1、期貨市場理論與實務(wù),期貨市場理論與實務(wù)課程結(jié)構(gòu),期貨交易與期貨市場,期貨市場的基本功能,期貨市場的組織結(jié)構(gòu),期貨交易制度及合約,期貨套期保值交易,期貨投機(jī)與套利交易,金融期貨,期權(quán)與期貨期權(quán),期貨市場理論與實務(wù)課程結(jié)構(gòu),期貨交易與期貨市場,期貨市場的基本功能,期貨市場的組織結(jié)構(gòu),期貨交易制度及合約,期貨套期保值交易,期貨投機(jī)與套利交易,金融期貨,期權(quán)與期貨期權(quán),投機(jī)的概念 期貨投機(jī)，是指通過買入（或賣出）期貨合約，然后待價位合適時對沖平倉獲取利潤的行為。 期貨投機(jī)就是投入資本甘冒風(fēng)險以求預(yù)期利潤的交易行為。 期貨投機(jī)的作用 1、承擔(dān)價格風(fēng)險 2、促進(jìn)價格發(fā)現(xiàn) 3、促進(jìn)資源有效配置 4、提高市場

2、流動性 期貨投機(jī)與賭博的區(qū)別 1、風(fēng)險機(jī)制不同 2、運作機(jī)制不同 3、經(jīng)濟(jì)職能不同,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),投機(jī)概述,投機(jī)的原則 1.了解期貨市場和合約 2.制定交易計劃 3.建立交易記錄 4.模擬交易 5.確定可用于投機(jī)的風(fēng)險資本額 6.分散資金投入 7.不能以投機(jī)利潤支付日常開銷,投機(jī)的方法 1、選擇入市時機(jī) 2、平均買低法和平均賣高法 3、金字塔式買入賣出 4、平倉時運用止損指令,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),投機(jī)的原則與方法,價格（元/噸） 持倉數(shù)（手） 平均價（元/噸） 2050 0 2026.3 2040 0 0 2024.6 2030 0 0 0 2022 2025 0 0 0 0 201

3、9.4 2015 0 0 0 0 0 2015,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),金字塔買入法,價格 合約份數(shù) 平均價 5.20美元 0 0 0 0 0 5.13美元 5.15美元 0 0 0 0 5.10美元 5.10美元 0 0 0 5.06美元 5.05美元 0 0 5.03美元 5.00美元 0 5.00美元,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),金字塔賣出法,1.最重要的是人品。 2.判斷對錯并不重要，重要的在于正確時 獲取了多大利潤，錯誤時虧損了多少。 3.“好風(fēng)使盡帆” 4. 如果操作過量，即使對市場判斷正確，仍會一敗涂地。 5.承認(rèn)錯誤是件值得驕傲的事情。犯錯誤并沒有什么好羞恥的，只有知錯不改才是恥辱。

4、7.人對事物的認(rèn)識并不完整。 8.永遠(yuǎn)不要孤注一擲。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),索羅斯名言,投資的最高原則： 第一原則：盡量避免投資損失 第二原則：永遠(yuǎn)不忘第一原則 降低風(fēng)險的最佳途徑是： 第一，只有在幾率對你有利時才進(jìn)場 第二，要有連續(xù)進(jìn)場的準(zhǔn)備 我們也會有恐懼和貪婪，只不過在別人貪婪的時候我們恐懼，在別人恐懼的時候我們貪婪。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),巴菲特名言,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),理查 J. 費爾茲 (Richard J. Feltes) 是美國瑞富投資集團(tuán)公司（REFCO）的商品研究副總裁兼糧食、菜籽油高級分析師。他于1970年畢業(yè)于伊利諾斯大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)專業(yè)，1972年獲得南伊利諾斯大學(xué)MBA學(xué)

5、位，1973年就職于大陸谷物公司（Conti Commodity Services），1984年進(jìn)入REFCO公司。費爾茲以通過數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格而著稱。他所管理的REFCO全球研究網(wǎng)是期貨業(yè)實時分析的重要消息來源之一。REFCO公司吸引大量跨國食品公司成為其客戶的原因之一應(yīng)歸功于費爾茲在谷物價格上富有洞察力的分析。,交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,1. Plan your trades and trade your plans. 為你的交易做好計劃；按你的計劃執(zhí)行交易。 2. Hope and fear are the two greatest enemies of speculator

6、s. 期冀和恐懼是投機(jī)者兩個最大的敵人。 3. Keep records of your trading results. 對你的交易結(jié)果做好紀(jì)錄。 4. Maintain a positive attitude no matter how much you lose. 不管你輸了多少，保持一個積極的態(tài)度。 5. Avoid overconfidenceit could be your greatest enemy. 不要過分自信它會成為你最大的仇敵。 6. Continually set higher trading goals. 不斷設(shè)定更高的交易目標(biāo)。 7. Stops are the

7、key to success for many traderslimit your losses! 設(shè)定止損是很多交易者成功的關(guān)鍵限制你的虧損！ 8. The most successful traders are those that trade long term. 最成功的交易商是做長線交易的交易商。 9. Successful traders buy into bad news sell into good news. 成功的交易者在壞消息時買，在好消息時賣。 10. The successful trader is not afraid to buy high sell low. 成

8、功的交易者不怕在高位時買進(jìn)，在低位時賣出。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,11. Successful traders have a well scheduled planned time for studying the markets. 成功的交易者有效地規(guī)劃時間來進(jìn)行市場研究。 12. Successful traders set profit objectives for each trade they enter. 成功的交易者為他們所做的每一筆交易都設(shè)定有贏利目標(biāo)。 13. Do not collect the opinions of others bef

9、ore entering tradesfacts are pricelessopinions are worthless. In short successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others. 不要在還沒進(jìn)入交易以前就到處征求意見事實價值無窮、意見一文不值。簡單地說，成功的交易者不為別人的意見所左右。 14. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action. 不斷地為耐心、毅力、決斷和理性的行為作努

10、力。 15. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting. 決不要因為失去耐心而退出市場，也決不要因為迫不及待而進(jìn)入市場。 16. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often. 進(jìn)出市場不要過于頻繁。 17. The most profitable trading tool is simply following the trend. 最佳的

11、贏利方法就是跟隨趨勢。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,18. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to a definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend. 除非有充分的理由，不要改變你在市場里的頭寸。每做一手交易時，你都要

12、有可以依據(jù)的理由或者明確的計劃；此后，除非有明確的趨勢改變的跡象，不要退出。 19. Losses make the speculator studiousnot profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action. 賠錢不能贏利，但能使投機(jī)者細(xì)心鉆研。抓住每一次賠錢的機(jī)會，改進(jìn)你對市場行為的了解。 20. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but selfcontrol. Successful tradi

13、ng is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the success equation. 在投機(jī)里最難的任務(wù)不是預(yù)測，而是自我控制。成功的交易是艱難和令人煩惱的交易。在成功的等式里，你是最重要的因素。 21. The basic substance of price change is human emotion. Panic, fear, greed, insecurity, anxiety, stress, and uncertainty are the primary sources of s

14、hortterm price change. 價格變化的基本要素是人的情感。慌亂、恐懼、貪婪、不安全感、擔(dān)心、壓力和猶豫不定，這些是短期價格變動的主要根源。 22. Bullish consensus is typically at its high when the market is at a top. Also there are few bulls at major bottoms. 典型地說，當(dāng)市場在頂部時，異口同聲地看多的人最多；在重大的底部時，很少有人持牛市的觀點。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,23. Watch the spreads i.e., d

15、ont be bullish if inverses are narrowing. 注意多空套做。也就是說，如果逆差在減小，不要看多。 24. Remember that a bear market will give up in one month what a bull market has taken 3 months to build. 記住，一個月的熊市能讓你失去在三個月的牛市中所得到的。 25. Identify “the dominant factor” in each commodity. Be prepared to redefine this factor as condi

16、tions change. 找到每一種商品期貨里的“決定性因素”。隨著情況的變化，隨時準(zhǔn)備重新判定著一因素。 26. Expand your sources for market info but limit your sources for market opinion. 擴(kuò)充你的市場信息來源；限制你的市場意見來源。 27. Dont ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if market moves against you 20 from your peak profit point.

