1汽車行業(yè)：26年數(shù)據(jù)點評系列之一乘用車25年復(fù)盤和26年展望：從“量穩(wěn)價緩”到“價升量穩(wěn)”量彈性為2.1%2）置換補(bǔ)貼：若順延一年，“乘用車保有量提升”庫銷比短期上行主要是由于終端消費者觀望情緒較濃（多數(shù)地區(qū)以舊自主車企或?qū)⒏鶕?jù)當(dāng)前需求主動調(diào)控產(chǎn)量，考慮后續(xù)以舊換新政策延續(xù)后的需求釋放，短期庫存風(fēng)險不大。將或已經(jīng)）出現(xiàn)標(biāo)的：長城汽車(A/H)、上汽集團(tuán)，建議關(guān)注：江淮汽34%25%16%8%-1%01/2504/2506/2508/2511/2501/26-10%汽車滬深300 2--敏實集團(tuán)銀輪股份福耀玻璃福耀玻璃--3 6 28 4 6 6 8 8 9 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 265 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 31 7 326 穩(wěn)”筑基弱于季節(jié)性規(guī)律，或主要系部分地區(qū)以舊換新補(bǔ)貼政策暫停帶來觀望增加影響。乘0007 乘用車行業(yè)后續(xù)政策核心目標(biāo)或為提升ASP“走出通縮”。24年以舊換新政策月轉(zhuǎn)正后繼續(xù)提升。價格企穩(wěn)回升主要系分價格區(qū)間銷量分化，在預(yù)期26年以舊換新政策延續(xù)背景下，消費者考慮新能源購置稅退坡幅度將大概率小于補(bǔ)貼金額，20萬以下新能源購車需求觀望增加影響。日發(fā)布的報告《如何推演“反內(nèi)卷”下的行口歐盟關(guān)稅政策仍有調(diào)整可能性的情況下2）國內(nèi)車企份額表現(xiàn)分化下保就業(yè)和產(chǎn)能利用率的需求3）國內(nèi)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈安全和內(nèi)在競爭力的提升，我們按照以下8 束條件的補(bǔ)貼政策提升乘用車行業(yè)ASP，同時通過約束條件可以實現(xiàn)一定的供給側(cè)例如可能對燃油車進(jìn)行購置稅優(yōu)惠政策來守住行業(yè)銷量的下限，政策落地方式符合0.4%-0.1%----乘用車ASP同比增速（擬合）數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局，交強(qiáng)險，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)乘用車ASP同比增速（擬合）數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家統(tǒng)計局，交強(qiáng)險，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)9 致透支大幅減少+以舊換新政策延續(xù)增換購需求依然有彈性，預(yù)計26年國內(nèi)終端需量支撐當(dāng)前的增換購需求增量3）26年乘用車以舊換新政策延續(xù)，同時依然以報及以下保有量為1600萬輛，乘用車24年實際報廢回收量約630萬輛，對應(yīng)符合報廢廢后購買新車占比約46%。注冊登記的汽油乘用車均符合報廢補(bǔ)貼條件，截至24年底月30日前注冊登記的汽油乘用車均符合報廢補(bǔ)貼條件，則截至25年底其保有量預(yù)計國內(nèi)新車銷量為1130萬輛假設(shè)26年乘用車報廢率和報廢回收后購買新 0每年（預(yù)計）新增的符合報廢條件的歷史當(dāng)年銷量數(shù)據(jù)來源：公安部，商務(wù)部，交強(qiáng)險，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展 0 和邊際效應(yīng)遞減，假設(shè)26年乘用車置換率為8.4%,將對26數(shù)據(jù)來源：公安部，商務(wù)部，交強(qiáng)險，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展用車行業(yè)庫存為470.8萬輛，其中12月乘用車行業(yè)庫存減少3.7萬輛。從動態(tài)庫銷比為2.48，12月行業(yè)動態(tài)庫銷比短期上行主要是由于終端消費者觀望情緒較濃（多數(shù)地區(qū)以舊換新政策已暫停），疊加車企排產(chǎn)端調(diào)整較慢所致，我們認(rèn)為后續(xù)頭部自 0比+21.5%；25年乘用車?yán)塾嬇l(fā)銷量為3005.9萬輛，同比0乘用車出口銷量/左軸同比增速/右軸0乘用車批發(fā)銷量/左軸同比增速/右軸00 國品牌乘用車終端銷量份額為65.8%，同比+3.2pct；歐系、日系、美系、韓系份額 20/0120/0520/0921/0121/0521/0922/0122/0522/09中國品牌市占率-整體/左軸中國品牌市占率-剔除新能源/左軸新能源拉動/右軸 20152016 德系/歐系——美系 