2025年CFA二級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析模擬考試時(shí)間：______分鐘總分：______分姓名：______Instructions:Answerallquestionsinthespacesprovided.Showallworkwherecalculationsarerequired.Donotuseacalculator.Question1:Acompanyisexpectedtogeneratefreecashflowof$100millionnextyear.Growthinfreecashflowisprojectedtogrowataconstantrateof5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthecompany'sweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC)is10%,whatisthevalueofthecompany'soperations(FCFF)usingtheperpetuitygrowthmodel?Assumethecompanyhasnodebtandnooutstandingpreferredstock.Question2:Youareanalyzinga5-yearbondwithafacevalueof$1,000andacouponrateof6%paidsemi-annually.Thebond'syieldtomaturity(YTM)is5%.Calculatethebond'scurrentprice.Whatisthebond'smodifiedduration?Question3:Aninvestorholdsacalloptiononastockwithastrikepriceof$50.Theoptionhasadeltaof0.6.Ifthestockpriceincreasesby$2,whatistheapproximatechangeintheoption'svalue?Question4:Explaintheconceptofduration.Howdoesmodifieddurationdifferfromeffectiveduration?Whyismodifieddurationmorecommonlyusedinportfoliomanagement?Question5:Aportfoliomanagerusesa1-year95%confidencelevelVaRcalculationfora$10millionportfolio.ThecalculatedVaRis$200,000.TheportfoliomanagerdecidestoadjusttheportfoliotoreduceitsVaRto$150,000whilemaintainingthesameexpectedreturn.Describethepotentialtrade-offsinvolvedinthisdecision,consideringtheportfolio'sriskcharacteristicsandthemanager'sinvestmentobjectives.Question6:Compareandcontrastthesemi-strongformoftheEfficientMarketHypothesis(EMH)withtheweakform.Provideanexampleofaninvestmentstrategythatcouldpotentiallyexploitamarketinefficiencyunderthesemi-strongformofEMH.Question7:Youareanalyzingtwocompaniesinthesameindustry.CompanyAhasahigherbetaof1.5comparedtoCompanyB'sbetaof1.0.Assumetherisk-freerateis2%andthemarketriskpremiumis5%.CalculatetherequiredrateofreturnforeachcompanyusingtheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM).Discusstheimplicationsoftheirdifferentbetasontheirexpectedstockreturnsandpotentialinvestmentattractiveness.Question8:Acompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof$2nextyear,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantrateof7%peryearindefinitely.Iftherequiredrateofreturnonthestockis12%,whatisthestock'sintrinsicvalueusingtheGordonGrowthModel?Assumethecompanyhasapayoutratioof60%andnodebt.Question9:DescribethekeyinputsrequiredforaDiscountedCashFlow(DCF)analysisandexplainthesensitivityoftheDCFvaluationtochangesintheseinputs.Whichinputdoyoubelievetypicallyhasthemostsignificantimpactonthevaluation,andwhy?Question10:Aninvestorisconsideringbuyingaputoptiononastockwithastrikepriceof$40.Theoptionpremiumis$3.Thestockpaysnodividends.Theinvestor'scostbasisforthestockis$35.Underwhatmarketconditionswouldtheinvestorlikelyexercisetheputoption,andwhatisthemaximumpotentiallossiftheinvestorexercisestheoptionwhenthestockpriceis$30?Question11:Explainthedifferencebetweenaforwardcontractandafuturescontract.Whataretheprimarydifferencesintheirpricing,settlement,andmarketparticipants?Question12:Aportfolioconsistsof60%stocksand40%bonds.Theexpectedreturnonstocksis10%,theexpectedreturnonbondsis4%,andthecorrelationcoefficientbetweenstocksandbondsis0.1.Whatistheexpectedreturnoftheportfolio?Ifthestandarddeviationofstockreturnsis15%andthestandarddeviationofbondreturnsis5%,whatistheapproximatestandarddeviationoftheportfolio?Question13:Youareanalyzingacompanyconsideringastocksplit.Thecurrentstockpriceis$120pershare.Thecompanyproposesa3-for-1stocksplit.Whatwillbetheexpectedstockpricepershareafterthesplit,assumingthesplitdoesnotaffectthecompany'smarketcapitalizationoroverallvalue?Explainthepotentialbenefitsanddrawbacksofastocksplitforthecompanyanditsshareholders.Question14:Discusstheroleofcreditratingsinthefixedincomemarket.Howdocreditratingsaffectthepriceandyieldofbonds?Whatarethelimitationsofrelyingsolelyoncreditratingsforcreditriskassessment?Question15:Aninvestorisconcernedaboutpotentialmarketdownturnsandisconsideringusingputoptionsonamarketindexasahedgingstrategy.Describethemechanicsofthisstrategy,includingtheinitialcost,potentialoutcomes,andtherisksinvolved.Howwouldtheeffectivenessofthishedgedependonthedeltaoftheputoptions?試卷答案Question1:Valueofoperations(FCFF)=$100million/(10%-5%)=$1,000millionor$1billion.*解析思路：*應(yīng)用永續(xù)增長(zhǎng)模型（PerpetuityGrowthModel）計(jì)算FCFF。公式為FCFF=FCFF1/(WACC-g)，其中FCFF1為下一年的自由現(xiàn)金流，g為永續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率，WACC為加權(quán)平均資本成本。將數(shù)值代入公式即可得出結(jié)果。Question2:*BondPrice:Calculatethepresentvalueofthesemi-annualcouponpaymentsandthefacevalue.*Couponpaymentperperiod=6%/2*$1,000=$30.*Numberofperiods=5years*2=10periods.*YTMperperiod=5%/2=2.5%.*BondPrice=$30*PVIFA(2.5%,10)+$1,000*PVIF(2.5%,10)*BondPrice=$30*[1-(1+0.025)^-10]/0.025+$1,000/(1+0.025)^10*BondPrice=$30*[1-0.807513]/0.025+$1,000/1.280084*BondPrice=$30*3.9069+$1,000/1.280084*BondPrice=$116.209+$781.198=$897.407(approx.$897.41).*ModifiedDuration:CalculateusingtheMacaulaydurationformulaandthenadjust.*MacaulayDuration=Σ[t*(C/P0)]+[n*F/P0]/P0*PVofCashFlows:$30*PVIFA(2.5%,10)+$1,000*PVIF(2.5%,10)=$897.407(ascalculated).*MacaulayDuration=[0.5*($30*0.807513)+1.0*($30*0.762699)+...+9.0*($30*0.191019)+10.0*($30*0.190749+$1,000/1.280084)]/$897.407*MacaulayDuration=[0.5*$24.226+1.0*$22.881+...+9.0*$5.733+10.0*($5.722+$781.198)]/$897.407*MacaulayDuration=[$12.113+$22.881+...+$51.597+$7,866.820]/$897.407*MacaulayDuration=$95.348/$897.407=10.629years(approx.10.63).*ModifiedDuration=MacaulayDuration/(1+YTMperperiod)=10.629/(1+0.025)=10.629/1.025=10.38years(approx.10.38).*解析思路：*計(jì)算債券價(jià)格需要將所有未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流（CouponPayments和FaceValue）折現(xiàn)到當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)。使用半年度計(jì)息，調(diào)整期數(shù)和折現(xiàn)率。計(jì)算修正久期首先需要計(jì)算麥克迪duration，即各期現(xiàn)金流現(xiàn)值乘以期數(shù)之和，再除以債券價(jià)格。修正久期是麥克迪duration除以（1+每期收益率），它提供了價(jià)格對(duì)利率變化的近似敏感度。Question3:Changeinoptionvalue≈Delta*Changeinstockprice=0.6*$2=$1.20.*解析思路：*期權(quán)Delta衡量的是標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)對(duì)期權(quán)價(jià)值變動(dòng)的影響程度。近似計(jì)算時(shí)，期權(quán)價(jià)值的變化等于Delta乘以標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的變化。因此，當(dāng)股票價(jià)格上漲2美元時(shí)，該看漲期權(quán)的價(jià)值約增加1.20美元。Question4:*DurationConcept:Durationmeasuresthesensitivityofabond'spricetochangesininterestrates.Itisexpressedinyearsandrepresentstheweightedaveragetimeuntilcashflowsarereceived,withweightsproportionaltothepresentvalueofeachcashflow.*Modifiedvs.EffectiveDuration:ModifieddurationiscalculatedasMacaulayDuration/(1+YTM/m),wheremisthenumberofcouponpaymentsperyear.Itprovidesamoreaccuratemeasureofthepercentagechangeinpriceforagivenchangeinyieldtomaturity.Effectivedurationconsidersthechangeinpriceacrossarangeofinterestratescenarios(e.g.,+1%and-1%shift)andcalculatestheaveragepercentagechangeinprice,weightedbytheprobabilityofeachscenario.Itaccountsforconvexityeffects.*UsageinPortfolioManagement:Modifieddurationismorecommonlyusedforindividualbondorportfolioimmunization(matchingdurationtotargethorizon)becauseitprovidesasingle,linearmeasureofpricesensitivitythatisdirectlycomparabletothechangeinyield.Effectivedurationoffersamorecomprehensivemeasureincorporatingconvexitybutismorecomplextocalculateandtypicallyusedformoresophisticatedriskanalysisorwhenmodelingpricechangesunderdifferentyieldenvironments.*解析思路：*解釋duration作為衡量利率變動(dòng)對(duì)債券價(jià)格影響程度的指標(biāo)。區(qū)分modifiedduration和effectiveduration的計(jì)算方法和側(cè)重點(diǎn)：modifiedduration是線性近似，考慮單點(diǎn)收益率變動(dòng)；effectiveduration是二次近似，考慮區(qū)間內(nèi)收益率變動(dòng)，能更好反映convexity。說(shuō)明在投資組合管理中，modifiedduration因其線性、可比性，更常用于免疫策略；effectiveduration因其全面性，用于更復(fù)雜的分析。Question5:*Trade-offs:ReducingVaRfrom$200kto$150kbyadjustingtheportfolioinvolveschangingtheportfolio'sassetallocation,potentiallybyincreasingtheallocationtolessriskyassets(e.g.,bonds)orreducingexposuretoriskierassets(e.g.,equities).Thetrade-offisprimarilybetweenriskandreturn.ReducingVaRgenerallyimpliesloweringtheexpectedreturnoftheportfolio,asriskandreturnarepositivelycorrelated.Theportfoliomanagermustbalancetheneedforlowerrisk(asreflectedbythelowerVaR)withtheinvestmentobjectivesandtheminimumacceptablereturnfortheinvestors.*RiskCharacteristics:Theadjustmentmightchangetheportfolio'soverallriskprofile,suchasloweringthestandarddeviationofreturnsbutpotentiallyincreasingtheprobabilityofsmalllosseswhilereducingthepotentialforlargegains.Themanagerneedstounderstandhowthechangesaffectdifferentaspectsofrisk(e.g.,volatility,downsidedeviation).*InvestmentObjectives:Thedecisionmustalignwiththeportfolio'sstatedobjectives(e.g.,capitalpreservation,incomegeneration,long-termgrowth).Iftheobjectiveisprimarilycapitalpreservation,reducingVaRisdesirable.Iftheobjectiveisaggressivegrowth,acceptingahigherVaRmightbenecessary.*解析思路：*闡述降低VaR的策略（調(diào)整資產(chǎn)配置），以及其主要權(quán)衡（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與收益）。說(shuō)明這種調(diào)整如何影響投資組合的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征（如整體波動(dòng)性、虧損概率）。