17、 永遠(yuǎn)不要讓一場大贏的交易轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)檩敿摇Ｈ绻愕内A利從最高處下滑了20，止損！ 28. It is never possible to know everything about anything. A commodity trader is in constant danger. 沒有人能夠做到萬事皆知。從事期貨交易總要面臨危險。 29. Successful trading requires four things. Knowledge, disciplined courage, money, and the energy to merge the first 3 properly. 交易要

18、具備四大要素才能成功：知識、控制得當(dāng)?shù)挠職?、金錢以及將這三者妥善結(jié)合在一起的精力。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,30. Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable. 機(jī)會，而下一個機(jī)會很可能是個贏利的機(jī)會。 31. The one essential ingredient to making money with money and

19、 keeping it is having an organized effort. 用錢來掙錢以及保住錢的一個根本要素是做事要有板有眼。 32. Unless you progress, you go backwards. Once you complete a trading goal it is crucial that you immediately set a new goal. 不進(jìn)則退。要緊的是一旦實現(xiàn)了一個交易目標(biāo)，你應(yīng)該立刻設(shè)定一個新的目標(biāo)。 33. The art of concentration can help you become a great trader. In

20、 other words, set aside time to think, plan, meditate, investigate, research, analyze, evaluate and select your trades carefully. 專心致志的藝術(shù)能夠幫助你成為一個杰出的交易者。也就是說，安排出時間來仔細(xì)地思考、計劃、琢磨、調(diào)查、研究、分析、衡量和選擇你的交易。 34. Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50 of them again in the market. 把你

21、的盈利一分為二，決不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市場上去冒險。 35. The key to successful trading is in knowing yourself and in knowing your stress point. 成功交易的關(guān)鍵是了解你自己以及知道你自己對壓力的承受能力。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,36. The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoidi

22、ng mistakes. 成功者和失敗者之間的真正區(qū)別，與其說是天生的能力，還不如說是在避免錯誤中表現(xiàn)的有素的訓(xùn)練。 37. The greatest risk for a commodity trader is to rely on hope alone. Never substitute hope for facts. The greatest loss is loss of selfconfidence. 期貨交易商的最大的錯誤就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永遠(yuǎn)不要用希望來取代事實。自信心的失落是最大的虧損。 38. You cannot perform very well for very

23、 long with your shoes nailed to the floor. In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead. 你不可能在原地不動而持久地表現(xiàn)出色。交易就像擊劍，不是快速運動，就是身敗劍下。 39. Remember Mark Twain: “only 10 of the people think. 10 think they think. The other 80 would rather die than think.” 記住馬克土溫說的：“只有百分之十的人思考，百分之十的人認(rèn)為他們思考，其余百分之

24、八十的人寧死也不愿思考?！?40. The man who goes to the top as a commodity trader does not do as he pleases. He has trained himself to choose correctly between the two freedoms: the freedom to do as he pleases, and the freedom to do what he must do. 期貨交易高手做事不是隨心所欲。他把自己訓(xùn)練得知道怎樣在兩種自由中作正確的選擇：隨心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,

25、投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,41. Since there is always the possibility of surprise in thin, dead markets, less capital should be risked there than in markets which are broad and moving. 因為在窄小的、停滯的市場里總有出乎意料的可能，在這樣的市場里應(yīng)該比在寬廣的、運動的市場里投入較少的資本來承擔(dān)風(fēng)險。 42. Limit the risk in any one trade to a maximum of 10 and the ri

26、sk in all open trades to a maximum of 25 of trading capital. (risk = pct of available capital). Determine this each day, adding profits and subtracting losses in open trades, and combine this net figure with your trading capital. 將你每一手交易的風(fēng)險控制在百分之十以內(nèi)。將你所有持倉的交易的總風(fēng)險控制在最多不超過交易資本的百分之二十五（風(fēng)險=可用資本的百分比）。每天對此

27、加以計算，在持倉交易中加上盈利，減去虧損，再把這一數(shù)字同你的交易資本結(jié)合起來。 43. It does not take much capital to trade a market if one has knowledge and understanding. St. Paul said, “when I am weak I am strong.” 如果你懂得和理解一個市場，做交易并不需要很多資本。圣保爾說過，“我在軟弱時則強(qiáng)壯”。 44. Speech may be silver but “Silence is Golden”. Traders with the golden touch

