29%19%10%0%-10%-19%2024-102025-022025-06數(shù)據(jù)來源：聚源《規(guī)模站上新臺階，存款倉位創(chuàng)歷史新高—理財?shù)?025Q3季報解讀》《非銀存款波動加劇，大小行投債思《關注“資金屬性”增強過程中的銀 銀行請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明1/31l2025H1零售不良率及不良生成率指標雙高，但風險應仍處可控區(qū)間但當前撥備計提對利潤表的影響，或弱于此前2018年對公風險暴露時l風險新規(guī)過渡期末臨近，撥備對利潤沖擊或小于市場預期風險過渡期將于2025年底結(jié)束，市場主要擔憂兩方面1）已減值貸款需計入（2）新資本管理辦法與風險新規(guī)同步，要求銀行逐步將非貸資產(chǎn)撥備曾延長兩年，故不排除部分銀行尋求延長期限可能。l業(yè)務特征及經(jīng)營目標，推動銀行信貸去抵押化率。該切換過中金融科技賦能風控水平較強的頭部城、農(nóng)商行具有較大優(yōu)勢。l投資建議（1）部分國有銀行客群優(yōu)勢賦予其較高的安全邊際，零售風險壓力可控l風險提示：宏觀經(jīng)濟下行、房價下降超預期、海外經(jīng)濟不確定性外溢。 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明2/311、2025年中期業(yè)績后銀行風險視角的三大關注點 42、零售不良絕對水平抬升，不良生成率亦處高位 52.1、逾期與不良指標偏離，判斷零售風險仍高位釋放 52.2、不良生成分化，部分股份行不良生成率下降，零售新生仍處高位 72.3、中小行零售不良率抬升提速，風險壓降仍依賴處置 93、風險新規(guī)過渡期末臨近，撥備對利潤沖擊或小于市場預期 3.1、國股行與中小行撥備指標趨勢分化 3.2、減值貸款歸入不良后，撥備對利潤沖擊或低于市場預期 3.3、零售貸款撥備計提壓力亦可控 3.4、第三階段撥貸比提升，撥備指標真實性強化 3.5、股份行金融投資撥備計提或仍不充分，但影響或可控 4、銀行信貸去抵押化原因：信貸業(yè)務特征及經(jīng)營目標選擇 214.1、上市銀行抵押類貸款占比逐年下降 214.2、股份行信用、抵押貸款不良率分化，中小行抵押類不良率更高 224.3、業(yè)務特征及經(jīng)營目標雙因素導致銀行信貸去抵押化 234.4、去抵押補信用的第二視角：消費類信貸不良轉(zhuǎn)讓業(yè)務興起 264.5、案例：常熟銀行個人經(jīng)營貸去抵押化策略 275、投資建議 286、風險提示 29圖1：上市銀行不良貸款率穩(wěn)中有降 5圖2：國有行、農(nóng)商行逾期率因零售風險而整體上升 5圖3：中報部分上市銀行披露不良生成率邊際下降 7圖4：郵儲銀行零售不良生成率仍處高位 7圖5：2021年起樣本銀行零售貸款不良率上升幅度明顯，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量壓力明顯大于對公貸款 圖6：各類零售貸款不良率變化趨勢，按揭處于低位，經(jīng)營貸抬升較快 圖7：2025H1上市銀行撥貸比略持平 圖8：中報國股行撥備覆蓋率略有提升 圖9：上市銀行第一階段撥貸比趨勢下降，第三階段撥貸比仍高于70%，撥備指標更具真實性 圖10：上市銀行抵押類貸款占比呈下降趨勢 21圖11：信貸去抵押補信用的趨勢，或源于當前風險指標壓力更大，銀行選擇降低違約概率，承擔較高違約損失率 24圖12：招商銀行各類零售貸款違約損失率，住房抵押貸款顯著更低 24圖13：銀登中心不良轉(zhuǎn)讓業(yè)務以個貸為主（單位：億元） 26圖14：個貸不良轉(zhuǎn)讓消費類貸款占主導，對公不良轉(zhuǎn)讓以流動資金貸款為主，均缺乏抵押物（單位：億元） 26圖15：常熟銀行抵押類不良高于信用（個人經(jīng)營貸） 27圖16：常熟銀行抵押類貸款占比持續(xù)壓降（個人經(jīng)營貸） 27表1：不良指標雖平穩(wěn)，但國有行、農(nóng)商行分別面臨逾期及關注指標上升壓力 6表2：測算國股行不良生成率上升，其余銀行邊際下降，但并非代表風險出現(xiàn)拐點 8表3：中報上市銀行零售貸款不良率整體上升，中小行不良率抬升幅度大于國股行（單位：%，變化為bp） 表4：中報上市銀行撥備覆蓋率邊際上升，國有行貸款減值損失同比多計提 請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明3/31表5：2025中報數(shù)據(jù)股份行、城商行已減值貸款與不良仍有偏離，但對利潤表沖擊或低于市場預期 表6：零售及對公業(yè)務的本質(zhì)差異，造成零售及對公撥備覆蓋率不對稱性，中小行對公計提比例顯著更高 表7：股份行、城商行第三階段撥貸比低于國有行、農(nóng)商行 表8：股份行金融投資撥備覆蓋率（投資撥備/已減值投資）整體小于100%（%） 20表9：信用貸款不良率，部分中小行信用類不良率較低 22表10：區(qū)域中小行抵押貸款不良率整體高于信用類貸款 23表11：住房抵押貸款風險敞口/客戶數(shù)集中在低違約概率區(qū)間，且違約貸款對應戶均敞口并非最高 25表12：推薦及受益標的盈利預測與估值 29 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明4/31一、零售不良率及不良生成率指標雙高，后續(xù)銀行盈利是否承壓？中報行不良率低位延續(xù)改善趨勢，但或因信貸規(guī)模擴張及不良處置力度等因素，使其難不良：當前對公不良生成率低位運行，但零售不良生成水平仍居高位，如2025H1盡管當前零售不良拐點尚未呈現(xiàn)，但風險或處可控區(qū)間1）按揭不良率雖整體上升但絕對水平仍較低，疊加LPR調(diào)降、存量按揭利率下調(diào)、利率定價機制完善等政策支持，居民違約概率有望同步下降2）個人經(jīng)營貸不良率上行明顯，部分銀行中報上升幅度超30bp，或源于經(jīng)營貸的抵押信貸特征，通常銀行處時不愿以低價轉(zhuǎn)讓，更傾向于抵押品變現(xiàn)，故偏長的處置周期造成經(jīng)營貸不良堆積于表內(nèi)，但其對風險的反映亦更加真實3）消費類信貸受金額小、客群分散的特點更易產(chǎn)生逾期，其不良絕對水平在各類零售貸款中最高，其風險改善依賴于居民收入預期的修復。部分銀行消費類信貸不良率邊際改善，主要源于個貸不良資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)讓業(yè)務的發(fā)展，為銀行處置消費類不良貸款提供渠道。