強(qiáng)調(diào)決策必須符合投資目標(biāo)。Question6:*Semi-Strongvs.WeakForms:*WeakformEMHstatesthatcurrentpricesreflectallpastpriceandtradingvolumeinformation.Technicalanalysis,whichreliesonhistoricalpricepatterns,cannotconsistentlygenerateexcessreturns.*Semi-strongformEMHstatesthatcurrentpricesreflectallpubliclyavailableinformation,includingpastprices,companyannouncements,economicdata,etc.Fundamentalanalysisbasedonpublicinformationcannotconsistentlygenerateexcessreturns.*ExploitingSemi-StrongFormInefficiency:Anexamplestrategyiseventstudyanalysis.Thisinvolvesidentifyingpredictablepriceanomaliesaroundspecificpublicannouncements(e.g.,earningssurprises,dividendannouncements,mergersandacquisitions).Byanalyzinghistoricaldata,investorscanidentifypatternswherethemarketreactsslowlyorpredictablytonewinformation.Forinstance,ifhistoricaldatashowsthatstocksconsistentlyunderreacttopositiveearningssurprises,aninvestorcouldbuythestockshortlyaftertheannouncement,anticipatingthatthepricewilladjustupwardslater.Thisstrategyreliesonthemarketnotfullyandinstantlyincorporatingallpubliclyavailableinformationintoprices.*解析思路：*清晰定義弱式和半強(qiáng)式有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)。指出弱式下技術(shù)分析無(wú)效，半強(qiáng)式下基于公開(kāi)信息的基本面分析無(wú)效。提供一個(gè)利用半強(qiáng)式市場(chǎng)無(wú)效性的具體策略示例：事件研究法，并解釋其基本邏輯（利用市場(chǎng)對(duì)新信息反應(yīng)的滯后或模式）。Question7:*RequiredRateofReturn:*CompanyA:ReA=Rf+βA*(Rm-Rf)=2%+1.5*(5%)=2%+7.5%=9.5%.*CompanyB:ReB=Rf+βB*(Rm-Rf)=2%+1.0*(5%)=2%+5%=7.0%.*Implications:*CompanyArequiresahigherreturn(9.5%)duetoitshigherbeta,indicatingitismoresensitivetomarketmovements.Thishigherrequiredreturncompensatesinvestorsfortakingonadditionalmarketrisk.Thestockmightbeconsideredriskier,anditsexpectedreturnshouldbehighertoattractinvestors.*CompanyBrequiresalowerreturn(7.0%)duetoitslowerbeta,suggestingitislesssensitivetomarketrisk.Thislowerrequiredreturnreflectsitslowerriskprofile.Thestockmightbeconsideredsafer,andinvestorswouldexpectalowerreturnforholdingit.*InvestmentAttractivenessdependsontheinvestor'srisktolerance.Arisk-seekinginvestormightpreferCompanyAforitshigherpotentialreturn(ifthehigherbetatranslatestohigherexpectedgrowth),whilearisk-averseinvestormightpreferCompanyBforitslowerriskandreturnrequirement.*解析思路：*應(yīng)用CAPM公式(Re=Rf+β*(Rm-Rf))分別計(jì)算兩家公司的必要回報(bào)率。比較結(jié)果，解釋Beta值與必要回報(bào)率、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及投資吸引力的關(guān)系。Question8:*IntrinsicValue:*StockPrice=D1/(Re-g)=$2/(12%-7%)=$2/5%=$40.**(Note:Usingthepayoutratioandgrowthratetobackouttherequiredreturnseemscircularwithoutfurtherinformation.ThepromptasksforintrinsicvalueusingtheGordonGrowthModel,whichtypicallyinputstherequiredreturn.Assumingthe12%istherequiredreturnbasedontheprompt).**AlternativeInterpretation(if60%payoutratioisrelevant):Ifthegoalistofindthevaluebasedonsustainablegrowth,weneedtheretentionratio(1-payoutratio)andthereturnonequity(ROE).*RetentionRatio(b)=1-0.60=0.40.*GrowthRate(g)=b*ROE.Sinceg=7%andb=0.40,wecanfindROE:ROE=g/b=7%/0.40=17.5%.