28、do not talk. 言談可能是銀子，可“沉默是金子”。有點金術(shù)的交易商稀于言談。 45. Common trading errors include: A) trading without good reasons. B) trading on hope rather than facts. C) overloading without regard for capital. 常見的交易錯誤包括：A、理由不充分的交易；B、基于希望多于事實的交易；C、與資本不相稱的超量交易。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,46. “I like the short side of

29、 the market because there is usually less company”. The mob is usually wrong. It is usually long. “我喜歡市場看空的一邊，因為通常這里人要少一些”。蜂擁之眾通常是錯的，它通常是看多。 47. A fatal mistake made by the fundamental trader is to take small profits. This is the result of limited vision ? extremes always seem silly to men of so cal

30、led good judgment. 初學(xué)交易的人的一個致命的錯誤是稍有贏利就出手。這是目光短淺的結(jié)果對所謂的明智的人來說，走極端總是愚蠢的。 48. Trade only when you have a good reason on an appraisal of fundamentals and using chart action for confirmation and timing of entry and exit. 只有當(dāng)你根據(jù)基本面的分析作出估價，運用圖表行為加以證實，并策劃好入市和出市的時間，只有當(dāng)這些加在一起為你提供了充足的理由時，再做交易。 49. Believe tha

31、t “the big one is possible” be there when it starts. Have the gross power to act, be rested mentally and physically, and finally let your profits run and cut your losses quickly. 相信“大的未必不可能”一旦大的發(fā)生了，不至于手忙腳亂。讓綜合的力量自己行動，精神上和肉體上都休息充分，最終讓你的利潤滾動，迅速地砍掉你的損失。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,50. Dream big dreams

32、and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long. 大膽做夢，敢于想象。很少有人把目標(biāo)設(shè)得過高。一個人從早到晚在思考什么，他最終就變成什么。 51.Commodity trading is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin and giving up as the greatest mistake. It is the art of accepting failure as a step

33、toward victory. 期貨交易是一門把恐懼看作是最大的罪惡，把放棄看作是最大的錯誤的藝術(shù)。它是一門把接受失敗看作是向勝利走近一步的藝術(shù)。 52.Have you taken a loss? Forget it quick. If you have taken a profit, forget it quicker. Dont let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work. 你輸過嗎？盡快忘了它。你要是贏過，忘它忘得更快一些。不要讓自我和貪婪妨礙清晰的思維和刻苦的工作。 53.The characteristics of

34、realizing bull market are:a. a fundamental bullish situationb. a reluctance by specs to buyc. an inversion or small carrying charge between cash and futuresd. business interests are either cautious or bullish 識別牛市有下列的特征：a.從基本面上看，有一個牛市的情勢b.專業(yè)商不情愿去買c.現(xiàn)貨同期貨之間倒掛或只有少量的持有費用d.商業(yè)興趣或者是持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，或者是看多,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),

35、交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,54.Always remember that weather markets are mercurial, extreme in price fluctuations, and very difficult to master. Forecasts of weather beyond a few days are not reliable. 始終記住，氣候市場是變幻無常，價格變動劇烈，極難把握的市場。幾天之外的天氣預(yù)報就不可靠。 55.One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes,

36、another door opens. The greater opportunity nearly always lies through the open door. 沒有人能改變昨天發(fā)生的事。當(dāng)一扇門關(guān)上時，另一扇門就打開了。越過打開的門，往往能找到更大的機(jī)會。 56.The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long a

37、s he recognizes this, he is safe. When he ignores it, he is lost. 對交易者來說，最深的秘密就是放棄自己的意愿，屈從于市場的意愿。市場是真理，它反映出它所承擔(dān)的所有的力量。只要交易者認(rèn)識到這一點，他就是安全的。當(dāng)他忽視這一點時，他就會失敗。 57.Somewhere a change is occurring that can make you rich. 在某一地方某種變化正在發(fā)生，它能使你變得富有。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,58.Beware of “fools disease” (i.e. W