此外我們認為零售風險上升時期，銀行撥備計提壓力亦可控，主要源于對公、零售業(yè)務的本質(zhì)差異，造成二者撥備計提水平不對稱，大多數(shù)銀行前者撥備覆蓋率高、后者低，故當前撥備計提對利潤表的影響，或弱于此前2018年對公二、風險新規(guī)過渡期即將結(jié)束，政策端是否造成銀行撥備計提壓力？《于2025年底結(jié)束，市場主要擔憂點在于1）已減值貸款需計入不良，當行減值貸款與不良貸款口徑存差異，認定標準統(tǒng)一后不良率將抬升，若保持當前撥備水平則需多計提2）新資本管理辦法與風險新規(guī)同步，要求銀行逐步將非貸資或侵蝕利潤。但我們認為即使新規(guī)過渡完成，政策端影響也不會帶來過大沖擊。一方面部分銀行財務報表減值資產(chǎn)口徑，或與監(jiān)管認定標準存在差異，另一方面借鑒資管新規(guī)實施后過渡期曾延長兩年，不排除部分壓力較大的銀行尋求延長期限階段豁免的可能?；谏鲜鲆蛩匚覀冋J為銀行年內(nèi)因監(jiān)管規(guī)則而產(chǎn)生的撥備補計提壓力34.6%，且呈逐年下降趨勢，銀行信貸去抵押化特征明顯。觀察到區(qū)域性中小行抵形成抵押類貸款不良率高于信用類貸款的現(xiàn)中小行信貸去抵押化一方面受其業(yè)務特征影響，如抵押品價值縮水過程中銀行質(zhì)信用客戶，因此金融科技對賦能風控水平較強的頭部城、 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明5/31大不良資產(chǎn)處置的影響，可能難以反映風險實期率為1.44%，較2024年提高3bp，國有行、農(nóng)商行分別上行7bp和1bp；此外中戶貸款和墊款，如果部分分期付款已逾期，則該貸款的全部金額均被分類為逾期，售業(yè)務風險承壓現(xiàn)象相對應，即當前零售不當前上市銀行零售業(yè)務所面臨的壓力?！獓小煞莩巧獭r(nóng)商全部——國有——股份城商——農(nóng)商全部數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind、開源證券研究所數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明6/310.91%0.92%00014.20%3.90%3.87%4.62%6.19%3.38%2.41%-0.36%-3.01%-2.18%-1.89%-3.40%-3.78%-3.74%2.02%0.95%2629445374.94%74.44%59.89%66.34%82.99%67.79%80.99%72.04%63.97%69.18%86.06%78.82%6.04%-2.40%4.07%2.84%3.06%0.94%0.93%-0.56%-2.29%375.67%78.36%2.69%-0.82%-2.36%2.35%2.15%2.06%86.21%83.67%-2.54%02.20%-1.15%84.92%86.13%02.05%-1.05%-3.10%274.48%78.90%4.42%20.66%0.01%-0.65%2.70%2.73%22.09%2.19%99.67%9.45%04.14%-0.74%-4.88%2.02%88.93%89.80%0.87%0.85%-0.48%-1.34%63.14%66.51%3.37%5.18%-3.03%-8.21%2.58%2.52%70.65%77.42%6.77%-1.58%-3.39%2.41%2.50%2.12%82.81%94.47%04.91%2.19%-2.72%84.20%77.66%-6.54%00.99%-0.18%2.06%2.04%84.14%96.22%0.86%0.84%3.90%4.66%0.75%71.39%77.44%6.05%0.83%0.84%17.47%3.86%-3.61%090.81%94.81%4.00%0.76%0.76%0-8.74%0.95%0.89%77.69%79.73%2.04%0.76%0.76%06.58%-5.56%0.55%0.51%0.55%0.61%555.61%66.76%-6.84%2.63%3.31%2.22%4389.26%95.19%5.93%0.66%0.66%03.12%-5.61%0.43%0.44%10.70%0.77%678.35%83.36%5.01%4.22%2.57%-1.66%2.64%2.05%87.32%87.67%0.34%47.01%-5.24%2.97%3.12%2.28%2.83%82.95%98.50%4.87%-3.14%0.56%0.54%89.09%82.18%-6.91%4.09%-2.95%-7.04%0.96%0.98%656.74%71.18%3.29%0.20%-3.10%2.02%2.03%05.04%5.19%91.22%57.90%0.83%0.83%09.27%-0.33%-9.60%0.88%0.75%0.99%81.73%86.40%4.67%5.72%7.92%2.20%2.43%2.36%2.78%4281.07%99.15%0.86%0.83%-17.99%3.04%2.74%94.50%82.02%-12.48%0.97%0.97%02.56%0.21%-2.35%92.06%90.83%-1.23%03.88%2.30%-1.59%2876.73%84.85%-1.72%-3.22%5.02%4.96%2.89%2.87%79.97%79.50%-0.47%00.84%0.82%-0.02%582.27%83.10%0.83%0.78%0.78%06.07%-4.83%0.55%0.53%0.89%0.87%72.70%83.41%0.90%0.90%02.73%2.53%-0.20%8773.86%74.73%0.86%0.86%0.86%03.64%-2.32%62.34%85.49%23.15%0.97%0.98%14.94%-0.77%-5.71%2575.29%77.21%0.76%0.76%0-2.75%3.91%82074.77%75.66%0.90%0.94%0.94%05.26%-3.74%87.27%85.24%-2.03%04.18%-2.74%769.98%73.30%3.33%2.12%-0.65%-2.77%81.98%85.50%3.53%5.58%2.27%-3.31%80.72%87.20%6.48%02.68%0.78%-1.90%180.77%84.05%3.27%03.79%-2.76%373.49%77.00%3.51%請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明7/31零售不良生成仍居高位，風險拐點未現(xiàn)。測算不良生成率時，用不良貸款的凈國有行不良生成率邊際上行，其余類型銀行不良生成水平邊際略降；同時中報部分銀行披露不良生成水平亦有下降，以招行、平安為代表的股份行不良生成率降幅顯著（招行-7bp、平安-16bp但并非代品來看，按揭不良生成相對可控，但信用卡和經(jīng)營貸絕對水平較高，且上行幅度顯著，消費貸款邊際改善。結(jié)合上市銀行零售不良數(shù)據(jù)看，中小銀行零售不良率抬升幅度更大，說明部分區(qū)域內(nèi)零售客群還款能力及意愿均下降；此外由于部分銀行在年內(nèi)加大清收力度，降低了核銷規(guī)模，受清收因素影響其實際不良生成水平理應更數(shù)據(jù)來源：各銀行財報、開源證券研究所（注：平安銀行披露不0.61%0.61%3.06%3.06%2.55%0.34%1.53%1.53%個人 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明8/31測算趨勢測算不良生成率（%）測算趨勢2021202020242021H12024H12025H12022H120222023H120232021202020242021H12024H12025H1工商銀行1.040.630.540.730.550.520.450.460.43 0.51建設銀行1.020.620.580.570.600.460.570.550.55 0.58農(nóng)業(yè)銀行1.040.570.59-1.630.550.550.470.520.44 0.60中國銀行0.720.650.610.580.540.660.540.470.50 0.62郵儲銀行0.340.300.350.530.560.430.530.550.65 0.79交通銀行1.370.920.800.820.730.500.520.490.53 0.49招商銀行1.000.620.640.860.830.830.850.810.88 0.78浦發(fā)銀行1.691.601.751.141.321.061.151.111.160.99興業(yè)銀行1.420.560.801.291.191.261.351.181.15 1.27\-中信銀行1.911.201.301.161.141.161.161.261.14 1.11民生銀行2.371.291.481.341.260.951.071.011.18 1.09光大銀行2.061.801.791.581.551.351.521.471.28 1.18平安銀行2.401.161.802.242.242.232.472.222.37 2.21華夏銀行1.801.371.211.051.131.291.261.151.26 1.41浙商銀行1.171.291.080.921.201.180.951.821.66 1.52北京銀行1.150.681.020.880.750.670.790.981.001.00上海銀行1.510.610.880.740.971.021.150.711.03 1.46江蘇銀行0.980.670.800.850.880.961.101.411.51 1.10、"南京銀行1.170.840.821.441.020.790.971.311.25 1.17寧波銀行0.790.500.711.111.000.870.961.281.27 1.05杭州銀行0.300.180.170.170.260.280.450.620.80 0.66長沙銀行1.431.371.421.051.271.081.311.151.28 1.44成都銀行0.52-0.010.070.020.060.160.180.310.27 0.18重慶銀行1.052.501.921.301.820.060.560.700.85 0.72貴陽銀行2.120.501.401.521.110.791.310.690.79 1.41青島銀行1.531.131.270.720.830.370.570.540.52 0.58齊魯銀行0.980.690.951.261.010.850.810.760.63 0.31鄭州銀行2.891.391.711.422.071.471.600.131.170.98蘇州銀行0.710.000.23-0.200.050.240.320.470.60 0.72西安銀行0.790.831.271.721.460.660.831.351.23 0.77廈門銀行0.380.340.400.510.530.660.510.770.80 0.85滬農(nóng)商行0.57-1.480.300.350.320.460.560.740.73 0.51渝農(nóng)商行2.571.201.730.681.290.740.720.840.91 0.78--青農(nóng)商行1.831.182.032.602.221.682.053.012.12 1.69紫金銀行1.210.450.570.020.230.310.380.490.65 0.75無錫銀行0.59-0.080.090.240.360.250.350.590.88 0.83蘇農(nóng)銀行1.230.380.420.380.550.400.670.970.86 1.23江陰銀行2.710.220.330.500.430.991.401.051.34 1.30\--…瑞豐銀行0.860.910.660.740.560.620.480.600.59 0.53常熟銀行0.850.320.360.460.590.760.921.261.47 1.32張家港行1.920.250.440.871.011.271.501.041.36 1.12國有0.950.620.580.190.570.530.510.500.50 0.58股份1.751.161.291.271.281.211.281.251.26 1.19城商1.140.710.900.890.900.750.900.951.060.99農(nóng)商1.480.160.910.700.840.720.831.031.03 0.89全部1.180.760.790.520.780.720.730.720.73 0.76請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明9/31呈陡峭化特征，反映零售風險近年加速上行的特征。最低，反映了國有行零售客戶風險較低的相對優(yōu)勢；第二、中報城、農(nóng)商行零售不良上升幅度高于國股行，反映當下零售風險呈區(qū)域化特征，即中小行本地化經(jīng)營，客戶區(qū)域集中度較高，無法像國股行全國經(jīng)營分散區(qū)域風險；第三、部分股份行、），力度的加大，另一方面部分銀行重塑其零售體系，前期對高風險客戶的壓降成效在如今體現(xiàn)，該類銀行零售風險雖顯修復跡象，但可持續(xù)性仍待觀察。