第十一講國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.第十一講國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及管理ChapterObjectiv1WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalrisk istheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指東道國(guó)的商業(yè)環(huán)境發(fā)生非預(yù)期的變化，從而對(duì)跨國(guó)公司的價(jià)值產(chǎn)生影響。）2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.TheimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimportsWhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsI2３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant３.Countryriskanalysiscanbe3thecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Politicalrisk（政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk（財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.thecompaniesthatassesscoun4PoliticalRiskFactorsA.AttitudeofconsumersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailuretoenforcecopyrightlaws.PoliticalRiskFactorsA.Attit5PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrenciesPoliticalRiskFactorsC.Block6E.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2003WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption（腐?。〤orruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsE.WarPoliticalRiskFactors7CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore 1 Finland 9.9 3 NewZealand 9.4 4 Singapore 9.2 7 Canada 8.9 13 U.K. 8.3 14 HongKong 7.9 16 Israel 7.6 16 U.S.A. 7.6 18 Chile 7.5 20 Germany 7.4 21 Japan 7.1RankCountryScore 23 France 6.7 26 Botswana 6.0 27 Taiwan 5.9 38 SouthAfrica 4.8 42 SouthKorea 4.2 46 Brazil 4.0 51 Mexico 3.7 57 Argentina 3.5 57 China 3.5 79 Russia 2.3 88 Indonesia 1.9CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTh8CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountriesMaximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.CorruptionIndexRatingsforS9OnlineApplicationOnlineApplication10FinancialRiskFactorsA.CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.FinancialRiskFactorsA.Curre11ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExpropriationrisk（征用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）

–AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations（經(jīng)營(yíng)中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-changesinlawsorregulations..muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism（貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-e.g.,“buyAmerican.”Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds（資金轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights（知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）

-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExp12ExamplesoffinancialrisksCurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServices’

InternationalCountryRiskGuide（國(guó)際國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指南）includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestmentsExamplesoffinancialrisks13Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationRefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookathttp://www./.Visit/ifc/Whatarethepoliticalandfin14TypesofCountryRiskAssessment１.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisks——affectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在東道國(guó)整個(gè)國(guó)家范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的影響到所有企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如東道國(guó)的財(cái)政和貨幣政策、銀行系統(tǒng)、稅率、資本管制、匯率等的突然變化。） a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry: 1.)Politicalfactors 2.)Financialfactors b.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisks——specifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry（指僅對(duì)某一特定行業(yè)或企業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如移民政策的突然改變對(duì)大量使用外來勞動(dòng)力的企業(yè)造成的影響。）Theoverallassessmentthusconsistsofmacropoliticalrisk,macrofinancialrisk,micropoliticalrisk,andmicrofinancialrisk.TypesofCountryRiskAssessm15AssessmentsofcountryrisksBankofAmericaBusinessEnvironmentRiskIntelligenceControlRisksInformationServicesDunandBradstreetEconomistIntelligenceUnitEuromoney

InstitutionalInvestorMoody’sInvestorServicesOrgforEconCo-operationandDevelopmentPoliticalRiskServicesStandardandPoor’sAssessmentsofcountryrisksBa16Countryrisks

Africa

Asia

Europe

MidEast

AmericasA1 Australia Switzerland Canada UKA2 Botswana HKJapan Germany Kuwait USA S.Korea Italy UAEA3 Mauritius China Cyprus Israel Chile Namibia Thailand CzechRep TrinidadA4 Egypt India Latvia Saudi Mexico S.Africa Philippines Poland Arabia PanamaB Algeria Bangladesh Slovakia Egypt BrazilPeru Uganda SriLanka Russia Jordan VenezuelaC Congo Indonesia Azerbaijan IranSyria Haiti Kenya Vietnam Romania Turkey JamaicaD Nigeria Afghanistan Albania Iraq Argentina Sudan N.Korea Ukraine Cuba Zimbabwe Pakistan Yugoslavia EcuadorCountryrisks Africa Asia Euro17Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskAchecklistapproach（清單法）involvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechnique

（德爾菲法）involvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.Techniquesof

AssessingCount18Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskQuantitativeanalysis（定量分析法）techniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisits

（參觀視察法）involvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.Techniquesof

AssessingCount19Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayusethechecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactors.例如，國(guó)際國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指南（ICRG），設(shè)置了一個(gè)加權(quán)平均指數(shù)來反映國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，該指數(shù)由50%的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)、25%的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)和25%的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)構(gòu)成。Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskOften,firmsuseavarietyof20MeasuringCountryRiskThechecklistapproachinvolves:Assigningvaluesandweightstopoliticalandfinancialriskfactors,Multiplyingthefactorvalueswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethepoliticalandfinancialriskratings,Assigningweightstotheriskratings,andMultiplyingtheratingswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethecountryriskrating.MeasuringCountryRiskThec21CougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOverallCountryRiskRatingCougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOv22CougarCo.:

DerivationoftheOverallCountryRiskRatingCougarCo.:

Derivationofthe23注意：Theproceduresforquantifyingcountryriskwillvarywiththeassessor,thecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofoperationsbeingplanned.Firmsusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,andwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.MeasuringCountryRisk注意：MeasuringCountryRisk24AdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheproject’scashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgetingAdjustmentoftheDiscountRat25ImpactofCountryRiskonanMNC’sValue E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentExposureofForeignProjectstoCountryRisksImpactofCountryRiskonanM26Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk1. Negotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheinvestmentenvironmentThefinancialenvironment2. Structureforeignoperationstominimizecountryriskwhilemaximizingreturn3. ObtainpoliticalriskissuranceStrategiesformanagingcountr27StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestment（與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)配合）TheInvestmentEnvironmentcanbeagreedtoinanInvestmentagreementthatspecifiestherightsandobligationsoftheparties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,taxholidays)Laborissues(e.g.,useofexpatriatemanagers)Concessions

(e.g.,privilegedaccesstorestrictedmarkets)Obligations

(e.g.,tie-inprojects)Restrictions(e.g.,onimportsorexportstoothermarkets)ProvisionsforplannedinvestmentdivestiturePerformanceassurancesonthepartofthehostgovernmentRemediesagainstdelayorexpropriationProvisionsandvenuesforinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStrategiesformanagingcountr28StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheFinancialEnvironment:Cashflowremittance

(managementfees,royalties,loanrepayments,dividends,transferpricing)Accesstocapitalmarketsinthehostcountry,includinganyownershiprestrictionsPossibilityofsubsidizedfinancingfromthehostgovernmentCorporate

governanceenvironmentRemediesincaseofcorporatenonperformanceorgovernmentdefault,includingprovisionsandvenuesfortheinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStrategiesformanagingcountr29StructureforeignoperationstominimizeriskwhilemaximizingreturnLimitthescopeoftechnologytransfertoforeignaffiliatestoincludeonlynon-essentialpartsoftheproductionprocessLimitdependenceonanysinglepartnerEnlistlocalpartnersUsemorestringentinvestmentcriteriaPlanfordisasterrecoveryStrategiesformanagingcountryriskStructureforeignoperationst30ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversThebenefitsofDFIcanbeoffsetbycountryrisk,themostsevereofwhichisahostgovernmenttakeover.Toreducethechanceofatakeoverbythehostgovernment,firmsoftenusethefollowingstrategies:UseaShort-TermHorizonThistechniqueconcentratesonrecoveringcashflowquickly.ReducingExposure

toHostGove31ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversRelyonUniqueSuppliesorTechnologyInthisway,thehostgovernmentwillnotbeabletotakeoverandoperatethesubsidiarysuccessfully.HireLocalLabor聘請(qǐng)本地勞工Thelocalemployeescanapplypressureontheirgovernment.ReducingExposure

toHostGove32BorrowLocalFundsThelocalbankscanapplypressureontheirgovernment.PurchaseInsuranceInvestmentguaranteeprogramsofferedbythehomecountry母國(guó),hostcountry,oraninternationalagencyinsuretosomeextentvariousformsofcountryrisk.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversBorrowLocalFundsReducingExp33PoliticalriskinsuranceInsurablepoliticalrisksincludeExpropriation（征用）duetowarrevolutioninsurrection暴動(dòng)civildisturbance內(nèi)亂terrorismRepatriationrestrictions遣返限制PoliticalriskinsuranceInsura34PoliticalriskinsurersGovernmentexportcreditagenciesU.S.OverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationU.K.ExportCreditsGuaranteeDepartmentInternationalWorldBank

MultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyPrivateLloyd’sofLondon

AmericanInternationalGroup(AIG)PoliticalriskinsurersGovernm35Politicalriskinsurers政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)AhistoryofpoliticalriskinsurancePriortothe1990s,governmentagenciessuchasOPICweretheprimaryunderwriters.Privateinsurerswereinactive.Politicalriskcovertypicallywasavailableonlyuptoabout$10millionandfortermsofonlyaboutthreeyears.TheWorldBank’sMIGAwascreatedin1990topromoteint’ltrade.Duringthe1990s,privateinsurersinfusedliquiditywithinsurableamountstomorethan$100millionandtermsofuptotenyears.Muchofthisgrowthintheprivatemarkethasbeendrivenbytheincreaseinprojectfinance.Thereisalsoanemergingreinsurancemarketthatallowsinsurerstolayofftheirpoliticalrisksontootherinsurersorprivateinvestors.ThecostsofpoliticalriskinsuranceAnnualpremiumsthroughLloyd’sofLondonortheAmericanInternationalGroup(AIG)canbeashighas10%oftheamountoftheinvestmentinhigh-riskcountries.Thepremiumsofprivateinsurersvarywidely,socorporationsshouldshoparoundforthebestterms.Politicalriskinsurers政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)A36UseprojectfinanceProjectfinancedeals（項(xiàng)目融資交易）areheavilyfinancedwithcredit,thuslimitingtheMNC’sexposure.Theloansaresecured（有抵押）bytheproject’sfuturerevenuesandare“nonrecourse.”（無追索權(quán)）AbankmayguaranteethepaymentstotheMNC.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversUseprojectfinanceReducingEx37演講完畢，謝謝觀看！演講完畢，謝謝觀看！38第十一講國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.第十一講國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及管理ChapterObjectiv39WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalrisk istheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指東道國(guó)的商業(yè)環(huán)境發(fā)生非預(yù)期的變化，從而對(duì)跨國(guó)公司的價(jià)值產(chǎn)生影響。）2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.TheimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimportsWhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsI40３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant３.Countryriskanalysiscanbe41thecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Politicalrisk（政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk（財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.thecompaniesthatassesscoun42PoliticalRiskFactorsA.AttitudeofconsumersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailuretoenforcecopyrightlaws.PoliticalRiskFactorsA.Attit43PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrenciesPoliticalRiskFactorsC.Block44E.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2003WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚）Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption（腐?。〤orruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsE.WarPoliticalRiskFactors45CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore 1 Finland 9.9 3 NewZealand 9.4 4 Singapore 9.2 7 Canada 8.9 13 U.K. 8.3 14 HongKong 7.9 16 Israel 7.6 16 U.S.A. 7.6 18 Chile 7.5 20 Germany 7.4 21 Japan 7.1RankCountryScore 23 France 6.7 26 Botswana 6.0 27 Taiwan 5.9 38 SouthAfrica 4.8 42 SouthKorea 4.2 46 Brazil 4.0 51 Mexico 3.7 57 Argentina 3.5 57 China 3.5 79 Russia 2.3 88 Indonesia 1.9CorruptionPerceptionsIndexTh46CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountriesMaximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.CorruptionIndexRatingsforS47OnlineApplicationOnlineApplication48FinancialRiskFactorsA.CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.FinancialRiskFactorsA.Curre49ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExpropriationrisk（征用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）

–AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations（經(jīng)營(yíng)中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-changesinlawsorregulations..muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism（貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-e.g.,“buyAmerican.”Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds（資金轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights（知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）

-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExp50ExamplesoffinancialrisksCurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServices’

InternationalCountryRiskGuide（國(guó)際國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指南）includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestmentsExamplesoffinancialrisks51Whatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationRefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookathttp://www./.Visit/ifc/Whatarethepoliticalandfin52TypesofCountryRiskAssessment１.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisks——affectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在東道國(guó)整個(gè)國(guó)家范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的影響到所有企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如東道國(guó)的財(cái)政和貨幣政策、銀行系統(tǒng)、稅率、資本管制、匯率等的突然變化。） a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry: 1.)Politicalfactors 2.)Financialfactors b.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisks——specifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry（指僅對(duì)某一特定行業(yè)或企業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如移民政策的突然改變對(duì)大量使用外來勞動(dòng)力的企業(yè)造成的影響。）Theoverallassessmentthusconsistsofmacropoliticalrisk,macrofinancialrisk,micropoliticalrisk,andmicrofinancialrisk.TypesofCountryRiskAssessm53AssessmentsofcountryrisksBankofAmericaBusinessEnvironmentRiskIntelligenceControlRisksInformationServicesDunandBradstreetEconomistIntelligenceUnitEuromoney

