DailyDailySpotlight29July2025Lastclose%1D%YTDHSI25,5620.727.4HSCEI9,1770.325.9HSCCI4,3280.114.5MSCIHK13,4422.227.3MSCICHINA810.425.4FTSECHINAA5013,9920.23.5CSI3004,1360.25.1TWSE23,4130.2SENSEX81,463(0.9)4.3NIKKEI22540,998(1.1)2.8KOSPI3,2100.433.8ASX2008,606(0.7)4.0DJIA44,838(0.1)5.4S&P5006,3900.08.6FTSE1009,081(0.4)*USdataasof28Jul2025Lastclose%1D%YTDBrentCrude(US$/bbl)702.9(3.1)Gold(US$/oz)3,315(0.7)26.3Copper(US$/t)9,770(1.1)Aluminum(US$/t)2,637(0.5)4.3Nickel(US$/t)15,115(1.0)0.0CHdomesticsteelrebar25(RMB/t)3,3590.3(5.9)CHdomestichighspeedwire(RMB/t)3,754(0.1)(1.4)CHdomestichotrolledsteel(RMB/t)3,469(0.1)(0.1)CHdomesticcoldrolledsteel(RMB/t)3,9240.0(6.5)BDI(index)2,2580.0126.5*USdataasof28Jul2025USJobOpeningsByIndustryTotalMerchantWholesalersInventoriMon%FHFAUSHousePriceIndexMoM%ConferenceBoardConsumerConf20HomePriceIndexHomePriceIndexComposite-20Y%HomePriceIndexUSHomePriceIndexUSY%ADP(k)MortgageBankersAssociationWoW%USPendingHomeSalesIndexMoM%USPendingHomeSalesIndexYoY%GDPUSChained2009DollarsQoQ%USGDPPriceIndexQoQ%USGDPPersonalConsumptionCorePriceQoQ%GDPUSPersonalConsumptionQoQ%ChallengerUSjobcutAnnounceYoY%FederalFundsTargetRateUS%USInitialJoblessClaims(k)USContinuingJoblessClaimsCorePCEIndexYoY%USPersonalIncomeMoM%Con-sensus29/77550.029/7(0.1)29/7(0.2)29/796.029/7--29/73.029/7--29/7--30/780.030/7--30/70.330/7--30/72.430/72.230/72.330/71.531/7--31/74.531/7223.031/71954.031/72.731/70.2Lastactual7769.0(0.3)(0.4)93.0341.53.4329.62.7(33.0)0.8(0.3)(0.5)3.83.50.5(1.6)4.5217.01955.02.7(0.4)BureauoflabourstatisticsEmpQoQ%31/7CensusBureauUSconstructionmonthly%1/8USAutoSalesTotalAnnualized1/8USaveragehourlyearningsallMoM%1/8USaveragehourlyearningsallYoY%1/80.80.015.80.33.80.9(0.3)15.30.23.7CorpAccessXinyiEnergy(1x1)3868.HKHK4AugNexteer(GroupMeetingat10:30am)1316.HKHK14AugMMG(1x1)1208.HKHK15AugBOCAviation(GroupLunch&1x1s)2588.HKHK25AugCIMCEnric(1x1Online)3899.HK27AugPleaseregisterwithyourBOCIsale張婉/彭助(i)“搶出口”疊加關(guān)稅沖擊導(dǎo)致出口壓力顯現(xiàn)，加上政府投融資靠前發(fā)力后廣義財(cái)政支出增長(zhǎng)放緩，將增加經(jīng)濟(jì)下半年增長(zhǎng)回落壓力，預(yù)計(jì)第三季度、第四季度GDP分別增長(zhǎng)4.7%和4.3%，全年GDP增長(zhǎng)4.9%。雖然實(shí)際增速下行，但廣義通脹跌幅有望收窄，預(yù)計(jì)CPI上半年同比下跌0.1%后，下半年恢復(fù)正增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)PPI跌幅收窄，共同帶動(dòng)GDP平減指數(shù)從上半年的-1%恢復(fù)到第四季度的-0.2%。(ii)當(dāng)前投資需求疲弱壓力可能更加突出，下半年制造業(yè)投資預(yù)計(jì)從上半年的7.5%放緩至3.6%，基建投資從8.9%放緩至6.8%?！耙耘f換新”政策下半年仍將支撐社零，居民非房地產(chǎn)消費(fèi)支出仍有增長(zhǎng)韌性，預(yù)計(jì)社會(huì)零售額下半年增長(zhǎng)4.3%，全年增長(zhǎng)4.6%，但2026年挑戰(zhàn)更加艱巨。(iii)預(yù)計(jì)下半年財(cái)政政策可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化存量政策的使用，并多渠道補(bǔ)充財(cái)政資金，包括使用已安排但未使用的部分地方專項(xiàng)債結(jié)存限額；增加政策性金融工具的使用；以及在必要時(shí)考慮適當(dāng)新增赤字或特別國(guó)債規(guī)模，但預(yù)計(jì)規(guī)模不會(huì)特別激進(jìn)。