*IntrinsicValue=D1/(ROE-g)=[E1*b]/(ROE-g)=E1/(ROE/b)=E1/(17.5%/0.40)=E1/43.75%.*WeneedE1.E1=D1/(1-g)=$2/(1-7%)=$2/0.93=$2.1505.*IntrinsicValue=$2.1505/43.75%=$4.931.*解析思路（基于第一解釋）：*直接應(yīng)用戈登增長(zhǎng)模型公式計(jì)算股票內(nèi)在價(jià)值。題目直接給出了D1和（Re-g），代入公式即可。*解析思路（基于第二解釋）：*題目給出股息、增長(zhǎng)率、派息比率。首先用派息比率和增長(zhǎng)率反推ROE。然后利用留存比率ROE和增長(zhǎng)率計(jì)算內(nèi)在價(jià)值。需要先求出E1（每股收益）。Question9:*KeyInputsforDCF:TerminalValue(orhorizonvalue),FreeCashFlow(FCF)fortheforecastperiod,DiscountRate(WACC),Numberofforecastyears.*Sensitivity:DCFvaluationishighlysensitivetochangesinseveralkeyinputs,particularly:*TerminalValue:Thisrepresentsthevalueofthecompanybeyondtheforecastperiod.Itistypicallycalculatedusingaperpetuitygrowthmodel,makingitsensitivetothelong-termgrowthrateassumption(g).Asmallchangeingcansignificantlyimpactthetotalvaluation.*WACC:Thediscountratereflectstheriskofthecashflows.Changesinthemarketriskpremium,therisk-freerate,orthecompany'sbetawilldirectlychangetheWACCandthusthepresentvalueoffuturecashflows.*ForecastedFCF:Errorsorbiasesinestimatingfuturesales,costs,capitalexpenditures,andworkingcapitalrequirementswilldirectlyaffectthecalculatedFCFsandtheoverallvaluation.*MostSignificantInput:Theinputwiththemostsignificantimpactisoftentheterminalgrowthrate(g)usedintheperpetuityvaluation.BecauseitismultipliedbythelastforecastedFCFandthendiscountedbackoveralongperiod(typicallyperpetuity),evensmallchangesingcanhaveamagnifiedeffectonthetotalenterprisevalue.However,theWACCisalsocriticallyimportant,asitdirectlydeterminesthediscountingrateappliedtoallfuturecashflows.TheaccuracyofforecastedFCFsisfundamental,buttheirimpactisdistributedacrossmultipleyears.*解析思路：*列出DCF分析的關(guān)鍵輸入變量。分析每個(gè)輸入變量變化對(duì)估值的影響程度。指出最顯著影響的輸入通常是永續(xù)增長(zhǎng)率g，因其對(duì)終值的計(jì)算有乘數(shù)效應(yīng)且需長(zhǎng)期折現(xiàn)；WACC和預(yù)測(cè)的FCF也非常關(guān)鍵，分別影響折現(xiàn)率和現(xiàn)金流本身。Question10:*ExerciseConditions:Aninvestorwouldlikelyexerciseaputoptionwhenthemarketpriceoftheunderlyingstock(St)issignificantlybelowthestrikeprice(K).Specifically,ifSt<K-PremiumPaid.Inthiscase,St=$30,K=$40,PremiumPaid=$3.St($30)<K-Premium($40-$3=$37).Therefore,exercisingtheputoptionisprofitable.*MaximumPotentialLoss:Themaximumlossoccursiftheinvestorexercisestheoptionwhenthestockpriceisbelowthestrikeprice,butthelossislimitedtothedifferencebetweenthestrikepriceandthestockprice,minusthepremiumpaid.*MaximumLoss=Max(0,K-St)-PremiumPaid*IfSt=$30(whichtriggersexercise),MaximumLoss=($40-$30)-$3=$10-$3=$7pershare.*Alternatively,iftheinvestorexerciseswhenSt=$30,theysellthestockatK($40),receiving$40.Theirnetpositionis$40-$30(marketvalue)-$3(premiumpaid)=$7loss.Themaximumlossisthus$7.*解析思路：*判斷期權(quán)行權(quán)點(diǎn)（St<K-Premium）。計(jì)算最大損失，要么是行權(quán)價(jià)減去市價(jià)，要么是行權(quán)收入減去成本（市價(jià)+期權(quán)費(fèi)），取較小者（本題中為$7）。Question11:*ForwardContractvs.FuturesContract:*ForwardContract:Anagreementtobuyorsellanassetatapredeterminedpriceonafuturedate.Itistypicallyover-the-counter(OTC),customizedtothepartiesinvolved,andgenerallynotmarkedtomarketdaily.Itinvolvescounterpartycreditrisk.Settlementusuallyoccursatmaturity.*FuturesContract:Astandardizedagreementtobuyorsellanassetatapredeterminedpriceonafuturedate,tradedonanexchange.Futurescontractsaremarkedtomarketdaily,meaninggainsandlossesaresettleddaily,creatingdailycashflows.Theyusemarginrequirements(initialandmaintenancemargin)anddailysettlement(marking-to-market)tomanagerisk.ExchangetradinggenerallyreducescounterpartyriskcomparedtoOTCforwards.*Differences:*TradingVenue:Futuresareexchange-traded;forwardsareOTC.*Standardization:Futuresarestandardized(contractsize,deliverydate,etc.);forwardsarecustomized.*Settlement:Futuresaremarkedtomarketdaily;forwardsaresettledatmaturity(usually).*Clearing/Margins:Futuresuseclearinghousesandmarginsystems;forwardsinvolvedirectcounterpartyrelationshipsandcounterpartyrisk.*CreditRisk:Futureshavelowercounterpartycreditriskduetoclearinghouse;forwardshavehighercounterpartyrisk.*Costs:Futuresmayhavelowertransactioncostsduetoexchangestructure;forwardsmayhavelowerexplicitcostsbuthigherimplicitcounterpartyriskcosts.*解析思路：*分別定義遠(yuǎn)期合約和期貨合約。列出它們?cè)诮灰讏?chǎng)所、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化程度、結(jié)算方式（每日盯市vs到期結(jié)算）、清算機(jī)制、保證金和信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等方面的主要區(qū)別。Question12:*ExpectedReturnofPortfolio(Rp):*Rp=wS*Rs+wB*Rb*Rp=0.60*10%+0.40*4%*Rp=6%+1.6%=7.6%.*PortfolioStandardDeviation(σp):Requiresthecorrelationcoefficient(ρ)andstandarddeviations(σ).Theformulafortheportfoliovariance(σp2)is:*σp2=wS2*σS2+wB2*σB2+2*wS*wB*ρ*σS*σB*σp=√[wS2*σS2+wB2*σB2+2*wS*wB*ρ*σS*σB]*σp=√[(0.60)2*(15%)2+(0.40)2*(5%)2+2*(0.60)*(0.40)*(0.1)*(15%)*(5%)]*σp=√[(0.36)*(0.0225)+(0.16)*(0.0025)+2*(0.24)*(0.1)*(0.15)*(0.05)]*σp=√[0.0081+0.0004+2*0.24*0.1*0.0075]*σp=√[0.0085+0.000036]*σp=√[0.008536]≈0.0924or9.24%.*解析思路：*計(jì)算投資組合預(yù)期回報(bào)率，是各資產(chǎn)權(quán)重乘以其預(yù)期回報(bào)率的加權(quán)平均。計(jì)算投資組合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差需要用到協(xié)方差（或相關(guān)系數(shù)和各自標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差）。由于是兩種資產(chǎn)，可以使用簡(jiǎn)化公式。將給定的權(quán)重、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和相關(guān)系數(shù)代入公式，進(jìn)行計(jì)算。注意單位統(tǒng)一為小數(shù)。Question13:*ExpectedPost-SplitStockPrice:Astocksplitdoesnotchangethecompany'stotalmarketcapitalizationoritsintrinsicvaluepershare.Ifthestockpriceis$120andsplits3-for-1,thetotalmarketcapremainsthesame.Iftherewereoriginally1millionshares,themarketcapwas$120million.Afterthesplit,therewillbe3millionshares.Thenewpricepershareshouldbethetotalmarketcapdividedbythenewnumberofshares:$120million/3millionshares=$40pershare.*PotentialBenefits:*PsychologicalEffect:Alowerstockpricemightmakethestockappearmoreaffordabletoindividualretailinvestors,potentiallyincreasingdemandandliquidity.*Liquidity:Lowerpricescanleadtoincreasedtradingvolume,whichcanimprovethestock'sliquidity.*PotentialDrawbacks:*DilutionPerceived:Someinvestorsmightperceivethesplitnegatively,thinkingitsignalsthatthestockpricehasbeenrisingtooquicklyandisnow"overpriced,"eventhoughthesplititselfdoesn'tchangevalue.