按揭風險上升但仍處可控區(qū)間。按揭屬于商業(yè)銀行優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)，具有收益率高，風險低的特點。中報上市銀行按揭不良整體上行，部分銀行上升幅度超20于按揭抵押品充足，同時利率調(diào)降亦大幅緩解居民端還款壓力，降低了房貸客戶違約概率，故當前按揭不良率絕對水平在各類零售貸款中仍最低，其風險仍處可控區(qū)理性看待經(jīng)營貸不良率上升。中報上市銀行個人經(jīng)營貸不良整體呈上升趨勢，部分銀行上升幅度超30bp，但并非代表經(jīng)營貸風險失控。我們認營貸不良傾向于留存于表內(nèi)，而非表外處置，故造成經(jīng)營貸不良積累推升不良率。一方面由于經(jīng)營貸通常具有抵押品，故當貸款違約時銀行后續(xù)可持續(xù)對抵押物進行處置，避免當前以較低價格轉(zhuǎn)讓造成損失；另一方面以國有行為例，其零售客戶信用下沉相對較淺，這部分客戶盡管當期違約，但未來收回的可能性仍存，故國有行缺乏將這部分不良貸款以較低價格轉(zhuǎn)讓賣出的動力。因此盡管當前經(jīng)營貸不良率上客群分散的特點，因此易產(chǎn)生逾期，信用卡該特征更加明顯，故其不良率于各類零售貸款中最高。中報國有行信用卡風險邊際上升，股份行走勢分化，此外國股行消費類貸款不良率絕對水平差異呈收斂趨勢，這反映了全國性銀行消費貸客戶或呈同質(zhì)化的特征，即國股行消費貸基礎客群風險差異相對有限。我們認為信用卡不良上升體現(xiàn)了居民還款能力及意愿均有所下行，若未來居民收入端修復緩慢，則國股行信用卡資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量預計將持續(xù)承壓。同時由于消費類貸款缺乏抵押品，其小而分散的特點亦使得銀行自行清收時難度較大，成本效益比較低。伴隨個貸不良打包轉(zhuǎn)讓業(yè)務的興盛發(fā)展，當前消費類不良的壓降仍依賴于轉(zhuǎn)讓出表。 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明10/31國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部國有行股份行全部國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部國有行股份行全部數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind、開源證券研究所（1、樣本銀行為披露相關零售不良數(shù) 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明11/31銀行經(jīng)營貸銀行2024變化2024變化2024按揭消費貸信用卡2025H變化20242025H變化20242025H變化2024零售2025H變化工商銀行建設銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行郵儲銀行交通銀行2.202.111.3690.730.630.730.610.640.58 2.39 3.503.75252.222.3552072.342.970.980.97 9920 招商銀行浦發(fā)銀行興業(yè)銀行光大銀行平安銀行華夏銀行浙商銀行0.790.800.000.950.860.0076020.960.96(0)0.470.28(19)2.282.202.040.95 2.30202.452.293.643.282.512.73223.283.682.562.30(26)0.96 2.19 2.2746 上海銀行杭州銀行長沙銀行成都銀行重慶銀行貴陽銀行青島銀行齊魯銀行鄭州銀行廈門銀行2.042.970.930.975.702.253.182.123.301.280.981400.450.63170.630.7180.410.69282326911.982.500.990.770.782.712.862.022.00 3.044.191142.552.16(39) 25202.206.236.232.653.50 3.1933 2.3836 2.3131 1.8014 渝農(nóng)銀行青農(nóng)商行瑞豐銀行0.952.460.380.26(12)0.860.83(3)0.94 2.0443 4.14 (134) 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明12/31238.53%，環(huán)比上升0.46pct；撥貸比為2.93%，環(huán)比略持轉(zhuǎn)升；第二、國股行撥備覆蓋率環(huán)比均上升（不到1pct其中國有行主要源于貸險壓力，另一方面大行撥備計提同比大多由負轉(zhuǎn)正，主要受建行、郵儲兩家影響，——國有——股份城商——農(nóng)商——全部 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明13/31工商銀行建設銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行郵儲銀行交通銀行215.70%236.81%297.81%197.97%266.13%200.41%217.71%239.40%295.00%197.39%260.35%209.56%2.01%2.59%-2.81%-0.58%-5.78%9.15%2.87%3.14%3.81%2.47%2.41%2.59%2.89%3.18%3.77%2.44%2.39%2.68%24-4-3-29-4.89%-0.02%2.60%-7.69%53.27%-13.47%2.41%22.85%-3.03%-5.08%34.62%-0.43%7.30%22.87%-5.63%2.61%-18.64%13.04%-14.60%-17.79%-6.61%13.90%11.65%-9.53%8.13%33.74%-1.23%-10.67%46.55%-4.30%22.74%51.53%5.37%-24.56%34.89%5.23%0.45%0.48%0.55%0.58%0.35%0.60%0.70%0.87%0.76%0.58%0.50%0.68%25392108招商銀行410.03%410.93%0.90%3.84%3.83%-1-10.02%-8.55%1.48%-6.49%-8.23%-1.73%0.65%0.67%2浦發(fā)銀行186.99%193.97%6.98%2.49