隨著人民幣匯率預(yù)期穩(wěn)定，貨幣政策預(yù)計(jì)仍有50個(gè)基點(diǎn)的降準(zhǔn)空間，但當(dāng)前比較窄的銀行凈息差和較低的存款利率水平可能會(huì)影響降息幅度，預(yù)計(jì)下半年降息10-15個(gè)基點(diǎn)。OurtakeonWAIC2025during26-28July.Theeventsinfrastructure,agentandapplications,embodiedroboticsapowerdevices,60+intelligenestablishedTechgiancatchingelementintheshow.ThepopularityofUnitree’sbhumanoidrobotdemoselaboratesthatthemarevent,webelieveChinaisonthesamepagewiththeUImportantdisclosuresandcertificationsarelBOCIresearchisavailableelectronicallyThisdocumentmaynotbedistributedinorintothePRC.林仲衡/林芷若(i)我們參加了7月26日至28日在上海舉行的2025年世界人工智能大會(huì)(WAIC)。WAIC集中展示了人工智能在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、智能體和應(yīng)用、機(jī)器人及下一代消費(fèi)硬件等領(lǐng)域的創(chuàng)新成果。(ii)得益于DeepSeek和AI的不斷發(fā)展，WAIC成為上周末上海乃至國(guó)內(nèi)最熱門的話題。大會(huì)吸引了800多家企業(yè)展示最新的產(chǎn)品和解決方案，包括40多種大語(yǔ)言模型、50多種AI設(shè)備、60多種智能機(jī)器人以及80多種全球或中國(guó)首發(fā)的創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品。我們?cè)L談了專業(yè)和熱情的AI領(lǐng)域初創(chuàng)公司，以及像華為和阿里巴巴這樣的科技巨頭。無(wú)論企業(yè)大小，各家公司均對(duì)AI應(yīng)用的未來(lái)充滿信心。(iii)與往屆不同，今年大會(huì)最引人注目的元素是包括人形機(jī)器人在內(nèi)的大量AI硬件的展示。宇樹(shù)科技公司的拳擊機(jī)器人比賽連同其他人形機(jī)器人展示均深受歡迎，這說(shuō)明了市場(chǎng)希望見(jiàn)到大語(yǔ)言模型和AI向可執(zhí)行的機(jī)器邁出下一個(gè)飛躍。與此同時(shí)，我們還看到許多AI智能體初創(chuàng)公司試圖在AI智能體以及OpenAIOperator執(zhí)行器的浪潮中探索新機(jī)會(huì)。上海的大會(huì)令我們相信中美在探索AI的許多方向上相當(dāng)一致，特別是在產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)大模型的商業(yè)化方面的探索。ThisdocumentmaynotbedistributedinorintothePRC.AllviewsexpressedinthismaviewsexpressedinthismateriaExceptasdisclosedherein,eachanalystdeclaresthat(i)neitherMembercompaniesoftheBOCIGroupco(i)donotownfinan(ii)certainnon-USmembercompaniesofBOCIGroup(iv)havenotmanagedorco-managedapub(v)havenotreceivedcompensationoramandateforinvestmentThisdisclosurestatementismadepursuanttoSecuritiesandFuturesCommission”andisusubsidiariesandaffiliatesmayhaveinthismatBOCIRatingDefinitions:BUY:StockwithexpecHOLD:StockwithexpectedtotalabsoluterSELL:StockwithexpectedtOVERWEIGHT:SectorexpectedtooutperformNEUTRAL:Sectorexpectedtoperformin-linewithmarkUNDERWEIGHT:SectorexpectedtounderperformthemarketThismaterialhasbeenpdistributiontoprofessional,accreditedandinstitutionalinvestorsonsolelyforinformationpart,foranypurposeoraltered,reproincludingthepressorthemedia,withoutthepriorwrittenconsenrespectivesubsidiariesreferencedhereinarebeneficiallyownedbyThedistributionofthismaterialinsomejurisdictionsmayberesto,orintendedfordistributiontoorusebstate,countryorotherju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