38、aiting for trades that youre sure are 100 pct profitable.) It is better never to let yourself believe that you are 100 pct sure of anything. 警惕“愚人病”（也就是等待那些你百分之百肯定會贏利的交易）。你最好別讓你自己相信你能對任何一件事百分之百地肯定。 59.A known fundamental is a useless fundamental. 人人皆知的基本原理是毫無用處的基本原理。 60.Major trends are seldom broke

39、n unless market goes against trend for more than 3 consecutive days. 除非市場連續(xù)三天同潮流走反向，主要潮流很少會轉(zhuǎn)移方向。 61.If a market doesnt do what you think it should and youre tired of waiting ， youd better be out of it. 如果市場所做的不是你認(rèn)為它應(yīng)該做的，而你對等待已感到厭倦，你最好退出市。 62.Stay calm and maintain clear thinking when trading big pos

40、itions. 交易大宗頭寸時，要保持冷靜和頭腦清醒。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,63.Reevaluate your position in the market if charts have deteriorated and fundamentals have not developed as you expected. 如果圖形走弱，而且基本面的發(fā)展不像你所預(yù)期的那樣，重新對你在市場的頭寸作估價。 64.Above all be mentally prepared for the rigors of each trading day from the tim

41、e you get up each morning until you go to bed at night. 最重要的是在精神上對每個交易日的嚴(yán)峻場面作好準(zhǔn)備，從每天早晨你爬起來，一直到晚上回到床上。 65.Do whatever is necessary to stay on top of the markets you are trading. 竭盡全力，停留在你所交易的市場的頂部。 66.Believe that the market is stronger than you are. Do not try to fight the market. 相信市場比你要強(qiáng)大。不要企圖同市場抗

42、爭。 67.Beware of large positions that can control your emotions and feelings. In other words dont be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts. 對那些會控制你情緒波動的大頭寸保持警惕，也就是說，在市場上不要過分冒進(jìn)。與其暴贏，不如緩進(jìn)，穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打地積累資產(chǎn)。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,

43、68.Capital preservation is just as important as capital appreciation. 資本保存同資本增值一樣要緊。 69.When a markets gotten away and youve missed the first leg you should still consider jumping in even if it is dangerous and difficult. 如果市場已經(jīng)起步了而你錯過了第一輪烽火，你不妨仍然考慮中途介入，即使這樣做是危險而困難的。 70.Work hard at understanding th

44、e key factor(s) motivating the market(s) you are trading. In other words, the harder you work the luckier youll be. 交易時，努力去理解那些推動市場的關(guān)鍵因素。換句話說，越努力你就會越幸。 71.Remember that its better to trade a few big moves a year (and close them out profitably) than to trade constantly. 記住，與其不斷地交易，不如每年少交易幾手（并在贏利時出手）。

45、 72.Set an objective for each trade you enter and get out when you meet it. Dont be greedy! 為你的每一手交易設(shè)立一個目標(biāo)，達(dá)到目標(biāo)就出手。不要貪心！ 73.Remember that for many commodities ，politics are more important than economics. 記住，對許多商品來說，政治比經(jīng)濟(jì)更重要。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,74.Never add to a losing position. 不要在輸錢的頭寸上加碼。

46、 75.Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms. 挑選底部和頂部時要小心。 76. Worry about how much you can lose. Figure risk reward ratio ahead of trade. Strive for at least 3x potential profit vs. loss. 要想到你能夠輸多少錢，交易前就想好風(fēng)險回報比例。盡力做到可能的盈利要三倍于可能的虧損。 77. If it appears that lots of bulls are long ， be nervous! 如果看上去有很

47、多多頭在買，你就需要警惕起來。 78. If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be true youd better take profits. 如果你在市場上領(lǐng)先一籌，而且所有的消息都好得難以置信，你最好是收回你的盈利，出市走人。 79. The news always follows the market. 新聞總是尾隨市場之后。 80. There is only one side to the market; and it is not the bull side or the

48、bear side, but the right side. 市場只有一種，不是牛市或熊市，而是正確之市。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,81. A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. 如果有人想在這場游戲里生存，他必須相信自己和自己的判斷力。 82. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you. “It was never my wishing that made