派系車企24/0124/0224/0324/0424/0524/0624/0724/0824/0924/1024/1124/1225/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0625/0725/0825/0925/1025/1125/12比亞迪(含騰勢）9.7%16.8%15.4%吉利汽車7.7%8.6%7.1%7.4%7.5%7.1%6.9%7.8%7.8%8.6%8.7%9.3%10.4%9.8%長安汽車7.3%8.0%6.0%5.7%5.4%4.9%5.0%4.6%4.7%5.8%6.0%6.0%7.1%6.4%6.4%6.4%6.3%5.5%5.8%5.7%5.5%5.6%5.2%5.1%奇瑞汽車5.3%5.5%4.0%4.9%5.3%5.2%5.6%5.2%5.1%5.3%5.6%6.8%7.4%6.3%5.4%5.3%5.6%5.3%5.8%5.5%5.4%6.1%5.5%5.4%長城汽車3.8%3.9%3.1%3.0%2.9%3.0%2.8%2.6%2.3%2.8%2.8%2.9%3.1%2.8%2.6%2.9%3.1%3.0%3.0%2.9%3.1%3.1%3.0%3.1%廣汽乘用車2.9%2.7%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.1%3.2%2.9%2.7%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.8%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.4%2.7%2.4%2.3%2.0%2.1%2.4%賽力斯汽車2.0%2.1%2.5%2.4%2.2%0.9%0.8%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.6%2.7%理想汽車2.1%2.1%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.2%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.4%上汽乘用車0.8%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.8%2.0%2.1%零跑汽車0.7%0.9%0.5%0.8%0.7%2.1%2.5%2.6%2.4%2.3%2.5%蔚來汽車0.5%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.6%2.0%小鵬汽車0.4%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.9%0.8%2.0%合資&外資一汽大眾9.4%8.8%7.3%7.4%7.0%7.6%7.1%6.5%5.9%6.5%6.5%5.5%8.2%6.6%6.8%6.5%6.6%6.9%5.9%5.7%6.2%6.4%5.8%6.4%上汽大眾7.0%5.6%5.0%5.0%4.6%4.5%5.3%4.8%4.9%5.1%5.0%5.3%6.2%4.6%4.4%4.9%4.8%4.8%4.6%4.3%3.8%3.9%3.5%3.8%上汽通用五菱3.6%5.0%4.3%3.5%3.3%2.6%3.5%3.2%4.1%5.9%5.2%4.5%3.0%6.3%5.3%4.6%4.2%3.9%4.2%4.8%4.8%6.0%5.3%2.8%特斯拉中國2.9%4.0%2.1%3.4%3.3%2.8%2.5%3.0%3.1%3.0%2.2%3.9%2.1%2.9%2.4%2.9%3.2%3.6%4.1%廣汽豐田3.1%3.3%3.6%3.5%3.9%4.3%3.5%3.2%3.0%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.9%3.1%3.3%3.6%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.3%3.3%3.2%3.1%3.1%3.6%3.2%2.3%2.6%2.9%2.7%2.3%2.1%2.3%2.6%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.8%2.8%2.3%2.5%2.0%2.2%華晨寶馬3.4%2.9%3.3%3.1%3.3%3.6%3.0%2.7%2.0%2.3%2.5%2.7%2.1%2.5%2.4%2.6%2.5%2.3%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.4%上汽通用3.4%2.7%2.8%2.9%2.4%2.2%2.2%2.0%2.0%2.1%2.4%2.5%2.7%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.3%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.3%一汽豐田3.4%2.6%3.0%3.6%3.3%3.6%4.1%3.7%3.3%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.1%3.5%3.6%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.3%2.9%2.8%2.6%2.7%北京奔馳2.6%2.4%3.0%3.3%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.7%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.9%2.2%2.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%廣汽本田2.7%2.1%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.0%2.5%2.1%2.0%2.0%2.2%北京現(xiàn)代0.9%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%長安福特0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%沃爾沃0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.2%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.7% 二、12月PHEV滲透率表現(xiàn)亮眼，繼續(xù)關(guān)注“自主品牌及高端SUV”競品組合的表現(xiàn)其中，純電動和插電式混合動力交強(qiáng)險12月銷量分別34.3%/24.3%，同比分別+6.0pct/+5.806040800600400200新能源滲透率（批發(fā)口徑）新能源滲透率（終端口徑） 2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年20新能源滲透率（批發(fā)口徑）新能源滲透率（終端口徑）——BEVPHEV——HEV——新能源滲透率新能源乘用車渠道庫存整體處于相對正常的位置?？紤]到21年之前新能源乘用車庫存較少，21年以來的渠道庫存變化基本可以反映新能源乘用車庫存的情況。根據(jù)中汽協(xié)和交強(qiáng)險數(shù)據(jù)，25年12月新能源乘用車渠道庫存減少24.4萬輛12月底新能源乘用車庫銷比約2.0。 注：新能源乘用車庫銷比=截至25年3月渠道庫存累計值/近3個月終端銷量根據(jù)中汽協(xié)，25年12月新能源乘用車月度出口量為29.4萬輛，同比+135.9353025新能源乘用車出口銷量/左軸同比增速/右軸00新能源乘用車批發(fā)銷量/左軸同新能源乘用車?yán)塾嫵隹?左軸累計同比增速/右軸00新能源乘用車?yán)塾嬇l(fā)銷量/左軸累計同比增 建議關(guān)注“自主加速平替合資燃油車+高端SUV”競品組合的表現(xiàn)。我們在24年我們嘗試建立一個可持續(xù)跟蹤、模型可不斷進(jìn)化且有數(shù)據(jù)庫和模型作為支撐的方法論，對一些市場高度關(guān)注的重磅車型的銷量進(jìn)行有效跟蹤分析，我們在月度跟蹤點其中，20萬以下建議關(guān)注將繼續(xù)演繹PHEV加速平替合資燃油車邏輯的競品現(xiàn)亮眼2）比亞迪漢組合中，銀河星耀8和風(fēng)云A9上市以來份額表現(xiàn)亮眼3） 778564.99.%0.7%6.0856414778564.99.%0.7%6.08564143011份額變化2101-21052106-22012202-22112212-23072308-24032404-25102101-25122512份額2512份額環(huán)比宋L6.%%10.10.9%0.0%0.0%昂科威.-0.0.0%0.1%-3.4.2%-4-4.10.0%0.0%0.0%銀河M97.4%7.%7.7%7.7%0.0%0.0%領(lǐng)克086.%-1.6.% 6.5%%紅旗HS5%4.3-3.-2.-1.-1.. 6.2%%豹54.5. 5.5%%零跑C166.0% 5.4%%皇冠陸放3.2%0.4%0.6%-0.-0. 5.3%%比亞迪唐-0.5.28.3%-3.-11.9%% 4.6%坦克3004.9%.-2.0.% 4.3%-0.寶馬X1%%-3. -4. %%-1捷途旅行者9.7%9.7%-%3.%-02%小鵬G64.64.6-2.%3.%3.0%-0奇駿 -1. 1%-0.2.-2.4%4%0.1%-15.3%2.7%-0.傳祺GS8-0.2.4%0.4%-1.-1.%%2.7%0.25%25奧迪Q33.4%3.4%-2.909052.6%%捷途山海T2%06%062.0%%奔馳GLB級-1.-0.-0.2.0%-4-4-1.%1.9%-0嵐圖知音3.%%1.7%-06%途昂%2.2.11.7%精靈#50.3%%1.4%0.4747精靈#12.8%2.8%-0-1.0.%%1.3%0.%凱迪拉克XT4-0.-0.9%比亞迪海獅070.8%深藍(lán)S09%%0.5%-0.星途星紀(jì)元ET0.7%0.%0.5%-0.冠道%-4-40.4%0.0%0.0%大眾ID.UNYX0.4%冒險家01010.3%%深藍(lán)G3180.%0.%0.%0.3%-0.1%本田UR-V-1.-1.0.2%沃爾沃EX300.%0.%0.1%0.0%0.0%極越070.0%%0.0%%護(hù)衛(wèi)艦070.0%4.0-2.-1.%0.0%%高端SUV競品組合中理想L6、小米YU7上市以來份額表現(xiàn)亮眼。在《新格局下乘用車行業(yè)系列報告十一：誰會成為下一個“爆款”？》報告中我們指出從行業(yè)利潤分布來看，30萬以上區(qū)間乘用車?yán)麧櫿夹袠I(yè)穩(wěn)態(tài)利潤中樞約70%，建議關(guān)注在76216889614107621688961410份額變化2512份額環(huán)比特斯拉ModelY%%%% %% 8%88%8%%6%66%6.%極氪7X2%2%%%-%1%1%%%%%.%%% %%8%8% . %凱迪拉克XT5%.%%%%%%%2%2%%領(lǐng)克9001.2%21.2%-0.%-4.3%-3.3%1.%0.2%蔚來ES68%8航海家%%%%%%%%% 20萬以上20萬以上0-10萬（含10萬）20萬以上和12.1%。從車企來看，吉利汽車、長城汽車和長安汽車新能源乘用車25年12月滲透率分別為59.7%、56.6%、59 20Q120Q420Q120Q4 20/0120/0620/1121/0421/0922/02華東：上海市、江蘇省、浙江省、安徽省、江西省、華南：廣東省、廣西壯族自治區(qū)、海南省，以及香港20Q120Q421Q322Q280%70%60%50%40%30%20%21/0121/0321/0521/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1124/0124/0324/0524/0724/0924/1125/0125/0325/0525/0725/0925/11——一線城市二線城市三線城市——四線城市五線城市——總體三、重點結(jié)構(gòu)/車型跟蹤355