’sF3QEBITDAbyabout$20mm(afterseeingsimilaramountsinF2QandF1Q),andBERYexpectstobenegativelyimpactedbyabout$80mmforthefullyear,implyingasimilaramountinF4Q.Thiscostpressureiscomingmainlyfromhigherfreightandotherinputcostswitharelativelysmallimpactfromresins(whichBERYgenerallypassesthroughonacouplemonthlag).BLL–Freightwasa$7mmheadwindinQ2with$2-3mmself-inducedfromthestart-upofGoodyear.Weestimatehigherfreightcostshadaslightlylowerimpactin1Q18,whileBLLexpectstoseesimilary/yincreasesinfreightofabout$4-5mmin3Qand4Q.CCK–Higherfreightcostsshouldbearoughly$30mmheadwindforCCKthisyear.Thesecostswereroughlya$10mmhitin1H18,leavinga$20mmheadwindfor4 FYTylerJ.LangtonTylerJ.Langton17OctoberMYE-Thecompanyhasseenhigherfreightcosts,buthasbeenmuchlessimpactedthantheotherpackagingcompaniesinouruniverseasfreightisamuchsmallerOI–HigherfreightanddieselcostsareexpectedtoweighonOI's2018EEPSbyabout$0.05-0.06,orroughly$9mm.However,thenetimpactofhigherfreightratesinthe2Hshouldbeaboutone-thirdof1Hlevels.SEE–SEEhasnotbrokenouttheimpactoffreightcoststhisyear.Afterseeinganegativemixandprice/costspreadin1Q18,SEEpostedapositivespreadin2Q18,andweexpectthistocontinuein3Q18and4Q18.SLGN–Higherfreightcostswerea$0.02-0.03headwindin2Q18orabout$4mm.They/yincreaseimpactshouldbeaboutthesamein3Q18butshouldeasein4Q18.Currency–Eurook,pressurefromsomeotherThepackagingcompany’searningswerealsopressuredbythestrengtheningofthedollaratthebeginningoftheyear.Morerecently,though,theU.S.dollarhasweakenedvs.theeuroand3Q18averageexchangeratesareroughlyequalto3Q17rates.Othercurrencies,however,suchastheBrazilianreal,Australiadollar,MexicanpesoandArgentinepesohaveweakenedvs.thedollar,whichcouldstillcausesomeincrementalpressuresforcompanieslikeOI,SEEandBERY.Figure4:EURExchangeSource:5TylerJ.Langton17OctoberTylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure5:BRLExchangeFigure6:MXNExchangeSource:Source:Figure7:AUDExchangeFigure8:ASRExchangeSource:Source:ValuationAttractiveonanAbsoluteandRelativeAsshowninFigure9below,thepackaginggrouphastradedatanaverageforwardEV/EBITDAmultipleofroughly9.3xandata1.0xdiscounttotheS&P500overthepastthreeyears.However,thepackaginggroupisnowtradingatroughlyan8.8xEV/EBITDAmultiplewhileitsdiscounttothemarkethaswidenedto1.7x.OnaforwardFCFyieldbasis,afterhavingfallentobelow6.5%inthesummerof2017,thepackagersarenowtradingataforwardFCFyieldof8.3%,asshowninFigure106TylerJ.LangtonTylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure9:Packagers’averageEV/EBITDAmultiplehasdroppedandthediscounttomarkethasForwardSource:Bloomberg,companyreportsandJ.P.MorganFigure10:Packagers’FCFyieldhascontinuedtoFCFSource:Bloomberg,companyreportsandJ.P.Morgan7TylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure11:PackagingValuation$in Source:Bloomberg,TylerJ.Langton17OctoberFigure11:PackagingValuation$in