%2.54%55.28%-1.09%-6.37%-0.28%11.18%11.47%1.07%0.97%-10興業(yè)銀行233.42%228.54%-4.88%2.52%2.46%-6-11.39%-12.19%-0.80%-23.08%10.84%33.93%0.92%0.97%5207.11%207.53%0.42%2.40%2.40%0-14.41%-14.03%0.39%5.74%-15.04%-20.78%0.94%0.88%-6144.27%145.06%0.79%2.11%2.14%342.68%27.71%-14.97%-2.03%29.40%31.44%0.88%1.05%光大銀行174.44%172.47%-1.97%2.18%2.15%-3-15.58%-21.60%-6.02%-16.25%-19.54%-3.28%0.98%0.77%-21平安銀行236.53%238.48%1.95%2.50%2.51%1-20.92%-15.99%4.93%-15.77%0.50%16.28%1.56%1.41%-15華夏銀行156.85%156.67%-0.18%2.53%2.51%-2-18.09%-10.82%7.27%1.23%-3.95%-5.18%1.10%1.04%-7浙商銀行171.21%169.78%-1.43%2.36%2.31%-5-20.36%-10.90%9.46%78.35%-24.45%-102.80%1.45%1.16%-30北京銀行198.08%195.74%-2.34%2.57%2.54%-3-4.50%-6.01%-1.51%36.31%-4.80%-41.11%0.89%0.73%-16上海銀行271.24%243.64%-27.60%3.20%2.87%-3318.94%9.78%-9.17%11.08%30.60%19.52%0.84%0.79%-5江蘇銀行343.51%331.02%-12.49%2.88%2.77%-1128.23%48.18%19.95%1.08%22.56%21.48%1.06%0.93%-13南京銀行323.69%311.65%-12.04%2.68%2.60%-813.77%12.00%-1.77%27.29%9.70%-17.59%0.91%0.89%-2寧波銀行370.54%374.16%3.62%2.81%2.84%326.47%30.58%4.11%7.60%28.08%20.49%0.85%1.09%24杭州銀行530.07%520.89%-9.18%4.04%3.95%-9-56.89%-43.93%12.96%55.36%-27.56%-82.92%0.97%0.68%-29長沙銀行309.82%309.71%-0.11%3.65%3.62%-316.38%2.39%-13.99%2.94%11.39%8.45%1.52%1.60%7成都銀行456.00%452.65%-3.35%3.01%2.98%-3-3.51%5.79%9.30%9.38%-34.50%-43.88%0.44%0.37%-6重慶銀行247.59%248.27%0.68%3.00%2.91%-96.55%17.85%11.31%16.09%-15.81%-31.90%0.86%0.68%-18貴陽銀行236.54%238.64%2.10%3.93%4.05%-43.74%-25.48%18.26%-23.99%-10.72%13.26%0.96%1.12%青島銀行251.49%252.80%1.31%2.84%2.84%017.47%16.36%-1.11%16.23%19.04%2.80%0.74%0.91%齊魯銀行324.06%343.24%19.18%3.78%3.74%-4-10.13%-2.79%7.34%-20.37%-25.37%-4.99%0.92%0.79%-13鄭州銀行191.16%179.20%-11.96%3.42%3.16%-260.72%10.86%10.14%-12.80%39.49%52.29%1.37%1.06%-31蘇州銀行447.20%437.91%-9.29%3.72%3.63%-9-0.48%14.38%14.87%9.79%-23.64%-33.43%0.54%0.34%-20西安銀行190.07%205.70%15.63%3.06%3.28%2220.70%103.03%82.33%86.02%91.93%5.91%1.43%1.81%38廈門銀行313.57%321.67%8.10%2.69%2.66%-3-79.03%-9.73%69.30%8.62%-27.11%-35.73%0.40%0.35%-5滬農(nóng)商行339.27%336.55%-2.72%3.29%3.26%-3-48.50%-19.84%28.66%-7.36%11.88%19.24%0.29%0.21%-8渝農(nóng)商行363.37%355.58%-7.79%4.25%4.16%-9-19.17%-27.58%-8.42%30.75%-33.81%-64.56%0.79%0.45%-34青農(nóng)商行246.76%249.00%2.24%4.37%4.36%-1-15.08%-19.25%-4.16%16.09%-23.34%-39.43%2.01%1.50%-51紫金銀行202.52%200.48%-2.04%2.51%2.50%-1-14.30%4.67%18.97%-44.69%21.30%66.00%0.22%0.68%46無錫銀行430.60%424.87%-5.73%3.36%3.33%-37.68%10.47%2.79%83.91%-7.42%-91.33%0.51%0.54%2蘇農(nóng)銀行420.03%386.88%-33.15%3.78%3.48%-30-3.14%-30.38%-27.25%-22.70%-42.11%-19.41%0.51%0.48%-4江陰銀行350.00%381.22%31.22%3.00%3.26%260.05%-3.27%-3.32%-25.23%-10.29%14.94%0.49%1.31%82瑞豐銀行326.08%340.28%14.20%3.17%3.34%16.43%-6.51%-22.95%66.62%0.65%-65.98%0.90%1.04%489.56%489.53%-0.03%3.74%3.74%013.38%10.97%-2.41%51.36%-22.52%-73.88%1.17%1.08%-9張家港行375.48%383.98%8.50%3.52%3.61%95.56%-2.30%-7.86%3.61%15.51%11.90%0.68%1.23%55236.46%237.35%0.90%3.00%3.01%0-1.10%5.43%6.54%-7.03%8.45%15.48%0.50%0.71%20股份219.33%220.04%0.71%2.64%2.64%0-7.62%-7.80%-0.18%-5.46%-1.78%3.67%0.99%0.94%-5城商296.62%290.49%-6.13%3.05%2.96%-97.72%11.91%4.18%12.67%7.74%-4.93%0.92%0.87%-5農(nóng)商338.69%337.16%-1.53%3.64%3.62%-2-12.57%-12.15%0.42%16.86%-16.46%-33.32%0.73%0.66%-6全部238.07%238.53%0.46%2.94%2.93%0-2.39%1.39%3.78%-4.34%4.96%9.30%0.65%0.77% 