1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。Lex專欄蘋果股價攀升探因-Lex_AppleIsitthenewphone,thecashorjustanimalspirits?Afteraswoonthatbottomedinthemiddleoflastyear,ApplessharepriceiseversoslightlyhigherthanthepreviouspeakinSeptember2012.ThatwasthedayApplereleasedaflawedmapsprogramme,forwhichbossTimCooklate

2、rapologised.Thesharepricedroppedbynearlyhalfoverthefollowingeightmonths,asrevenuegrowthfellfrommorethan20percenttoroughlynothing.是因為新手機、現(xiàn)金，抑或只是“動物精神”？繼去年年中觸底以來，蘋果(Apple)的股價終于稍稍超越了2012年9月曾經(jīng)達到的峰值。那天蘋果發(fā)布了一個有缺陷的地圖程序，總裁蒂姆庫克(TimCook)后來為此道歉。之后的8個月里，股價下跌了近一半，營收增長從20%以上下降到幾乎為零。Thisyear,thepriceisup25percent.

3、At$100,Applessharesaretradingat14timesnextyearsexpectedearnings,theirhighestmultipleinthreeandahalfyears.Whathashappened?NotareturntovigorousgrowthApplesrevenuegrowthhasbeenstuckinthemid-singledigitsforayear.Thecompanyhas,however,beenpayingshareholderstohangaround.Ithasspent$72bnonsharerepurchasesan

4、ddividendsinthepasttwoyears.Applecanaffordit:ithas$165bnincashonhandandgenerated$49bninfreecashflowlastyear(morethanaquarterofrevenues).MorganStanleythinksApplewillincreasedividendpayoutsto$12bninfiscal2015,whichworksoutto$2pershare,a2percentyield.Andthebuybackprogrammecouldbeextended.今年股價回漲了25%。每股價

5、格為100美元，蘋果股價是其明年預期盈利的14倍，這是三年半以來的最高市盈率。發(fā)生了什么？肯定不是回歸強勁增長蘋果的營收增長在大約5%的水平停滯了一年。然而，該公司一直都以分紅挽留股東。過去兩年中，共支付720億美元用于股票回購和派發(fā)股息。蘋果付得起這筆錢：它手頭有1650億美元現(xiàn)金，以及去年創(chuàng)造的490億美元自由現(xiàn)金流（超過營收的四分之一）。摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)認為，蘋果在2015財年將會提高派息至120億美元，相當于每股2美元股息，即2%的股息收益率。而且回購計劃也可能延長。TheiPhone6,withabigscreen,isexpectedtolaunchinSe

6、ptember.Analystsestimates,whichcallforApplessalesinthefinalquarteroftheyeartohit$63bn,a$5bn,or9percent,riseovertheprioryear.Thatimpliesabiggerlaunch,inbothabsoluteandpercentageterms,thanthatoftheiPhone5s.Themarketmayfindeventhisconservative.Anticipatingthesuccessofnewproductsisspeculativeinanycase.擁

7、有大屏幕的蘋果iPhone6手機，預期將在9月發(fā)布。分析師預計，這將推動蘋果在今年末季的銷售達到630億美元，同比增長50億美元（9%）。這意味著發(fā)布后的銷售表現(xiàn)無論是從絕對數(shù)值還是從百分比衡量，都會超過iPhone5。市場可能認為這一預測仍趨保守。無論如何，期待新產(chǎn)品的成功是一種投機。Themostdisconcertingpossibilityisthattherallyisaboutneithercapitalallocationnorproductcycle.Apple,giventhepowerofitsbrandandthemoneymadeonitsstockinthepast,maybem