h

RMISecure,Competitive,

GlobalTheplaybookfor

UnitedStates

energystatecraftinanewtechnological

eraReport

/

September

2025ContactsLachlanCarey,

lcarey@SarahLadislaw,

sladislaw@BenjaminBartle,

bbartle@Copyrightsand

CitationLachlanCarey,

SarahLadislaw,BenjaminBartle,

JonEkberg,

SudeshnaMohanty,andEvanBrooks,

Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

The

playbook

for

United

States

energy

statecraft

in

a

new

technological

era,RMI,2025,

/insight/secure-competitive-global-the-playbook-for-united-states-energy-statecraft-in-a-new-technological-era.RMI

values

collaborationandaims

toaccelerate

the

energy

transition

through

sharingknowledgeandinsights.

We

thereforeallowinterestedparties

toreference,

share,and

cite

our

work

through

theCreative

CommonsCCBY-SA

4.0license.

/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.Allimagesusedare

fromiSunless

otherwisenoted.AcknowledgmentsThisreportisbasedonresearchandconvening

fundedbyBreakthrough

Energy.

The

findings

and

conclusions

containedhereinare

those

of

theauthorsand

donotnecessarilyreflect

thepositions

or

policies

ofBreakthroughEnergy.Weare

grateful

toall

who

contributed

their

time,insights,and

expertise

to

thisreport.Our

thanks

go

to

the

manypractitioners,policymakers,andindustryleaders

weinterviewed,

whoseperspectives

shaped

ouranalysis,and

to

the

colleaguesandpeers

who

generouslyreviewed

draftsand

offered

valuable

feedback.

Their

guidance

strengthened

this

workimmeasurably;anyremaining

errors

or

omissionsare

our

own.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/2AuthorsandAcknowledgmentsAuthorsBenjaminBartleEvanBrooksLachlanCareyJonEkbergSarah

LadislawSudeshnaMohantyAuthorslistedalphabetically.

Allauthors

fromRMI.h

RMiAboutRMIRockyMountainInstitute(RMI)isanindependent,nonpartisannonprofit

foundedin1982

that

transforms

global

energy

systems

throughmarket-driven

solutions

to

secureaprosperous,resilient,

clean

energyfuture

for

all.In

collaboration

withbusinesses,policymakers,

funders,

communities,and

otherpartners,

RMI

drivesinvestment

to

scale

clean

energy

solutions,reduce

energy

waste,andboostaccess

toaffordable

clean

energyin

ways

that

enhance

security,

strengthen

the

economy,andimprovepeople’s

livelihoods.RMIisactivein

over

50

countries.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/3Tableof

ContentsExecutiveSummary..............

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13Balance:

AlignSecurity,Economic,andEnvironmentalObjectives...

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21Environmentalimbalances.

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21Policy

implications

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22Benchmark:PrioritizeTechnologiesandPartnershipsStrategically

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23Sectorprioritization..........................................

23Friendshorecriticalmineralsandoverconcentratedmanufacturing

sectors

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27Leapfrogintonext-generationmanufacturingandclean,firmpower

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29Promoteexportsinmature,growingindustries

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30Createalternative

valuestreamsinareasof

decliningdemand.

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31Partnerprioritization....................

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31Build:TurnStrategyintoDealsandProjects

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37Partnerwithpurpose:High-impactenergyalliances

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38Streamline

theprocess:One-teamdeliveryforenergydeals

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.40Target

therisks:Deployafullfinancing

toolkitandreformagencies

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47Endnotes.....

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51Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/4TheUnited

Statesis

one

of

themost

energy-abundant

countriesin

the

world.

Yet,despiteitsamplenatural

resourcebaseand

world-classinnovation

capacity,

thenationis

failing

to

secure

the

energyand

economic

opportunities

of

the

21st

century.