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明14/31農(nóng)商行已減值貸款率向不良率收斂，城商行擴大。風險新規(guī)規(guī)定了已減值金融勢，其中國有行對不良與減值貸款的認定標準始終一致，二者相差始終為零；股份原則上減值與不良認定標準統(tǒng)一將沖擊利潤表。會計準則對已減值貸款的定義風險五級分類中不良貸款的認定基于已發(fā)生損失模型，而已發(fā)生信用減值貸款的認要在過渡期內(nèi)完成口徑統(tǒng)一，即使已減值貸款撥備計提已充分，仍將面臨不良、撥備等相關指標的壓力。如將已減值貸款歸入不良時，不良抬升同時導致?lián)軅涓采w率下降，為了保持指標相對穩(wěn)定，銀行仍需補提撥備或核銷不良資產(chǎn)，因此仍將對利但過渡期內(nèi)不良與減值認定標準統(tǒng)一或仍有調(diào)整空間。除零售小微業(yè)務風險上行，市場亦擔憂減值與不良的口徑靠攏使得部分銀行撥備計提承壓。當前股份行與股份行貸款減值損失同比仍少計提、城商行同比增速亦下降，因此監(jiān)管規(guī)則上半年對股份、城商行撥備計提影響有限。由于年底風險新規(guī)過渡期將結(jié)束，若于年內(nèi)依報表口徑完成整改要求，部分銀行將大幅計提撥備，利潤表或承較大壓力。故我們認為銀行在年內(nèi)能否完成不良與減值認定的統(tǒng)一仍存不確定性，不排除壓力較大的銀行尋求監(jiān)管豁免的可能性。此外銀行報表已減值貸款的口徑，或與監(jiān)管認定標準有所差異，部分銀行減值與不良實際偏離幅度或低于報表呈現(xiàn)?；谏鲜鲆蛩匚覀冋J為銀行年內(nèi)因過渡期結(jié)束而需補提撥備的壓力有限，減值貸款歸入不良對利潤表 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明15/31工商銀行建設銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國銀行郵儲銀行交通銀行已減值貸款/不良貸款不良貸款率已減值貸款率已減值貸款率-不良貸款率20232024H20242025H20232024H20242025H20232024H20242025H20232024H20242025H100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%101%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%1.36%1.37%1.33%1.27%1.36%1.37%1.33%1.27%0.83%1.33%1.35%1.35%1.32%1.24%0.84%1.32%1.34%1.34%1.30%1.25%0.90%1.31%1.33%1.33%1.28%1.24%0.92%1.28%1.36%1.37%1.33%1.27%1.36%1.37%1.33%1.27%0.83%1.33%1.35%1.35%1.32%1.24%0.84%1.32%1.33%1.33%1.28%1.24%1.34%1.30%1.25%0.92%0.90%0.92%1.28%1.31%1.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%招商銀行100%100%100%100%0.95%0.94%0.95%0.93%0.95%0.94%0.95%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%浦發(fā)銀行137%126%126%125%1.48%1.41%1.36%1.31%2.02%1.78%1.72%1.63%0.54%0.37%0.36%0.33%興業(yè)銀行111%112%109%112%1.07%1.08%1.07%1.08%1.19%1.20%1.17%1.21%0.12%0.13%0.10%0.13%中信銀行104%104%104%105%1.18%1.19%1.16%1.16%1.22%1.24%1.21%1.22%0.04%0.05%0.04%0.06%民生銀行132%134%133%133%1.48%1.47%1.47%1.48%1.96%1.97%1.95%1.96%0.48%0.50%0.48%0.49%光大銀行104%106%110%119%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.25%1.30%1.33%1.37%1.48%0.04%0.07%0.12%0.24%平安銀行106%100%1.06%1.07%1.06%1.05%1.12%1.06%0.06%0.00%華夏銀行110%109%113%114%1.67%1.65%1.60%1.60%1.83%1.80%1.81%1.82%0.16%0.15%0.21%0.22%浙商銀行107%106%108%112%1.44%1.43%1.38%1.36%1.54%1.51%1.49%1.52%0.10%0.08%0.11%0.16%北京銀行100%100%101%101%1.32%1.31%1.31%1.30%1.32%1.31%1.32%1.31%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%上海銀行131%131%170%152%1.21%1.21%1.18%1.18%1.58%1.58%2.00%1.79%0.37%0.37%0.82%0.61%江蘇銀行100%100%100%100%0.91%0.89%0.89%0.84%0.91%0.89%0.89%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%南京銀行103%101%101%102%0.90%0.83%