49、 the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight.” Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves. You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight. 大浪潮為你創(chuàng)造大筆財富?！盀槲?guī)泶蠊P財富的從來就不是我的祈求。它從來都是因為我坐著不動?！蹦軌?/p>

50、既正確又坐著不動的人是不多見的。市場打不敗他們，打敗他們的是他們自己。一定要有堅韌的勇氣和智慧的耐心，你才做得到坐著不動。 83. To buy on a rising market is a most comfortable way of buying. Buy on a scale up. Sell on a scale down. 最不讓人擔(dān)心的買進(jìn)方法是在一個上升的市場里買進(jìn)。買高賣低。 84. Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initia

51、l transaction, dont make a second unless the first shows a profit. 商品沒有高到不該再買的時候，也沒有低到不該再賣的時候。不過，在最初的轉(zhuǎn)手后，除非第一手交易獲利了，不要再做第二手。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,85. Realize that the big money comes in the big swing. Whatever might seem to give a big swing, its initial impulse, the fact is that no matter who

52、 opposes it, the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine. 要意識到大筆錢來自大浪潮。無論什么是看上去會掀起大浪潮的，它最初的鼓動，事實是，不管是誰對抗它，大浪潮都無可避免地必然按照推動它的力量所決定的速度，沖到推動它的力量所決定的遠(yuǎn)處。 86. In the long run, commodity prices are governed but by one law ， the economic law of demand and su

53、pply. 從長遠(yuǎn)來看，決定商品價格的只有一條法則，供與求的經(jīng)濟(jì)法則。 87. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss ， that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul. 當(dāng)我接受了一手輸了的交易，我就不再為它煩惱。隔了一夜我就忘了。但是，如果我做得不，不肯接受我輸了的事實，這才會既對記賬本也對心靈造成損害。 88. It is profitabl

54、e to study your mistakes. 研究你的錯誤會給你帶來利潤。 89. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss. 在所有為投機(jī)而犯的愚蠢的錯誤里，很少有比賣掉會賺錢、買進(jìn)要賠錢的更愚蠢的了。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,90. Nothing is new in commodities! The game does not change and neither d

55、oes human nature. 期貨交易里沒有什么新東西！游戲沒有變；人性也沒有變。 91. In a bear market, it is always wise to cover if complete demoralization suddenly develops. 在熊市里，一旦突然全場士氣低落，你最好趕快平倉。 92. The principles of successful commodity speculation is based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the

56、mistakes that they have made in the past. 成功的期貨投機(jī)，其原理建立在這樣的假設(shè)上：人們在未來會重犯他們在過去犯過的錯誤。 93. In a bull market and particularly in booms, the public at first makes money, which it later looses simply by overstaying the bull market. 在牛市里，特別是在高峰的時候，公眾最初贏錢，然后就因為在牛市里停留太長，而全輸了回去。 94. A bull market needs to be f

57、ed every day ， a bear market only once a week. 牛市需要每天為它提供給養(yǎng)；熊市只需要一個星期為它提供一次給養(yǎng)。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,95. Never underestimate how much time is necessary to wash out a market that is long. 不要過低估量需要多少時間清洗一個看多的市場。 96. Never buy the first rally and never sell the first break. 不要在第一次回升時買進(jìn)，也不要在第一次下跌時

58、賣出。 97. Be advised that it is better to be more interested in the markets reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself. 最好是記住，與其對一則新聞本身感興趣，不如對市場對該則新消息的反應(yīng)感興趣。 98. Dont diversify ， concentrate on a few commodities. More diversity reduces amount you can speculate with. Also too much to

59、watch. 不要撒芝麻在幾種商品上。分布過散會減少你能用以投機(jī)的數(shù)量。況且要看管的太多。 99. Dont pioneer highs or lows. Let the market tell you a high or low has been made. 不要在高處或低處打沖鋒。讓市場告訴你什么是新高或新低。,期貨投機(jī)與套利,投機(jī),交易和成功風(fēng)險管理的125條箴言,100. Keep some perspective. Trees dont grow to the sky. Values dont go to zero. What are histories and recent highs and l