A

decade

of

underinvestmentin

exportable

energy

technologiesandinfrastructurehasleft

Americanindustry

flat-footedasalliesand

competitorsalikerace

tobuild

and

finance

thenext

generationof

energy

systemsathome

and

abroad.1UScompaniesarerapidlylosingglobalmarket

sharein

strategic

sectorslikecleanmanufacturing,batteries,andpowerinfrastructure,not

just

toChina,but

toagrowinglistof

countries

with

stronger

industrialcoordinationandpublicinvestment.If

current

trendspersist,

theUnited

States

couldberunninganannual

tradedeficitof

$152billioninnewenergy

technologiesby2035.2

Meanwhile,China—already

theleadingglobalexporterof

such

technologies—is

on

track

to

earn

over

$340

billion

inannualenergy

technologymanufacturingexportrevenueby2035,

surpassing

the2024

oilrevenues

of

allGulf

states

combined.3Although

theUnited

Statesis

thelargest

oilandnatural

gasproducerin

the

worldanda

growing

exporter,

the

otherlargeand

faster-growing

economiesin

the

worldare

diversifying

their

energy

consumptiontoincludeamuch

greater

share

ofnon-fossil-basedresourcesand

technologyplatforms

for

economic,environmental,andenergy

securityreasons.

TheInternationalEnergy

Agencyreports

that

since

2019,annual

globalinvestmentinrenewable

electricityhas

surpassed

oiland

gas

extraction,rising

76%

over

five

years

to$760billionin

2024,

whileoiland

gas

investment

fellby

6%

over

the

same

period.4Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/5Executive

SummaryA

failure

to

competeabroadalso

weakens

energy

securityand

job

creationathome.

Without

a

clearstrategy

toalignits

capabilities

with

global

demand,

theUnited

Statesrisksbeingleft

out

of

the

verymarkets

thatits

owninnovationshelped

create.5

Reclaiming

aleadershiprole

willrequireamore

concerted

and

sustainedindustrial

effortathomeanda

coordinatedapproach

to

overseas

energy

financing

thatmatches

the

scale,

speed,and

flexibility

of

competitors

whileadvancing

Americaninterestsand

values.

The

focusof

thisreport

ison

thelatter(i.e.,

overseas

energy

finance

strategy).Theimplicationsareboth

economicand

strategic,affecting

commercial

competitivenessas

well

asgeopolitical

security.

As

then

Senatorand

current

Secretary

of

StateMarcoRubio

wrotein

2024,China’s

state-backed

financingandmanufacturing

juggernaut“nowleadsinmany

of

theindustries

that

willdetermine

geopolitical

supremacyin

the

21st

century,

from

shipbuilding

to

electric

vehicles.”6

In

contrast,

he

wrote,

theUnited

States“isina

weakerposition

thanit

was

in

thepast.”7As

one

of

the

world’sleading

energynations

—recognized

forits

dominancein

global

oilandnatural

gasmarketsandunmatchedrecord

of

energy

technologyinnovation

—

theUnited

Statesispoised

to

capitalize

on

surginginternational

demand

fornext-generation

solutions.

Thisis

America’s“energy

dominance”moment.If

thelast

centuryrevolvedaround

commodity-based

geopolitical

deals,

the

coming

decadeswillbelong

to

those

who

shape

technologieslike

solar,batteries,and

criticalminerals.However,

theseare

the

sameareas

whereChinaispullingahead.

Tocompete

effectively,

theUnited

Statesmust

execute

acomprehensive,

coordinated

strategy

that

financesand

exports

clean

energyprojects

with

speed,

scale,and

clear

strategic

direction

whileurgentlyrearmingitskey

financingarms

—

theUSInternationalDevelopment

FinanceCorporation(DFC)and

theExport-ImportBankof

theUnited

States(EXIM)

—

todeliver

these

deals

and

secure

theattendant

economicand

securitybenefits.

Justasimportant,

theUnited

States

can

draw

on

theunmatcheddepth

of

its

capitalmarkets

—

thelargest

singlemarketin

the

world

—auniqueadvantage

that,ifpaired

with

smart

de-riskingandpolicy

stability,

canmobilize

capitalata

scale

no

state

bank

orfinancial

system

canmatch.Throughrigorousanalysisand

expertinsight,

we

outlinea

clear,actionable

strategic

framework

for

theUnited

States

—

one

groundedin

threepowerfulimperatives:balance,benchmark,andbuild.

An

American

approach

thatbalancesenergy

security

with

commercial

competitiveness,

supply

chainresilience,andgeopolitical

strength;

thatbenchmarks

strategic

choices

withprecise

sector-by-sectorassessments

of

securityand

economic

opportunities;and

thatbuilds

transformative,high-impactprojects

overseas

throughagile,

targeted

financingand

deeper

coordination

with

strategicpartners,

willposition

theUnited

States

to

shape

global

energynormsrather

thanbe

shapedby

them.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/6Specifically,ourreportcallson

the

WhiteHouse

toconductregular

technology-neutral

energysecurityandeconomicopportunityreviewsthatmeasureevery

sectoragainst

energy

security

and

economicobjectivesand

scoreeachpartner’sportfolioon

whetheritmakes

America

safer,

stronger,

andmoreprosperous.

Thisanalyticbackboneanswers

thepresident’s“Unleashing

AmericanEnergy”directive

toassertUSenergydominance,ensuringoverseas

effortsreinforce

domesticresilience.Ourreportpresentsanillustrative,data-drivenmethodology

for

structuring

suchreviews,

providingpreliminarybenchmarkinginsightsandresultingrecommendations

for

30differentenergy

sectorsand

supplychainphases.The

findings

from

thesereviews

should

serveas

the

foundation

formaster

energyagreements(MEAs)

with

strategic

countriesandregions

that

focus

on

thehighest-impact

sectorsandpartners,

whileincorporating

disciplinedUSandalliedprivate

cofinancing,precisely

the

sort

of

outward-facing

strategy

theadministration

saysisneeded

to

counterChina’sBeltandRoadpushin

criticalminerals

and

energy

technology

supply

chains.RebuildingUSenergystatecraft:

Aligningpolicy,power,andpurposeTheUnited

Stateshasrebuiltits

energy

strengthathomebut

failed

to

convertitinto

globalinfluence.Attempts

toimprove

theUnited

States’

competitive

standing

over

successiveadministrationsandwithinpocketsof

Congresshaveexposedalack

of

policy

consistency,

strategic

focus,

governmentcapacity,andexpertise

toeffectivelycompeteon

the

global

stage.Despite

numerous

efforts

over

several

administrations

toimproveUS

tools

of

economic

statecraft,USagencies

tasked

with

overseas

energyfinancingandprojectdevelopment,

suchasDFC,EXIM,US

TradeandDevelopment

Agency(USTDA),

DepartmentofEnergy(DOE),andDepartmentof

Commerce’sInternational

Trade

Administration(ITA),

often

operatein

silos

with

overlappingmandatesandlimited

coordination.

Thishasled

to

fragmented

policy

executionandreduced

effectiveness,a

theme

that

emerged

consistentlyacrossinterviews

with

currentand

former

agency

staff.Yet

thisinstitutional

fragmentationalso

creates

anopening.

Themachinery

of

US

energystatecraftismisalignedandloosely

coordinated,

buta

coherent,

forward-looking

strategy

canquicklyreshapeit.

Against

thisbackdrop,

the

currentadministration’s

call

to“unleashAmerica’saffordableandreliable

energy

andnaturalresources”providesboth

thepolitical

mandateand

the

organizingprinciple

toknit

thosedisparateagenciesintoasingle,strategically

aligned,

technology-neutraleffort.8

Framingabundant

domestic

supplyas

thebackbone

ofnational

security,

thisreport

outlinesanapproach

that

demonstrateshow

coordinatedUS

financing

—

throughDFC,EXIM,

USTDA,DOE,andITA—

can

transform

overseas

projectsintoleverage

thatexpandsmarkets

for

US

firmsand

strengthens

thenation’s

economy

against

coercion.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/7Ourbenchmarkingmethodology

suggests

thathigh-impactagreements

shouldbepursued

withIndia,Australia,East

Africa,andEasternEurope,pairing

flagshipprojects

—ranging

fromgridand

storagemodernizationand

criticalmineralrefining

to

geothermal

servicesand

smallmodularreactor

deployment—

withUS

financingand

technicalassistance.

Theseinitiatives

canmeetacutedevelopment

needs,

reinforce

fragile

supply

chains,

andunlockmultibillion-dollarUS

export

opportunities.Eachagreement

shouldbequarterbackedbyan

energyagreement

deal

coordinator,

a

seasonedmarket

professional

empowered

to

synchronizeagency

tools,

share

data,and

close

complex

transactionsabroad.

Thesenewprocessesareinkeeping

witha

June

2025presidentialmemorandum

thatinstructs

agencies

to

streamline,

sharedata,andmove

at“the

speed

of

business.”9

Congress

couldauthorize

the

coordinator

positionin

StateDepartmentregionalbureaus,andappropriateahighly

flexible

energy

deal

fund,notdissimilar

from

theadministration’sproposed“AmericaFirstOpportunityFund.”10

This

wouldallow

the

coordinator

to

deploy

grants,

guarantees,

orblended-finance

tranches

on

shortnotice,

closing

gapsin

weeks

—notbudgetcycles

—andmaking

theUnited

Statesa

faster,more

dependable

counterweight

to

state-backed

competitors.Finally,Congress

shoulduseupcomingreauthorizations

to

expand

thebalance

sheetsand

toolkits

ofDFC

andEXIM,providing

them

withlargerlimitsandnewinstruments

—

suchaslocal-currency

guaranteesand

first-loss

catalytic

tranches

—

so

thatpublic

dollars

crowdinprivate

capital

wheremultipliersarehighest.

Among

otherrecommendations,

thereport

suggests

standingupaninnovative“pull

financingfacility”

toaddress

offtakerisk,

one

of

themost

commonly

citedbarriers

toinvestmentin

emerging

energy

technologies.

This

financingpunchresponds

directly

tobipartisan

calls

fora

strongerDFC

tokeeppace

with

China

while

channeling

federalresources

towardhigh-leverageprojects

thatboostUS

jobsand

security.Taken

together,

these

four

steps

translate

WhiteHouseprioritiesintoa

coherentplaybook

thataligns

strategy,speeds

execution,and

scalesimpact.The

goodnewsis

that

theUnited

Stateshas

successfully

confronted

similar

system-wide

challengesbefore,

andmodestreformsnow

can

deliver

outsizedresults.

After

the

Cold

War,

for

example,

Congress’s

Support

for

EastEuropeanDemocracy(SEED)

Act

of

1989

empowered

a

small

coordination

officein

the

StateDepartment

to

alignmore

than

20

agencies’

efforts.LeveraginglimitedUS

funds,ithelped

transform

Central

andEastern

Europe,

a

strategy

so

effective

that10recipient

countries

joined

theNorth

Atlantic

Treaty

Organization(NATO)

and

others

forgedlastingpartnerships.11

Morerecently,

that

same

officehelped

coordinate

among

agencies,

the

WhiteHouse,

and

Congress

toprovide

approximately

$45billioninrapid

energy

aid

to

allies

afterRussia’s

2022invasion

of

Ukraine.12

These

cases

show

that

clear

goals,

strictbenchmarks,and

a

flexible

coordinatingmechanismcan

turnlimitedresourcesintomajor

strategic

gains.Thisagendais

groundedinurgency;

the

worldisnot

waitingand

thereis

a

narrowpolitical

window

for

domesticaction.Othernationsareaggressively

financingand

standardizing

the

energylandscape

in

their

favor.13

For

theUnited

States,

thisisaboutmore

thanplayingdefense;it

is

a

chance

tolead

the

nexteraof

energy.UpcomingreauthorizationsinCongress

of

bothDFC

andEXIM

shouldbe

viewedas

opportunities

tonot

onlyimprove

the

capabilities

of

two

vital

governmentagencies,butalso

torebalanceUSenergy

strategy,identify

strategicpriorities,andbuild

theinstitutionalcapacityto

catalyzenew

spending,

strengthenalliances,and

secure

thenation’s

own

energy

future.

An

American

approach

thatbalances

energy

security

with

environmental

stewardship,benchmarks

decisions

with

data,andbuildsrealprojects

withpartners

willposition

theUnited

States

to

shape

global

energynorms

rather

thanbe

shapedby

them.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/8IntroductionTo

competein

the

emerging

global

energylandscape,

Washingtonmustmovebeyondadhocdealsand

fragmentedagencymandates

towardaunified

strategy

that

channels

America’s

diplomaticreach,

commercialinnovation,and

development

financeinto

the

technologiesandpartnerships

that

canbest

meetits

strategic

objectives.

Toachieve

this,

ourreportproposesa

three-partbalance,benchmark,build

framework,consistingof(1)balancingpolicyobjectives,(2)benchmarking

strategicpriorities,

and(3)buildinginstitutionalandoperationalcapacity.

Together,

thesepillars

aim

to

convert

America’s

strengthsintolasting

geopoliticalinfluenceand

commercialadvantage.BalanceUS

energypolicy

—athomeandabroad

—haslonglurched

between

ideological

extremes,privilegingone

fuel,

technology,

orheadline

objectiveat

the

expense

of

others.

Theresultisa

fragmented

toolkitthat

frustratesallies,

detersinvestors,andleaves

critical

supply

chains

vulnerable.

Torestore

coherenceand

credibility,

Washingtonmust

adopt

a

consciouslybalanced

approach

that

weighs

threeinseparableaimsin

every

overseas

deal:bolstering

energy

security

for

theUnited

Statesanditspartners,

capturingeconomic

opportunitiesin

fast-growing

cleantechmarkets,

and

advancing

environmental

stewardship

that

resonateslocallyand

globally.Balance

doesnotmean

splitting

the

difference;itmeansrecognizing

theinterdependence

of

these

goals,

sequencingactions

so

thatprogress

on

onereinforces

—not

erodes

—

the

others,and

embedding

clear

guardrails(frommethane

standards

tolocal-contentrules)

thatkeepanysinglepriority

from

derailing

the

wider

strategy.BenchmarkWithlimited

diplomaticbandwidthandpublic

capital,

Washingtonneeds

to

directits

energy

toolkit

where

itprovides

the

greatest

strategicbenefit.

A

thoroughbenchmarkingprocess

—based

on

techno-economic

dataand

geostrategicalignment

—

canidentify

which

technologies,

value

chain

segments,andpartnercountries

deserve

that

focus.Regular

energy

securityriskand

economic

opportunityreviews,led

from

the

WhiteHouse,

wouldincorporate

thisanalysisinto

decision-making,

ensuring

that

scarceresources

go

toward

strategic

technologiesandpartnershipsmostlikely

tokeep

theUnited

Statesanditsallies

safer,

stronger,andmoreprosperous.Thisreportoffersanillustrativemethodology

for

suchareview.

The

first

stepassesseseach

energysectorbasedon

twoquestions:How

vulnerableis

theUnitedStates

to

supplychain

disruptionshere(energy

securityrisk)?andHowmuchbusinesscouldUS

firms

winif

the

sectorgrows(economicopportunity)?Plotting

these

scoreshelpsdeterminehoweach

sector

shouldbecategorizedintoone

of

four

strategicpaths:(1)

friendshore—

work

with

trustedallies

to

securecriticalinputs;(2)leapfrog—

backnext-generation

technologies

thatcan

surpass

foreignincumbents;(3)exportpromotion—help

mature,competitiveUSindustries

scaleabroad;and(4)alternative

valuecreation

—

guide

decliningindustries

towardnew

sourcesof

value.Finally,eachpathaligns

with

theappropriatepartnershipgoal:Friendshoringmakes

America

safer,leapfrogginganddevelopmentdealsmakeit

stronger,andexportpromotionmakesitmoreprosperous.

This

simple

triage

showspolicymakers

whereUSoverseas

financing

will

yield

thegreatest

strategicbenefit.Secure,

Competitive,

Global:

Theplaybook

forUnited

States

energy

statecraftin

anew

technological

era

/9BuildStrategicprioritizationmust

translateintoinvestments

that

yield

tangibleand

durableassets.

Thisincludes

forginghigh-impact

energypartnerships(backedby

flexible

fundsand

staffed“deal

teams”),streamlininginteragencyprocessesunderaccountableleadership,and

deployinga

comprehensivetoolk