0.83%0.84%0.92%0.84%0.83%0.85%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.01%寧波銀行100%100%100%100%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%杭州銀行100%100%100%100%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%長沙銀行109%140%157%147%1.15%1.16%1.17%1.17%1.25%1.62%1.84%1.72%0.10%0.46%0.67%0.55%成都銀行100%100%100%100%0.68%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.68%0.66%0.66%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%重慶銀行173%172%168%127%1.34%1.25%1.25%1.17%2.31%2.15%2.10%1.48%0.97%0.90%0.85%0.31%貴陽銀行100%126%151%113%1.59%1.62%1.58%1.70%1.59%2.04%2.38%1.92%0.00%0.42%0.81%0.22%青島銀行100%100%100%100%1.18%1.17%1.14%1.12%1.18%1.17%1.14%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%齊魯銀行101%100%100%100%1.26%1.24%1.19%1.09%1.27%1.25%1.19%1.09%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%鄭州銀行174%254%283%292%1.87%1.87%1.79%1.76%3.25%4.75%5.06%5.16%1.38%2.88%3.28%3.39%蘇州銀行100%100%100%102%0.84%0.84%0.83%0.83%0.84%0.84%0.83%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%西安銀行158%150%183%170%1.35%1.72%1.72%1.60%2.12%2.58%3.14%2.71%0.78%0.86%1.42%1.12%廈門銀行151%140%163%174%0.76%0.76%0.74%0.83%1.15%1.06%1.20%1.44%0.39%0.30%0.47%0.61%滬農(nóng)商行100%101%101%104%0.97%0.97%0.97%0.97%0.98%0.98%0.97%1.01%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.04%渝農(nóng)銀行104%103%103%102%1.19%1.19%1.18%1.17%1.24%1.23%1.22%1.20%0.05%0.04%0.04%0.03%青農(nóng)商行143%158%121%100%1.81%1.80%1.79%1.75%2.60%2.84%2.17%1.76%0.78%1.04%0.38%0.00%紫金銀行100%113%100%99%1.16%1.15%1.24%1.24%1.16%1.30%1.24%1.24%0.00%0.15%0.00%-0.01%無錫銀行107%100%100%100%0.79%0.79%0.78%0.78%0.84%0.79%0.78%0.78%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%蘇農(nóng)銀行100%100%100%100%0.91%0.91%0.90%0.90%0.91%0.91%0.90%0.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%江陰銀行100%98%100%100%0.98%0.98%0.86%0.86%0.98%0.96%0.86%0.86%0.00%-0.02%0.00%0.00%瑞豐銀行100%102%101%103%0.97%0.97%0.97%0.98%0.98%0.99%0.97%1.01%0.00%0.02%0.01%0.03%常熟銀行105%106%105%127%0.75%0.76%0.81%0.76%0.79%0.81%0.85%0.97%0.04%0.05%0.04%0.20%張家港行108%122%123%122%0.94%0.94%0.94%0.94%1.01%1.15%1.15%1.15%0.08%0.20%0.22%0.21%股份城商農(nóng)商全部100%115%114%109%104%100%113%119%112%104%100%114%128%106%105%100%115%122%1.30% 1.28% 1.28%1.27% 1.30% 1.44% 1.21% 1.19%1.32%1.28%1.41%1.28%1.39%1.27%1.40%0.00%0.00% 0.10%0.13%0.05%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.17%0.19%1.25%1.24%1.22% 1.21% 1.09% 1.07% 1.09% 1.27%1.05% 1.08%1.25% 1.08% 1.04% 1.08% 1.24% 1.23%1.33%1.14%1.30%1.25% 1.12%1.29%0.29%0.23%0.06%0.06%0.05%104%105%0.06% 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明16/31零售、對公不良二者具有顯著差異。第一、零售不良單筆金額小，不良分布更加分散，而對公不良單筆規(guī)模通常在千萬至億元的數(shù)量級，且發(fā)生不良后處置壓力集中在大客戶；第二、零售不良發(fā)生后可打包處置，且處置方式多元化（如ABS偏長；第三、零售不良后續(xù)收回可能性較高（個人需維護其征信，且收入恢復后優(yōu)對公、零售不良差異使其撥備計提呈不對稱性。部分銀行披露零售、對公撥備弱于零售。故我們認為，當前雖處零售風險抬升時期，但由于零售及對公貸款的本質(zhì)差異，形成了其撥備計提的不對稱性，故當前撥備計提對利潤表的影響，或弱于此前2018年對公風險暴露時期，因此當前零售風險造成的撥備計提壓力相對可控。銀行類型國有行銀行零售撥備覆蓋率對公撥備覆蓋率20232024H20242025H20232024H20242025H 農(nóng)業(yè)銀行交通銀行郵儲銀行253.0253.01% 280.84% 280.12%280.12%2%股份行興業(yè)銀行民生銀行221.09% 219.19%202.94%城商行青島銀行齊魯銀行288.46% 02.85% 農(nóng)商行青農(nóng)商行無錫銀行江陰銀行瑞豐銀行85.30%85.30%227.49% 285.83% 7.99% 232.83%288.42% 496.01%704.32% %9.39% 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明17/31前撥備指標，更加真實的反映了銀行風險抵御能力。第三階段撥貸比反映撥備計提充分程度。銀行第三階段（已減值）貸款撥貸比國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部國有行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行全部 行業(yè)深度報告請務必參閱正文后面的信息披露和法律聲明18/31工商銀行建設銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國銀行郵儲銀行交通銀行21.88%21.81%19.65%工商銀行建設銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國銀行郵儲銀行交通銀行21.88%21.81%19.65%24.13%26.87%27.71%23.32%22.67%23.29%20.98%21.60%23.76%26.92%25.69%26.36%23.01%22.16%18.81%1.37%1.61%2.89%1.17%1.98%1.09%1.39%1.45%1.50%1.58%2.93%1.18%1.71%1.22%1.30%1.34%2.73%1.17%1.53%1.22%72.72%72.77%80.25%77.75%69.02%67.76%73.87%72.20%2.66%1.13%1.29%1.28%21.34%28.47%24.60%21.39%22.63%18.42%第一階段第二階段第三階段20232024H120242025H120232024H120242025H120232024H120242025H161.80%58.45%63.79%63.83%71.04%69.68%69.41%69.65%92.87%93.45%90.96%91.94%64.19%63.91%62.95%64.23%招商銀行2.71%2.58%2.39%2.25%28.81%27.55%27.78%25.70%86.44%87.57%85.11%85.47%浦發(fā)銀行0.83%0.76%0.72%0.73%10.53%11.47%67.24%71.07%75.95%78.87%興業(yè)銀行1.24%1.06%21.81%24.30%25.63%20.93%78.34%79.67%75.93%72.33%中信銀行1.19%1.21%28.13%28.03%25.41%26.10%66.32%63.48%70.93%70.34%民生銀行0.63%0.62%0.63%0.61%13.85%12.97%53.23%53.48%49.96%51.77%光大銀行0.85%0.77%0.78%0.69%16.94%14.86%63.07%63.16%71.38%68.89%平安銀行1.60%1.60%22.72%22.72%61.09%61.09%63.86%63.86%華夏銀行0.78%0.79%0.76%0.73%20.20%21.19%67.92%69.60%66.06%66.62%浙商銀行0.79%0.81%0.73%0.66%26.49%23.65%22.95%21.63%65.77%65.44%64.20%62.15%北京銀行1.69%1.62%1.61%1.55%17.57%17.23%64.32%59.54%62.41%59.18%上海銀行1.34%1.19%14.99%15.92%70.65%76.29%63.55%58.10%江蘇銀行2.19%1.89%1.89%1.73%17.36%14.13%76.16%81.22%78.85%77.62%南京銀行1.45%1.35%38.35%36.40%37.33%38.25%85.24%85.24%81.10%78.64%寧波銀行2.48%2.10%1.97%1.88%25.37%18.75%71.15%70.36%68.82%70.62%杭州銀行3.36%2.99%2.93%2.71%18.77%17.83%20.58%19.75%69.27%74.06%72.84%69.17%長沙銀行1.97%2.48%1.78%1.75%21.57%20.50%22.08%22.00%68.71%61.30%59.20%59.10%成都銀行2.83%2.68%2.57%2.29%23.03%25.55%23.68%24.31%76.04%75.26%73.08%73.95%重慶銀行0.88%0.78%0.96%1.15%21.89%28.86%28.72%23.31%64.69%64.14%63.95%68.77%貴陽銀行1.53%1.49%31.81%27.20%19.15%24.05%76.79%72.55%74.95%80.16%青島銀行1.74%1.88%1.80%1.91%21.49%18.94%70.66%66.88%76.08%73.19%齊魯銀行2.66%2.85%2.90%2.90%19.29%19.32%19.57%19.33%72.86%66.77%66.03%64.66%鄭州銀行0.98%0.83%0.81%0.77%16.17%17.30%45.15%38.78%37.16%38.03%蘇州銀行3.34%3.00%3.08%10.43%31.46%36.32%25.36%20.35%82.15%78.90%57.91%70.19%西安銀行0.88%0.89%0.97%1.11%8.54%7.54%6.88%6.72%58.82%56.73%58.94%65.33%廈門銀行2.30%2.25%2.05%1.82%12.72%11.97%10.44%8.36%60.72%54.02%53.33%50.53%滬農(nóng)商行2.48%2.25%2.00%1.83%18.60%17.70%72.91%69.89%79.14%76.90%渝農(nóng)商行2.64%2.57%2.62%2.57%34.15%34.86%33.30%29.