InstitutionalInvestorMoody’sInvestorServicesOrgforEconCo-operationandDevelopmentPoliticalRiskServicesStandardandPoor’sAssessmentsofcountryrisksBa54Countryrisks

Africa

Asia

Europe

MidEast

AmericasA1 Australia Switzerland Canada UKA2 Botswana HKJapan Germany Kuwait USA S.Korea Italy UAEA3 Mauritius China Cyprus Israel Chile Namibia Thailand CzechRep TrinidadA4 Egypt India Latvia Saudi Mexico S.Africa Philippines Poland Arabia PanamaB Algeria Bangladesh Slovakia Egypt BrazilPeru Uganda SriLanka Russia Jordan VenezuelaC Congo Indonesia Azerbaijan IranSyria Haiti Kenya Vietnam Romania Turkey JamaicaD Nigeria Afghanistan Albania Iraq Argentina Sudan N.Korea Ukraine Cuba Zimbabwe Pakistan Yugoslavia EcuadorCountryrisks Africa Asia Euro55Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskAchecklistapproach（清單法）involvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechnique

（德爾菲法）involvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.Techniquesof

AssessingCount56Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskQuantitativeanalysis（定量分析法）techniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisits

（參觀視察法）involvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.Techniquesof

AssessingCount57Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayusethechecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactors.例如，國(guó)際國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指南（ICRG），設(shè)置了一個(gè)加權(quán)平均指數(shù)來反映國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，該指數(shù)由50%的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)、25%的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)和25%的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)構(gòu)成。Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskOften,firmsuseavarietyof58MeasuringCountryRiskThechecklistapproachinvolves:Assigningvaluesandweightstopoliticalandfinancialriskfactors,Multiplyingthefactorvalueswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethepoliticalandfinancialriskratings,Assigningweightstotheriskratings,andMultiplyingtheratingswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethecountryriskrating.MeasuringCountryRiskThec59CougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOverallCountryRiskRatingCougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOv60CougarCo.:

DerivationoftheOverallCountryRiskRatingCougarCo.:

Derivationofthe61注意：Theproceduresforquantifyingcountryriskwillvarywiththeassessor,thecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofoperationsbeingplanned.Firmsusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,andwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.MeasuringCountryRisk注意：MeasuringCountryRisk62AdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheproject’scashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgetingAdjustmentoftheDiscountRat63ImpactofCountryRiskonanMNC’sValue E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentExposureofForeignProjectstoCountryRisksImpactofCountryRiskonanM64Strategiesformanagingcountryrisk1. Negotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheinvestmentenvironmentThefinancialenvironment2. Structureforeignoperationstominimizecountryriskwhilemaximizingreturn3. ObtainpoliticalriskissuranceStrategiesformanagingcountr65StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestment（與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)配合）TheInvestmentEnvironmentcanbeagreedtoinanInvestmentagreementthatspecifiestherightsandobligationsoftheparties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,taxholidays)Laborissues(e.g.,useofexpatriatemanagers)Concessions

(e.g.,privilegedaccesstorestrictedmarkets)Obligations

(e.g.,tie-inprojects)Restrictions(e.g.,onimportsorexportstoothermarkets)ProvisionsforplannedinvestmentdivestiturePerformanceassurancesonthepartofthehostgovernmentRemediesagainstdelayorexpropriationProvisionsandvenuesforinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStrategiesformanagingcountr66StrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheFinancialEnvironment:Cashflowremittance

(managementfees,royalties,loanrepayments,dividends,transferpricing)Accesstocapitalmarketsinthehostcountry,includinganyownershiprestrictionsPossibilityofsubsidizedfinancingfromthehostgovernmentCorporate

governanceenvironmentRemediesincaseofcorporatenonperformanceorgovernmentdefault,includingprovisionsandvenuesfortheinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStrategiesformanaging