Chapter06DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB6-11LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess2,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations3,Describetherationaldecisionmaker4,Contrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedrationalapproachestodecisionmaking5,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess6-22LearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:6,Identifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem7,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertainty8,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstyles6-33DecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasnecessaryresourcestoact管理者不太可能將某些事情作為問題，如果他們不具有采取行動(dòng)的必要資源1,Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess6-44TheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentification“Mysalespeopleneednewcomputers”IdentificationofDecisionCriteriaPriceWeightWarrantyScreentypeReliabilityScreensizeAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaReliability10Screensize8Warranty5Weight5Price4Screentype3DevelopmentofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaImplementationofanAlternativeGatewayEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshibaSelectionofanAlternativeAcerCompaqGatewayHPMicromediaNECSonyToshiba6-5?PrenticeHall,20025Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviable可行的alternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)6-66

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

6-77EvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights6-88DecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved6-992,Explainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizations6-10103,DescribetherationaldecisionmakinglRationalDecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent前后后一一致致的的,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’sbesteconomicinterestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests6-1111AssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferences偏好areconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff6-12124,ContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingBoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparameters參數(shù)ofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice滿意-acceptsolutionsthatare““goodenough””IsacommonerrorcommittedintheDMprocess?escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed6-13135,Explaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocessRoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis6-1414WhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotionsDecisionsbasedonethicalvaluesorcultureDecisionsbasedonsubconsciousdataDecisionsbasedonskills,knowledge,ortrainingIntuitionAffect-initiateddecisionsExperienced-baseddecisionsValuesorethics-baseddecisionsSubconsciousmentalprocessingCognitive認(rèn)知的的-baseddecisions6-15156,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialsteps順序的步驟驟usedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicit清楚的statementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking6-16166,IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemTypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed6-1717TypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem6-18187,Differentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDecision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome6-1919ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLift6-2020DecisionTreesDecisionpointOutcomepointBranchofsolutionprobabilityValueoflossandprofitExpectedValue=Valueoflossandprofit*probability21exampleP125Rent20,000sq.ftRent12,000sq.ftstrong0·70weak0·30strong0·70weak0·30$320,000$50,000$240,000$130,000Expectedvalue320*0··70+50*0··30=239Expectedvalue240*0·70+130*0·30=20722例:某公司計(jì)劃劃開發(fā)一種種新產(chǎn)品,設(shè)計(jì)了豪豪華型和普普及型兩個(gè)個(gè)型號(hào):個(gè)型號(hào):豪華型:成功盈利800萬元元，成功的的概率為60%,失敗虧損300萬元元.失敗敗的概率為為40%;普及型:成功盈利600萬元元.成功功的概率為為70%.失敗虧損30萬元元.失敗敗的概率為為30%。。23決策方案自自然狀態(tài)態(tài)及概率支支付值期期望值值豪華型普及型成功0·60失敗0·40成功0·70失敗0·30800-300600-30800*0·60+（-300）*0·40=360600*0·70+（-30）*0·30=41124Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximaxchoice-optimisticmaximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff最大最大選選擇maximinchoice-pessimisticmaximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff最大最小選選擇minimax-minimizethemaximum“regret”最小化其最最大遺憾6-2525PayoffMatrix收益矩陣6-2626RegretMatrix(遺憾矩陣)6-27278,Describethedifferentdecision-makingstylesDecision-MakingStyles決策風(fēng)格twodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmakingwayofthinking-differsfromrationaltointuitivetoleranceforambiguity模糊承受力-ahighneedforconsistencyandorderinmakingdecisionsothatambiguityisminimized.definefourdecision-makingstylesDirective-fast,efficient,andlogicalAnalytic-carefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituationsConceptual-abletofindcreativesolutionsBehavioral-seekacceptanceofdecisions6-2828Decision-MakingStylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity6-2929Wha