Source:Bloomberg,companyreportsandJ.P.Morgan3Q18CompanyEarningsJPM3Q18EEPS=Consensus2Q18EEPS=$0.55JPM2018EEPS=$1.71Consensus2018EEPS=CurrentGuidance:2018EBITDAof$1.5bn,3Q18EEBITDAof$410mm,FCF~$500mmandEPSof$1.70-3Q18EarningsRelease:BeforemarketopenonOctober25.3Q18EarningsCall:October25at10:00amET.Dial-in:866-928-7517.ID:52524482.Guidanceandoutlook:WearemaintainingourestimatesforARD,andexpectthecompanytomaintainits2018EEPS,EBITDAandFCFguidancewithQ3earnings.Weseethebiggestrisktotheseestimatesfromthecompany'sGlassNorthAmericasegment,wherevolumeshavebeenweakerthanexpectedandcostshigherthanexpectedsofarthisyear.3Q18results:OnaU.S.dollarbasisforboth3Q17and3Q18,3Q18EEPSandEBITDAshouldbedowncloseto10%y/y.MetalAmericas’EBITDAshouldbedownmodestlyy/ymostlyonhigherfreightcostswithvolumesupinthelowsingle-digitrange.MetalEuropeshouldalsobedowny/ymainlyduetothenon-repeatoflowerpensionexpensefrom3Q17.GlassEuropeshouldbedownonmodestvolumedeclines.Finally,GlassNorthAmericashouldcontinuetoseemeaningfuly/ydeclinesonamid-single-digitvolumedropandhigherfreightcosts.8 Ticker EBITDAMargin NetDebt/EBITDA SealedAir $1.78$1.71$2.04$2.26$3.11$3.34$4.04$5.25$0.51$0.75$2.65$2.75$1.82$2.50$1.64$2.0821.4%-4.2%17.2%11.1%25.0%7.6%2.9%29.9%4.8%48.3%14.6%3.7%-30.4%37.3%17.8%26.9%17.5%16.7%16.0%16.9%18.7%17.8%15.8%15.2%11.0%11.5%19.6%19.7%18.7%18.7%13.9%14.1% 9.7%9.4%8.9%10.0%13.9%13.5%14.9%13.7%8.3%13.4%10.8%10.7%13.2%19.4%9.8%10.1% 9.2%20.1%13.4%16.4%16.3%17.0% 3.0x11.2%12.5% PriceDec- %ΔMktCompanyTickerRating YTD18($ 16.0319.00-24.0% 46.1051.0021.8% 43.9969.00-25.0% 47.8968.00-14.9% 16.3121.00- 18.5925.00-16.1%Sealed 35.4050.00-28.2% 26.8732.00- 22.7x20.4x14.2x13.2x 32.2x21.7x 19.4x14.1x16.4x12.9x 13.2x11.6x 10.7x 10.3x 11.9%10.3%5.6%5.2%10.2%10.7%6.4%8.6%7.7%7.0%7.3%7.9%3.6%7.2%7.5%10.0%4.0% 4.0% 5.4% 3.5% 6.0% 2.9% 2.5% 4.1% -13.9%16.6x13.5x 7.5%8.4%4.0% TylerJ.LangtonTylerJ.Langton17OctoberVolumes:WeexpectQ3y/yvolumestobedownaround1%.VolumesinMetalEuropeandAmericasshouldbeupinthelowsingle-digitrangemainlyoncontinuedstrengthinbeveragecanvolumes.GlassEuropevolumesshouldbedownslightlywhileGlassNorthAmericavolumesshouldbedowninthemid-single-digitrangeduetocontinuedweaknessinthemegabeermarket.Price/cost:In2018,ARDshouldseefurthersynergiesfromitsbeveragecandealofabout$20mm.However,onits2Q18call,ARDcommentedthatelevatedfreightcostshadimpacted1H18resultsby$35mm(about2/3inGlassNorthAmericaand1/3inMetalAmericas)andthatitexpectsthesepressurestocontinuefortheremainderoftheyear.Whatwewillbelookingfor:Onthecall,wewillbelisteningforanythoughtsonhowthegrowthandcostreductioninitiativesinthecompany’sGlassNorthAmericabusinessareprogressingandifthereareanychangestotheexpectedimpactofhigherfreightcostsintheU.S.Wewillalsobelookingforanyupdatedthoughtsonthecompany’soutlookforpricingintheNorthAmericanbeveragecanmarket.OnitsQ2call,ARDstatedthatitbelievespriceincreasescouldstarttohappenforbeveragecansintheU.S.ARDcommentedthatitsU.S.beveragecanbusinesswasfullysoldoutthisyear,andhasactuallybeenbuyingcansexternallytomeetdemand.9TylerJ.Langton17OctoberBallJPM3Q18EEPS=TylerJ.Langton17OctoberBallJPM3Q18EEPS=Consensus3Q18EEPS=$0.59JPM2018EEPS=$2.26Consensus2018EEPS=CurrentGuidance:2018FCFof~$800mm,withcapexofover$700mmandaworkingcapitalbenefitofaround$100mm.marketopenonNovember1.at11:00amET.Dial-in:888-222-3042or303-223-4382.Guidanceandoutlook:Wearemaintainingour3Q18EEPSof$0.60and2018EEPSof$2.26.WeexpectBLLtohititsFCFtargetin2018ofaround$800mmalongwithits2019EBITDAandFCFtargetsofgreaterthan$2.0bnand$1.0bn,3Q18results:Q3EPSshouldbeuproughly14%y/y,withEBITDAupabout9%.TheincreaseshouldbedrivenbysynergiesfromtheRexamacquisitionandfootprintoptimizations,astrongquarterinNorth&CentralAmerica(ashurricaneimpactsfromayearagoarenotrepeatedandfromeasiervolumecomps),continuedvolumegainsinEurope,improvedearningsinAerospaceasprogramsramp,andalowersharecountfromsharebuybackswithpartialoffsetsfromlowerearningsinSouthAmericaandthesaleofBLL’sU.S.steelfoodandaerosolassets.Volumes:Wearelookingforvolumestobeuparound1%inthequarteronaconsolidatedbasis.NorthandCentralAmericabeveragecanvolumesshouldbeaboutflatasBLLseeseasiercomps,particularlyinthemegabeerspace.EuropeanbeveragecanvolumesshouldbeupinthelowsingledigitswhileSouthAmericavolumescouldbedowninthehighsingledigitsgiventoughcompsandthediscontinuationofendsalestoARDinBrazil.Price/cost:InF3Q18,price/costshouldbeameaningfulbenefitforBLL.InNorth&CentralAmerica,highercostsofcloseto$30mmfromthehurricanesin3Q17shouldnotrepeat.Europeshouldcontinuetoseey/ybenefitsfromtheRecklinghausenclosure,whichlapsinAugustof2018.Additionally,in2018,BLLshouldseeanincrementalbenefitofroughly$75mmfromsourcingsavings($100mmintotal)whichshouldlapafter3Q18.ThemainoffsetstothesepositivesshouldbepressuresinBrazilfromlowervolumesandanewcompetitorenteringthemarketandhigherfreightratesintheU.S.ofabout$4-5mm.Whatwewillbelookingfor:Onthecall,wewillbelisteningforanyupdatedthoughtsonsynergiesfromtheRexamacquisitionandsavingsfromitsfootprintoptimizationeffortsaswellasifthecompanyremainsconfidentthatitcanhitits2019EBITDAandFCFtargets.Onthecapitalallocationfront,BLLexpectstoreturnover$800mmtoshareholdersin2018,includingcloseto$700mmofrepurchaseand$140mmindividends,andwewillbelookingforanyupdatestotheseestimatesaswellasanythoughtsaroundinvestmentsoracquisitions.BerryJPMF3Q18EEPS=ConsensusF3Q18EEPS=$0.88JPMF2018EEPS=$3.34ConsensusF2018EEPS=marketopenonNovember15.15at10:00amET.Dial-in:800-305-1078or703-639-1173.TylerJ.LangtonTylerJ.Langton17OctoberCurrentGuidance:F2018EFCFof$630mm,withcashflowfromoperationsof987mmandcapexof$320mm.Guidanceandoutlook:ForF2018,westillexpectBERYtoslightlyexceeditsFCFguidanceof$630mm.Lookingoutinto2019,weexpectanotherhealthyyearforearningsandFCFgrowth,withourF2019EEPSat$3.91,EBITDAat$1.476bn,andFCFat$675mm.F2019EEBITDAshouldbenefitby$40mmfromtherecoveryofhighercostsnotpassedthroughinF2018,$50mmfromtheClopayacquisitionandsynergies,volumegrowthofabout1%(whichcouldaddabout$15mmofEBITDA),withapartialoffsetfromhigherSG&Acosts.F3Q18results:BERY’sF4QEPSandoperatingEBITDAshouldbeabout1-2%highery/y.EBITDAinConsumershouldbedowninthelowsingle-digitrange,withcontinuedpressuresfromfreightandhigherrawmaterialcostsoffsettinglowsingle-digitvolumegrowth(asthesegmentbenefitsfromthenewbusinessthatstartedlastquarterandcontributedroughlyhalfofthesegment’s4%y/yvolumesgrowth).EngineeredMaterials’EBITDAshouldberoughlyunchangedy/ywithvolumesaboutflat(astherationalizationoflessprofitableproductsfollowingtheAEPacquisitionlaps)andaneutralprice/costspread.HH&SEBITDAshouldincreaseabout10%y/yfromcontributionsfromtheClopayacquisition,withpartialoffsetsfrommodestvolumedeclinesandcontinuedprice/costpressures.Volumes:ForF4Qonay/ybasis,weexpectBerry’soverallvolumestobeaboutflat,withConsumerup1%,HH&S(excludingtheClopayacquisition)downinthe1-2%range,andEMflat.Price/cost:TheunderrecoveryofcostsnegativelyimpactedBERY’sF3QEBITDAbyabout$20mm(afterseeingsimilaramountsinF2QandF1Q),andBERYexpectstobenegativelyimpactedbyabout$80mmforthefullyear,implyingasimilaramountinF4Q.Thiscostpressureiscomingfromresins(whichBERYgenerallypassesthroughonacouplemonthlag)butmainlyfromfreightandotherinputcostswhichgenerallycan'tbepassedthroughoutsideofannualcontracts.Whatwewillbelookingfor:Onthecall,wewillbelookingforanyupdatesonthecompany'sabilitytorecoverthehighercoststhatareweighingonF2018EBITDAbyabout$80mm.Onthevolumefront,wewillbelookingtoseeifConsumervolumescancontinuetogrowinthelowsingle-digitrangeandifgrowthinHH&SandEMcanreboundafterweakergrowththisyear.Finally,wewillbelisteningforanycommentaryaroundcapitalallocation,withBERYhavingapproveda$500mmsharerepurchaseauthorizationlastquarter.TylerJ.Langton17OctoberCrownJPM3Q18EEPS=ConsensusTylerJ.Langton17OctoberCrownJPM3Q18EEPS=Consensus3Q18EEPS=$1.65JPM2018EEPS=$5.25Consensus2018EEPS=CurrentGuidance:3Q18EEPSof$1.60-1.70,2018EEPSof$5.15-5.30,and2018Eand2019EFCFof$625mmand$775mm.marketcloseonOctober17.at9:00amET.Dial-in:888-324-8108or630-395-0194.ID:Guidanceandoutlook:Wearemaintainingour2018EEPSof$5.25andFCF$625mm,andour3Q18EEPSsitsatthehighendofthecompany’sguidance.WeexpectCCKtomaintainitsguidancewithearningsandtoreaffirmits2019FCF3Q18results:CCK’sQ3EPSshouldbeuproughly21%y/y,withEBITupasimilaramount.TheSignodeacquisitionshouldbethelargestdriverofthisgrowth.ResultsinAmericasBeverageshouldbedown,despitehealthyvolumegains,oncontinuedpressuresfromhigherfreightcosts.WealsoexpectEBITinEuropeanBeveragetobedowny/yoncontinuedvolumeweaknessintheMiddleEast,whichcarriesahighermixthanCCK'sbusinessincontinentalEurope.Volumes:WeareforecastingCCK’svolumestobeupinthe2-3%rangeinthequarter,drivenonthebeveragecansidebycorevolumegrowthandthecompany’snumerousexpansionprojects.CorevolumegrowthinbeveragecansshouldcomefromtheU.S.,BrazilandMexicointheAmericasandfromSoutheastAsiainAsiaPacific.VolumesinEuropeshouldbedowninthelowsingle-digitrange,withlowsingle-digitgainsincontinentalEuropebeingoffsetbycontinuedweaknessintheMiddleEast.Price/cost:Higherfreightcostsshouldbearoughly$30mmheadwindforCCKthisyear.Thesecostswereroughlya$10mmhitin1H18,leavinga$20mmheadwindforWhatwewillbelookingfor:Onthecall,wewillbelookingtoseehowtheintegrationofSignodeisprogressingandifCCKstillexpectsthebusinesstogenerate$390-400mmofEBITDA(onafullyearbasis)in2018.WewillalsobelisteningforanyupdatesontheEuropeanCommission’sinvestigationintoanti-competitivepracticesinvolvingCCK'smetalfoodandclosuresbusinesses.JPM3Q18EEPS=Consensus3Q18EEPS=$0.15JPM2018EEPS=$0.75Consensus2018EEPS=CurrentGuidance:3Q18EEPSof$0.14-0.16,3Q18Erevenuesof$135mm,and2018Erevenuegrowthofflattoupinthelowsingledigitsy/y.marketopenonNovember6.at10:00am.Dialin:TBA.Guidanceandoutlook:Werecentlyloweredourestimatesandpricetarget(clickheretoviewnote)forMYEtoreflectitsweakerthanexpectedQ3guidance,withresultsbeingimpactedbyweakerthanexpectedsalesinDistributionandintheRVmarketforitsMaterialHandlingsegment.TylerJ.Langton17October3Q18results:Q3EBITDAshouldberoughlyflaty/y,whileEPSshouldbeuproughly39%y/y,benefittingfromalowertaxrateandinterestexpense.MaterialHandlingEBITDAshouldbeaboutflaty/y.VolumesshouldbeupslightlyandthesegmentTylerJ.Langton17October3Q18results:Q3EBITDAshouldberoughlyflaty/y,whileEPSshouldbeuproughly39%y/y,benefittingfromalowertaxrateandinterestexpense.MaterialHandlingEBITDAshouldbeaboutflaty/y.Volumesshouldbeupslightlyandthesegmentshouldcontinuetoseebenefitsfromsavingsfromitsfootprintconsolidationactivities,butthesebenefitsshouldmostlybeoffsetbyaweakermix.EBITDAinDistributionshouldbeaboutflat,withcostsavingsoffsettingalowtomid-single-digitvolumedeclines.Volumes:WeexpectQ3y/yvolumestobeaboutflaty/y.MaterialHandlingvolumesshouldbeupslightlywhileDistributionvolumesshouldremainweakandbedowncloseto4%y/y.Price/cost:In2018,MYEshouldbenefitfromroughly$8mmofsavingsfromitsfootprintconsolidationactivities.Whatwewillbelookingfor:Onthecall,wewillbelookingtoseehowvolumesaretrackinginMaterialHandling(especiallyintheRVmarketwhichwasweakerthanexpectedinQ3)andifMYEisstillontracktogeneratetheroughly$8mmofsavingsfromitsfootprintconsolidationactivities.InthereleaseforitsQ3guidance,MYEstatedthatitisreviewingseveralmoreaggressiveactionsforitsDistributionsegment,andwewillbelookingformoredetailsonwhatactionsarebeingconsidered.Finally,followingthecompany’sequityraisethissummertohelpfundacquisitions,wewillbelisteningforanyupdatesonMYE’sacquisitionefforts.Owens-IllinoisJPM3Q18EEPS=Consensus3Q18EEPS=$0.75JPM2018EEPS=$2.75Consensus2018EEPS=CurrentGuidance:3Q18EEPSof~$0.75,2018EEPSatthelowendof2.75-2.85,and2018EadjustedFCF(ex.asbestospaymentsof$100mm)of$400mm(withpotentialdownsidepressurefromFx),withcashflowfromoperationsof$800mmandcapexof$500mm.marketcloseonOctober30.at8:00amET.Dial-in:888-733-1701or706-634-4943.Guidanceandoutlook:Atarecentconferenceinmid-September,OImaintainedits3Q18EEPSof~$0.75,2018EEPStowardsthelowerendof$2.75.-2.85andFCFofabout$400mm.GivenrisksfromFx,our3Q18EEPSisapennybelowconsensus,our2018EEPSisatthebottomendofguidance,andour2018EFCFisjustslightlybelow$400mm.WewouldexpectthecompanytoreiteratethisguidanceonitsQ3call,andreinforcingthat2018EEPSwillbeattheverylowendoftherange.3Q18results:Q3EPSshouldbedowninthelowsingle-digitrange.Shipmentsshouldbeaboutflat.TotalSystemsCostinitiativesshouldcontinuetocontribute,butpressuresfromFx(especiallyinLatinAmerica)shouldoffsetthesegainsandbea$0.03-0.04incrementalheadwindinthequarter(whencomparedtotheexpectedimpactontheQ2call).Bysegment,Europeshouldseehigheroperatingprofitsandmargins.Americas'operatingprofitshoulddecliney/ymainlyduetoFxinducedcostinflation.TheassetimprovementactivityinAPACiscomplete,butOIexpectsmarginsinthe5-6%range(insteadofthe6-7%expectedontheQ2call)withsomepressuresfromFx.TylerJ.Langton17OctoberVolumes:OIexpectsitsvolumestoTylerJ.Langton17OctoberVolumes:OIexpectsitsvolumestobeflaty/yinQ3.Augustwasmodestlyweakerthanexpected,butthecompanyexpectstogetmostofthisbackinSeptember.Byregion,Europesawaslowerreturnafterthesummerholidays.Americas'volumesshouldbehighery/ybutsli