*ProportionalOwnership:Eachshareholder'sproportionalownershippercentageremainsunchanged.Onlythenumberofsharesheldchanges.*NoImpactonFundamentals:Thesplitdoesnotimprovethecompany'sfinancialperformance,earnings,orgrowthprospects.*解析思路：*解釋股票分割對(duì)市場(chǎng)總價(jià)值（市值）和股東權(quán)益（內(nèi)在價(jià)值）沒(méi)有影響。計(jì)算分割后的理論股價(jià)（總市值/新股數(shù)）。分析分割可能帶來(lái)的正面影響（心理效應(yīng)、流動(dòng)性提升）和負(fù)面解讀或?qū)嶋H影響（可能被視為價(jià)格過(guò)高信號(hào)、所有權(quán)比例不變、基本面無(wú)改善）。Question14:*RoleofCreditRatings:Creditratingsareassignedbyindependentratingagencies(likeMoody's,S&P,Fitch)toassessthecreditworthinessofbondissuersandtheirspecificbonds.Theyprovideanopiniononthelikelihoodthattheissuerwillbeabletomeetitsfinancialobligations(maketimelyinterestandprincipalpayments).RatingstypicallyrangefromAAA(highestquality)downtoD(indefault).Theyserveasaquickreferencetoolforinvestorstogaugedefaultrisk.*EffectonPriceandYield:Creditratingshaveasignificantimpactonbondpricesandyields.*HigherRating=LowerDefaultRisk=HigherBondPrice=LowerYield:Investorsdemandalowerreturn(yield)forbondswithhigherratingsbecausetheyareconsideredsaferinvestments.*LowerRating=HigherDefaultRisk=LowerBondPrice=HigherYield:Bondswithlowerratingsareriskier,soinvestorsrequireahigheryieldtocompensatefortheincreasedprobabilityofdefault.Theseareoftencalled"junk"or"high-yield"bonds.*Changesincreditratings(upgradesordowngrades)cancauseimmediatechangesinbondprices.Anupgradetypicallyincreasesdemandandprice(decreasesyield),whileadowngradetypicallydecreasesdemandandprice(increasesyield).*Limitations:Relyingsolelyoncreditratingshaslimitations:*SubjectivityandCredibility:Ratingsareopinionsbasedonagencymethodologies,whichcanbesubjectiveandhavefacedcriticismregardingaccuracyandconsistency,aswellaspotentialconflictsofinterest(issuerspayforratings).*LaggingIndicators:Ratingsupdatesmaynotalwaysbetimelyandcanlagbehinddeterioratingfinancialconditions.*NotaCompletePicture:Ratingsfocusprimarilyondefaultriskbutmaynotcaptureallaspectsofrisk(e.g.,liquidityrisk,interestraterisk,exchangeraterisk)orprovidedetailedgranularinformationaboutspecificvulnerabilities.*MultipleRatings:Differentagenciesmayassigndifferentratingstothesameissuer/bond,creatingconfusion.*InvestorBias:Someinvestorsmayoverlyrelyonratings,whileothersmayexplicitlytradeagainstthem.*解析思路：*闡述信用評(píng)級(jí)的作用（評(píng)估違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）。解釋信用評(píng)級(jí)如何通過(guò)影響投資者預(yù)期，進(jìn)而影響債券價(jià)格和收益率（高評(píng)級(jí)->低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)->高價(jià)格->低收益率）。最后指出完全依賴信用評(píng)級(jí)的局限性（主觀性、滯后性、不全面性、多重評(píng)級(jí)問(wèn)題）。Question15:*MechanicsofUsingPutOptionsforHedging:Thisstrategyinvolvestakingalongpositioninputoptionsonamarketindex(orabasketofstocksrepresentingtheindex)toprotectagainstapotentialdeclineinthevalueofanunderlyingportfolioorinvestment.Theinvestorpaysapremiumfortheputoptions.*InitialCost:Theinvestorpaysthepremiumfortheputoptions.Thisrepresentsthemaximumpotentiallossiftheoptionsexpireworthless.*PotentialOutcomes: